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Mooney factory closed again


Oscar Avalle

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6 hours ago, 1980Mooney said:

"Will be" game over?.....The GA high performance single market has spoken.  Mooney is building and selling no planes. No sales means no cash flow.  No cash flow means no employees.  Piper discontinued the Saratoga 10 years ago.  Columbia and successor TTX has failed.  The Beechcraft piston line is on life support selling 5 Bonanza's in the first 9 months of 2019.  It is just a matter of time before the Textron accountants kill it.

In the mean time there seem to be endless arguments here about CAPS belittling it as if it is only of value to female spouses.  These arguments sound like those 120 years ago about the value of lifeboats on passenger liners....take up too much space, too heavy, cost too much to maintain, of no use or value to a skilled and capable captain/pilot.. of course they are of no value until you need them.  Then they are invaluable.  A plane owner based here at Sugar Land and his entire family would still be alive today if they had been flying a Cirrus in Canada during the Christmas holiday instead of a Piper.  I am sure everyone can think of someone in their local aviation community who would be alive today if their plane had CAPS/BRS.

And previous posts ridicule single lever controls on Cirrus as well as composite construction.  But think about it - single lever controls puts them one step closer to integrated automation which brings Autoland Systems closer to commercial reality.  And the composite planes that I see at my A&P sure seem to look a lot better than their aluminum cousins.

Lastly the problem with sneering at fixed gear in Cirrus is that you are looking at  where they have been instead of looking at where they are going.  Does anyone really think that Cirrus has been sitting on their hands doing nothing?  The Cirrus Vision SF50 has been delivered so the engineering resources and talent likely is working on SR22 improvement.  I am sure they are mindful of the Diamond D50 threat and I would bet they are working on retractable gear.  Likewise Diamond has to think hard about how the D50  will ever take meaningful share from Cirrus if the D50 lacks BRS.

Cirrus and Diamond seem to be vying for the trifecta - speed, useful load and total safety solution.  Cirrus has the greatest resource and cashflow to win the game.  And of the others Piper seems only interested in milking low end trainers and high end turboprop.  Textron has the cash but seems only interested in business jets.  And Mooney is shut down.

You make some great points about the state of current manufacturers.  However the tragic loss of the Texas family near Kingston Ontario has nothing to having or not having a BRS or the airframe type.  It has everything to do with VFR flight into IMC weather conditions.

Clarence

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4 hours ago, M20Doc said:

You make some great points about the state of current manufacturers.  However the tragic loss of the Texas family near Kingston Ontario has nothing to having or not having a BRS or the airframe type.  It has everything to do with VFR flight into IMC weather conditions.

Clarence

you know what is crazy about this... inadvertent flight into IMC kills a LOT of pilots, and the real kicker is that MOST of them are IFR rated...  Crazy

Climb Confess Communicate!

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21 hours ago, Austintatious said:

you know what is crazy about this... inadvertent flight into IMC kills a LOT of pilots, and the real kicker is that MOST of them are IFR rated...  Crazy

Climb Confess Communicate!

I admit I did just that about 12 years ago when freshly instrument rated.  Here is my official mea-culpa of something done I did about 12 years ago - but thankfully I was wise enough to admit I had done something dum and did the correct thing to get out of trouble.

I departed with 2500 ft ceilings into conditions that were more mirky than I realized.  I was freshly IFR minted and still thought of filing as something one does in extreme situations so out of habit I did not file.  As I proceeded the conditions were gradually lowering - not all at once - but gradually. And terrain was rising - gradually - and being familiar with the terrain I was aware there were tons of wind turbines a head.  So by the time I got pushed down to 1500 ft I figured this was for the birds - I was too low at that point to communicate with ATC (rural living - radio contact is not available down low) so I figured screw it I'm climbing - this is serious.  SO I began a take off power immediate climb to altitude straight into the clouds and then started trying to contact ATC to announce my intentions and situation.  Around 4000 ft I was finally in touch with ATC and at the same time then I was on top.  SO shame on me I didn't request an emergency IFR (but I would have if I were still in the clouds as that was my intention), but I requested VFR flight following.  I probably should have requested a pop up IFR which is what I would have done if I were that dumb today but again I remember being sort of intimidated by the IFR system still at that point.  I had a long sit down think with myself after that, and now I mostly file IFR if either going long distances or if there is even a hint of maybe I might want or need it.  I also could have done the good old 180 turn but I didn't.  It seemed in the moment safer to climb.  I should have filed a NASA report but I didn't.  All several things I would have done differently today, but anyway I did one thing right, I didn't continue any further into lowering clouds and rising terrain.

Edited by aviatoreb
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I went VFR into IMC once due to smoke. There were fires around and it was really hazy but non-towered field I left from was reporting VFR. Weather was VFR enroute. Took off and at about 1000’ solid IMC from smoke. Looked at the G500 and saw where the terrain was, made a quick right turn toward the ocean and climbed out on top. It was scary, but much less scary with terrain and synthetic vision than it would have been with steam gauges.

Now I always fly the ODP, even when VFR. Seems like good practice and if I inadvertently get into something down low it buys me time and I’m already in the mindset where I’m aware of the terrain and how to avoid it. Never thought it would happen to me since I file IFR about 90% of the time I fly...

My suspicion is that a lot of people are flying IMC without filing IFR and (falsely) relying on their fancy equipment to keep them safe. I was flying through LA a few weeks ago and heard the controller call out VFR traffic to a Pilatus several times and was growing frustrated that he didn’t have him in sight. The Pilatus pilot replied “I don’t have the traffic in sight and I’m not going to because the position you reported is inside a cloud.”

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14 hours ago, Austintatious said:

you know what is crazy about this... inadvertent flight into IMC kills a LOT of pilots, and the real kicker is that MOST of them are IFR rated...  Crazy

Climb Confess Communicate!

NASA says 30% of VFR into IMC fatalities are instrument rated pilots. Why do you say "MOST" are IFR rated?

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One of the goofy things that happens to an IFR pilot transitioning into IMC.... occurs briefly after lift-off...

When the plane isn’t set into a stable, clean, climb condition... prior to entry into IMC..

All the changes of configuration, trim and speed, something gets missed.... while the ground is only seconds away...

 

So...it probably helps to understand who is collecting the stats, and what is really happening to the IFR pilots...

There are always going to be pilot mistakes... having IFR skills allows you to have more skilled accidents...


Basically, Don’t repeat somebody else’s accident... VFR or IFR... :)  VMC or IMC... or in transition...

The Kobe Bryant accident may be an example of a skilled IFR pilot flying VFR rules, and some how meeting some level of IMC... followed by a crash...

PP thoughts only, not a CFI...

Best regards,

-a-

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19 hours ago, Austintatious said:

ohh, My apologies, I must have remembered wrong. 

Still 30% is still baffling.

It's a mindset problem. Filing IFR on every flight keeps you familiar with the system and you expect to encounter IMC weather - it's not a surprise. Even if you later cancel in the air and finish VFR, you're still using the system every time. One of the reminders I really appreciated in the training I recently got from Gary Reeves was that professional pilots expect to go missed approach and they have it all set up every time to do that. I got my IFR rating in 1995 and flew every flight IFR for years. I was out of flying a few years and in just those few years a lot of things had changed - WAAS approaches for one. The additional training I've been getting has been helpful in getting my IFR mindset back where it was 15-20 years ago. The capability I have on my panel today vs. mid 90's is amazing, but it's usually the pilot that's the weak link, not the equipment.

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47 minutes ago, LANCECASPER said:

It's a mindset problem. Filing IFR on every flight keeps you familiar with the system and you expect to encounter IMC weather - it's not a surprise. Even if you later cancel in the air and finish VFR, you're still using the system every time. One of the reminders I really appreciated in the training I recently got from Gary Reeves was that professional pilots expect to go missed approach and they have it all set up every time to do that. I got my IFR rating in 1995 and flew every flight IFR for years. I was out of flying a few years and in just those few years a lot of things had changed - WAAS approaches for one. The additional training I've been getting has been helpful in getting my IFR mindset back where it was 15-20 years ago. The capability I have on my panel today vs. mid 90's is amazing, but it's usually the pilot that's the weak link, not the equipment.

I was advised shortly after I earned my IFR ticket about 12 years ago, the same advice regarding filing IFR on all (I take that to mean many/most) flights for sake of staying current in the system.  But also I realize this practice also has some other major benefits.

-early in my IFR days I sort of looked at filing IFR as for special occasions when you venture into nasty stuff (and still I have learned to avoid venturing into really nasty stuff with my little airplane).  That is the wrong way to look at it - if we are saving it for those special occasions, then we are not using it in the intermediate days - and flying in funny ways to stay VFR when the safer way is to just go IFR and fly the system.  E.g. instead of bumping along and zig zagging down low trying to stay VFR below a ceiling and clear of terrain, how much easier and safer is it often just to fly over the tops in straight lines in the sunshine?  In any case, most important you don't reach a point where you are asking is this bad enough to ask for an IFR pop up or should I proceed VFR?

-there's lots of airspaces along my usual routes, esp toward DC - easier just to be IFR.

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Filing IFR can be a burden at times at Mooney altitudes, especially in south Florida where you talk to act almost non stop. 
makes it impossible to have a conversation with someone flying with you. 
however, the benefits come when you least expect it, and can be overwhelmingly good. 
I filed ifr and flew to west palm one day to pick up a friend, bluebird day without a cloud in the sky, no ceilings in the forecast and clear metars at destination and departure. 
didn’t even shut the engine down to stop, they hopped in and off we went.
15 min later, in full imc, I lost ahrs, autopilot, traffic, horizon, and hsi. 
Not fun flying compass only during turbulence, backup horizon in about the worst possible location on the entire panel, and no slip...
there was a LOT of traffic all around prior to this and I had not filed ifr, expecting great conditions, which by the way, they were departing airport and at my destination.  
picking up an ifr, in the air,  under partial panel imc is something I hope to never do again. 
I file 99% of the time. 
just personal preference, because you just never really know. 

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6 hours ago, Austintatious said:

To be fair, it is not ALWAYS easier to go IFR.  There are all sorts of reasons VFR is easier at times.  That being said, if weather is going to be a factor, it is certainly less stressful.

Much easier to file IFR than it used to be - using Foreflight or Garmin Pilot takes all of the work out of a briefing and filing.

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15 hours ago, LANCECASPER said:

It's a mindset problem. Filing IFR on every flight keeps you familiar with the system and you expect to encounter IMC weather - it's not a surprise. Even if you later cancel in the air and finish VFR, you're still using the system every time. One of the reminders I really appreciated in the training I recently got from Gary Reeves was that professional pilots expect to go missed approach and they have it all set up every time to do that. I got my IFR rating in 1995 and flew every flight IFR for years. I was out of flying a few years and in just those few years a lot of things had changed - WAAS approaches for one. The additional training I've been getting has been helpful in getting my IFR mindset back where it was 15-20 years ago. The capability I have on my panel today vs. mid 90's is amazing, but it's usually the pilot that's the weak link, not the equipment.

True. I don't know much about part 135. Maybe someone can shed some light on the FAA certification for IFR part 135 that Island Express Helicopters apparently didn't have and why they didn't have it. The articles I've seen cite the "trouble and expense of winning certification for instrument flight". Is it an FAA certification beyond just having IFR certified aircraft and Instrument rated pilots to fly passengers IFR? Or is it insurance? Maybe scud running as an accepted practice with celebrities in a multi-million dollar helicopter needs a re-think. Maybe actual IFR on a regular basis should be encouraged, not discouraged. Am I missing something?

 

Sorry about the thread creep... 

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The companies ops specs for an IFR program on their S76 would require 6mo recurrent training and additional maintenance requirements for the aircraft. The lack of the ops spec prevented them from being able to file IFR. Best guess to ad ops IFR specs would cost 100k a year more to the operator. 
Weather in LA is pretty good...most of the time.

Still really sad,

-Matt

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I’ve gotten into IIMC (or rather have been unable to maintain VFR) a few times - all when rated and current.  First was when I filed going from BOS to PIT. Didn’t want a tour of the northern suburbs so got a class B transit and went VFR.  Got into an area of little snow squalls just under the EWR class B arrivals stream and visibility dropped to 3SM or so.  Got a pop up IFR from NY approach once clear of the arrivals and on my merry way.  Let the controller know in advance what was going on, what I wanted and when (I’m not going to be able to maintain VFR in xx miles) and they were accommodating.  If I can get a pop up under the EWR arrival stream I’m not sure why pilots are so hesitant to call up and ask for a hand when needed. 

Another time when got into smoke.  Just gradual decline in visibility over the course of several miles until there wasn’t a horizon anymore.  Ended up not filing but reporting a pirep cause we were out of it just as fast. 

Another I recall was a night flight cross country into Boston - flying along no clouds great forecast and all of a sudden I’m in a layer.  I recall another pop up need with layer pushing down and  filing over delmar peninsula.  

The common theme for all these flights were that the conditions were worse than forecast or unforecast.  Plus minus night flight.  All long cross country flights across weather systems or regions.  It’s a sneaky siren song and sometimes surprising.  Without an instrument rating you wouldn’t necessarily expose yourself to conditions that could have a chance of IMC (but we see VFR pilots do that anyway).  I’d probably be d e d in each of those scenarios if I didn’t have instrument proficiency.  

I think the threshold for level of concern for instrument rated pilots is naturally lower- but it’s still staggering that 30% figure. 

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13 minutes ago, Nick Pilotte said:

So it’s safe to say that an option 3 updated G1000 Ovation would be a bad buy now? 

Why would you think that?  If you can find an owner who must sell, you could probably get a lot of airplane for not a lot of money.  I suspect, but do not know, that the used, late-model Mooney market is not great for sellers at the moment.

-dan

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@exM20K I am familiar with your home airport and have been eying the property around there. You have a gorgeous plane and I meant no offense by my statement. I apologize if I did offend you or anyone.  

I should clarify.  I see them for sale and I truly am interested in them but come from an industry where electronic and instrumentation integration is common practice and it leads to expected obsolescence. So if the G1000 platform requires manufacturer support for updates (and there are always updates in aviation equipment) it seems that it could end up like early Citations or Lears where it could far exceed the value of the plane to adapt to new technology or requirements.  Maybe that’s my mind confusing things.  I guess we don’t require cars or trucks that are 20 years old to be retrofit with new engines or computers that support lower emissions or better/simpler operation of autonomy.  That could just be the way aviation is moving with integrated avionics.  So if ADSB is out now, what’s the next thing that will be required in 10-15 years?  Will it render an airframe with integrated electronics and no factory support to scrap? Export to another country that doesn’t require such enhancements? 
 

it just reminds me of defunct automotive companies like Fisker, Saab, even Saturn and Pontiac.   If the government required equipment changes on all cars like this, it would leave a lot of owners of orphaned vehicles stranded. 

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@Nick Pilotte for sure no offense taken by me. I've dealt with this G1000 Garmin vs OEM stuff for years with Diamond, and I don't think it is a show stopper.  Only in one case (a handful of IAP's were suppressed) has an update been required, and that instance has been fixed.  The G1000/GFC700 is an excellent, reliable combination, and while it may not be upgraded to include new functionality, it is very capable as-is, and I am not concerned about support/upgrades.

Naper Aero is a very nice place to live - PM me if you'd like a tour sometime.

-dan 

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The next big sales “feature” may be autoland.   The Piper M600 is available with that now, the Cirrus jet soon will have the “magic” button.  Others to follow.  

Sooner or later one of those planes will land and come to a stop on the runway with an incapacitated or dead pilot in the seat.   

I suspect higher-end Cirrus piston planes will be offered with that option soon.   I think emergency autoland will further enable Cirrus to dominate the piston market.  

 

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