VREF Valuations

[squeaky.stow]

What are the opinions on Mooneyspace about the value of a VREF valuation?  If you were considering buying or selling, would you pay for one? Do they accurately reflect market values?

I know that Jimmy Garrison was planning to do his own version but I have not seen anything on that topic lately.

 

[bradp]

They at least get you in the ballpark - I think they tend to over value avionics. 
 

If you’re an AOPA member you get them included.  Nonsense paying for one. 

[gsxrpilot]

I personally don't like VREF. I don't believe it reflects actual market value.

Just my $0.02

[Oldguy]

If you use one of the fill-in-the-blank VREF tools, you can get a wide variance in value depending on the tool you use. AOPA, Trade-a-Plane, and The Mooney Flyer all have tools to give you a value, and none of them will be the same, and some not even close to each other.

If I were to want a realistic value for a Mooney, I would probably trust the one from @jgarrison above any other.

[rbridges]

1 hour ago, squeaky.stow said:

What are the opinions on Mooneyspace about the value of a...

 

Post any plane at any price, and we'll pick your deal apart.  That's a mooneyspace guarantee. 

[cferr59]

Overpriced!  But any Mooney is better than a cramped Bonanza

[gsxrpilot]

Seriously though... I've had the best luck doing two things. 

1. Pick a model, i.e. M20K 252, and then make a spreadsheet that has a side by side comparison of every single 252 available for sale for the next month. List everything such as hours, avionics, condition, useful load, etc... That will give you a pretty good idea of the market.

2. Reach out privately to some of the more experienced members on this forum. Share the link to the specific plane and ask them to evaluate it for you. That gives a pretty good idea of the market as well.

[tigers2007]

Vref is not that thorough. I can't imagine someone paying for a Vref valuation. Also, they value certain items at $0 such as a fully functional legacy autopilot. IMHO that adds value; maybe not much but a functional autopilot is worth something considering that it is near five figures to get a new a/p installed. I don't think it even valued my NGT-9000 or GTN-650; I had to "manually" add it in. Kelly Blue/Black Book is just as worthless. Like everyone else is leaning here, the market and serious buyers set the true value. I tend to go by eBay values (select the "Sold" search filter to see what things really sold for...). Seems like values are high right now too. Mid-time C's are fetching $30-50 depending on the panel and paint. Does it not having a gear up landing really matter? Are "complete logs" really that important? I'm missing engine log #1 out of 3. The engine is on its third overhaul so does Log #1 really matter? Vref can't factor any of that besides the ridiculous "add in what-you-think-the-value-is" box. 

[skydvrboy]

2 hours ago, squeaky.stow said:

What are the opinions on Mooneyspace about the value of a VREF valuation?  If you were considering buying or selling, would you pay for one? Do they accurately reflect market values?

I know that Jimmy Garrison was planning to do his own version but I have not seen anything on that topic lately.

 

Send a PM to Jimmy and he will give you (free) a copy of his guide in exchange for a few personal details to help with his database.  It will produce by far the most accurate Mooney valuations of any tool out there.

Edit:  This is not some ploy of Jimmy's to send you marketing emails constantly either.  The only emails I have ever gotten from him are answers to specific questions I have asked.  He's a straight shooter.

[jgarrison]

1 hour ago, skydvrboy said:

Send a PM to Jimmy and he will give you (free) a copy of his guide in exchange for a few personal details to help with his database.  It will produce by far the most accurate Mooney valuations of any tool out there.

Edit:  This is not some ploy of Jimmy's to send you marketing emails constantly either.  The only emails I have ever gotten from him are answers to specific questions I have asked.  He's a straight shooter.

Not yet! The emails are backed up in my outbox.

[kortopates]

1 hour ago, tigers2007 said:

Vref is not that thorough. I can't imagine someone paying for a Vref valuation. Also, they value certain items at $0 such as a fully functional legacy autopilot. IMHO that adds value; maybe not much but a functional autopilot is worth something considering that it is near five figures to get a new a/p installed. I don't think it even valued my NGT-9000 or GTN-650; I had to "manually" add it in. Kelly Blue/Black Book is just as worthless. Like everyone else is leaning here, the market and serious buyers set the true value. I tend to go by eBay values (select the "Sold" search filter to see what things really sold for...). Seems like values are high right now too. Mid-time C's are fetching $30-50 depending on the panel and paint. Does it not having a gear up landing really matter? Are "complete logs" really that important? I'm missing engine log #1 out of 3. The engine is on its third overhaul so does Log #1 really matter? Vref can't factor any of that besides the ridiculous "add in what-you-think-the-value-is" box. 

That's not how VREF works though, its not that sophisticated. Vref only begins with the assumption that the base airframe value comes with the included equipment when it left the factory. With older planes who's panels  don't have any of the original antique equipment it gets more complicated since newer radios that replaced older radios with similar function aren't exactly upgrades either - that were market research becomes most important. But it's intended that the user of Vref will add in the market price for each additional option the plane has which would certainly include GPS's, AP's, etc. But Vref doesn't have list of options and their value - you have to get that info elsewhere for how to add options. Jimmy, as already mentioned, is your best source for that. But with all those caveats, the Vref quote is only as good as the data you enter to build the quote. I don't think its that far off on airframe and engine valuation alone but in fairness I haven't looked in some time so really don't have recent experience but back when Jimmy published updates every year on the Mooney airframes it wasn't that different but Jimmy was invaluable for figuring out how much to value different options. Kelly Blue book is bet better in that it does list values for some options to help but not as thorough as what Jimmy used to publish in the MAPA log. Vref, Blue Book and Jimmy's values were all a bit different but not that far off.

Personally, IMO, your missing engine log is not an issue assuming future logs leave no doubt that the engine was fully majored. Only because some "overhauls" only really qualified as repairs since they didn't include everything required for a major overhaul by the manufacturer so they don't legally reset the TSMOH clock, so a proper log review should be able to discern that. 

I should probably add that these tools really aren't all that helpful in valuing 35-70K vintage airplanes that no longer resemble how they left the factory. Its really best to by market research at that point.

Edited February 7, 2020 by kortopates

[Mooneymite]

I've found Vref to be very consistent.  When I'm buying, it overvalues everything.  When I'm selling, everything is undervalued.

[Mooney217RN]

I sold my E Model about 15 months ago +/-  Vref was pretty close to reality.  It overvalued my LoPresti Speed mod, but I still ended up with $100,000 for the plane.

 

i think it’s more a supply & demand thing in addition to age, time and condition.  There’s a lot of J Models out there, that depresses the price.  Not a lot of Encores available nor manufactured, people end up paying a premium for those.  Lots of Ovations and Bravos out there, those birds have suppressed pricing as a result.

[igorbly]

On 2/7/2020 at 3:06 PM, kortopates said:

Only because some "overhauls" only really qualified as repairs since they didn't include everything required for a major overhaul by the manufacturer so they don't legally reset the TSMOH clock, so a proper log review should be able to discern that. 

Hello,

We are looking at purchasing an E model whose last engine repair (for a camshaft replacement and new pistons) says "crankshaft cleaned and inspected only...crankcase cleaned and inspected." Although the log entry does say reference was made to the Lycoming Overhaul Manual, we had concluded that this repair did not constitute a major overhaul because no disassembly of the crankcase and testing to tolerances was indicated. Is our interpretation correct, or is all that implied by "inspected," and this was a major overhaul?

Thanks.

[kortopates]

42 minutes ago, igorbly said:

Hello,

We are looking at purchasing an E model whose last engine repair (for a camshaft replacement and new pistons) says "crankshaft cleaned and inspected only...crankcase cleaned and inspected." Although the log entry does say reference was made to the Lycoming Overhaul Manual, we had concluded that this repair did not constitute a major overhaul because no disassembly of the crankcase and testing to tolerances was indicated. Is our interpretation correct, or is all that implied by "inspected," and this was a major overhaul?

Thanks.

Inspected does mean that it was disassembled and measured to be within service limits - this always required before it can be reassembled as a repair. But that doesn't mean it was overhauled. To qualify for overhaul, one has to follow the Lycomings guidance on replacing (or overhauling in case of accessories) everything they have specified. Lyc SB 240 covers what the engine needs https://www.lycoming.com/sites/default/files/Mandatory Parts Replacement at Overhaul and During Repair or Maintenance.pdf But there are additional requirements on accessories, mags etc not listed there. But yes, you're likely looking at repair or what is commonly referred to as a top overhaul, rather than an overhaul. A top overhaul is repair as far as engine time is concerned.

A quality overhaul is done to new service limits rather than the minimum which is to Lyc specified service limits. This would allow a crank to be at the service limit and reinstalled but a OH to new limits would turn the crank and then install new oversize bearings to bring it up to new limits. 

[tigers2007]

So it sounds like they just IRAN’d the motor? How much are they saving by not installing a new cam, grinding the crank, case, and installing new bearings?

[kortopates]

45 minutes ago, tigers2007 said:

So it sounds like they just IRAN’d the motor? How much are they saving by not installing a new cam, grinding the crank, case, and installing new bearings?

I assume you meant new Crank, since Cams are cheap. The problem with cranks is that they can only be turned a few times and then you have to buy a new one for several thousand - I am not even going to guess how much exactly as they are expensive. But you can check Spruce's prices for crankshaft here and see how expensive they can be : https://www.aircraftspruce.com/catalog/eppages/lycoming07-14058-96.php

You also have the option of finding a used or reconditioned salvage crankcase. They exist but finding the one you need when you need it can be a challenge. But these are pretty popular/common engines.

Edited March 23, 2020 by kortopates

[INA201]

On 2/7/2020 at 1:47 PM, squeaky.stow said:

What are the opinions on Mooneyspace about the value of a VREF valuation?  If you were considering buying or selling, would you pay for one? Do they accurately reflect market values?

I know that Jimmy Garrison was planning to do his own version but I have not seen anything on that topic lately.

 

You won't get an accurate evaluation right now until the economy stabilizes.  There will be a fire sale or two for sure in the coming months unfortunately.

[PT20J]

6 hours ago, igorbly said:

Hello,

We are looking at purchasing an E model whose last engine repair (for a camshaft replacement and new pistons) says "crankshaft cleaned and inspected only...crankcase cleaned and inspected." Although the log entry does say reference was made to the Lycoming Overhaul Manual, we had concluded that this repair did not constitute a major overhaul because no disassembly of the crankcase and testing to tolerances was indicated. Is our interpretation correct, or is all that implied by "inspected," and this was a major overhaul?

Thanks.

Overhaul has a specific meaning (see below). If it was overhauled, the logbook entry should so state. The reference to the overhaul manual is just a reference to the approved data used to inspect, repair and reassemble the engine. It’s a repair, not an overhaul. Wonder why the pistons were replaced?

43.2   Records of overhaul and rebuilding.

(a) No person may describe in any required maintenance entry or form an aircraft, airframe, aircraft engine, propeller, appliance, or component part as being overhauled unless—

(1) Using methods, techniques, and practices acceptable to the Administrator, it has been disassembled, cleaned, inspected, repaired as necessary, and reassembled; and

(2) It has been tested in accordance with approved standards and technical data, or in accordance with current standards and technical data acceptable to the Administrator, which have been developed and documented by the holder of the type certificate, supplemental type certificate, or a material, part, process, or appliance approval under part 21 of this chapter.

https://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/Advisory_Circular/AC_43-11_CHG-1.pdf

Skip

[Browncbr1]

12 hours ago, INA201 said:

You won't get an accurate evaluation right now until the economy stabilizes.  There will be a fire sale or two for sure in the coming months unfortunately.

Will probably start to see some hangar jostling before they go on market.  Keep an eye out for local Mooneys that appear all of a sudden on ramp tie downs.

[Davidv]

VREF works well if you're trying to get financing since VREF is usually high in my opinion and will make your loan to value come out much better.