Factory Closed Down?

[MooneyMitch]

38 minutes ago, Skates97 said:

When we had the fly-in a couple years ago in Paso Robles Richard Simile flew a brand new Acclaim Ultra from Phoenix. Those of you that have met Richard know he is very knowledgeable, very personable, and loves Mooney's. He talked up all the great points of the new Ultra, what sets it apart from the pack, let anyone that wanted to climb in and sit in it, and answered any questions anyone had. His excitement for the plane was contagious, and you could tell he was loving what he was doing. If they could have cloned him and sent him out to the airshows with new Acclaims, I think you would have seen a lot more interest and sales. It might not have made enough of a difference, but I would like to have seen it.

Richard, at thatvpoint I believe, still worked for Premier.  Richard did a great job promoting Mooney over the years, including coming to, and working the Mooney displays at Osh and Sun&Fun.

He did obviously have a dog in the fight.  Regardless, yes, a most terrific charismatic asset for Mooney aircraft.

[cliffy]

Think back to how Cirrus started-  They had an "area" salesman that bought an airplane and then flew it around all over making sales calls to individuals, air shows , FBOs on weekends, etc just to show it off.  If I hadn't have had such a good job at the time I would have done it. They got the word out They got the publicity even by word of mouth just by showing up and saying, "look what I have brought to the show".   They generated excitement. 

By contrast the last OSH show I went to Mooney was there but  no one in the tent showed any interest in anyone walking in and looking. I went back 3 times with the same result. You had to go find someone to even ask a question. Many factory people seemed to leave early to go back to Kerrville. I've done lots of trade shows and you have to greet EVERYONE that walks by with enthusiasm and get them to look even if they look like they don't have 2 nickles between them.

"If you build it they will come" maybe don't work in this arena!   Ya think?

As to a new glass airplane-  You'd be out way over 100 million to get it certified today. I'll bet $20 on it. But the good part is Mooney has a CAD file of the outer surface of the airplane as a smooth continuous surface, How do you think they got the composite shell  they used for the 2 door model?  I saw the computer generated picture. With the outside shell in CAD doing the internals is a cinch so to speak.

I don't think the pay off by going glass is in the manufacturing, maybe in sales perception, modern, cool factor, as opposed to the way we did it in 1935.    Again it all comes down to perception by the buying public. .

Edited June 19, 2020 by cliffy

[aviatoreb]

2 hours ago, Danb said:

Erik I thought the economy was a wreck also but not all, I just left a meeting with a real estate client of mine he told me they not just his company but all of a Delaware has no inventory to sell, the shells in the poorest part of the city went for say 10-15 grand, now you can’t find any under 40,000 sell within a couple days, going up the chain his homes in the 250,000 range are selling at a premium within days, upward to a few homes for sale in N Delaware and S Chester County he has three that he was hoping to sell for $450,000 all three within a week have been offered up to $500,000, now interest rates for high credit families approximate 2.7%. There are around 2500 homes in inventory in new castle De currently around 700-800 homes available. So the economic situation is selective. 
I also have a handful who can’t find employees to hire, these are restaurants, small retailers and construction. There making more staying home example say 300 week unemployment plus 600 unemployment stimulus times mom and dad. That’s $1800 per week or $7700 per month times 12 months that approximates $80-90,000 per family, no day care just live off us. They then cry the economy sucks. Your a real smart guy Erik but I’m seeing differing things in Delaware. My business clients are going out of business due to inability to find employees.

Something is happening I don’t know what, big companies like Amazon lots government underhanded deals going on I really don’t know what, Everyone one of these mom and pop stores sales now go to the internet sales. My three day cares are near bankrupt as are my contractors the big box stores are taking there work.

The situation is changing I’m not sure the economy is bad or the economy has shifted towards the big guy.

The next couple of years will be telling, whatever happens and whatever party is in control all the blame will be on the losing side. I had it so good as a kid, teenager, younger dude regardless of Vietnam and through my middle years and now a senior all has been good.

Our kids, for the younger folks, grandkids etc, what a mess we’ve left them. Unbelievable happy I grew up in the era I did.

Thanks for those remarks Dan.  That is surprising and interesting.  I am not directly connected to the economy in the way you are, with clients giving you feedback as to what they are seeing in their businesses.  I am just repeating the story of general worry given that there are so many unemployed.  I have no answers on that one - it was a throw away remark relative to what I was thinking in terms of Mooney's prospects.  I do see my oldest of 3 sons who graduated with his grad degree from Duke, just weeks ago, who at the beginning of the spring semester he had all sorts of good spirits of getting snatched up, and now his industry seems to be in the pits and he is worried.  Fingers crossed.

What would Anthony say at this juncture - oh yeah.  Just the thoughts of a PP not an economist.

[aviatoreb]

48 minutes ago, cliffy said:

Think back to how Cirrus started-  They had an "area" salesman that bought an airplane and then flew it around all over making sales calls to individuals, air shows , FBOs on weekends, etc just to show it off.  If I hadn't have had such a good job at the time I would have done it. They got the word out They got the publicity even by word of mouth just by showing up and saying, "look what I have brought to the show".   They generated excitement. 

By contrast the last OSH show I went to Mooney was there but  no one in the tent showed any interest in anyone walking in and looking. I went back 3 times with the same result. You had to go find someone to even ask a question. Many factory people seemed to leave early to go back to Kerrville. I've done lots of trade shows and you have to greet EVERYONE that walks by with enthusiasm and get them to look even if they look like they don't have 2 nickles between them.

"If you build it they will come" maybe don't work in this arena!   Ya think?

As to a new glass airplane-  You'd be out way over 100 million to get it certified today. I'll bet $20 on it. But the good part is Mooney has a CAD file of the outer surface of the airplane as a smooth continuous surface, How do you think they got the composite shell  they used for the 2 door model?  I saw the computer generated picture. With the outside shell in CAD doing the internals is a cinch so to speak.

I don't think the pay off by going glass is in the manufacturing, maybe in sales perception, modern, cool factor, as opposed to the way we did it in 1935.    Again it all comes down to perception by the buying public. .

I was really really surprised a few years ago at Oshkosh when the sales guys at the Mooney tent seemed annoyed I was there and distracting them from what they really wanted to do.  I definitely did not feel welcome.

[N201MKTurbo]

39 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

I was really really surprised a few years ago at Oshkosh when the sales guys at the Mooney tent seemed annoyed I was there and distracting them from what they really wanted to do.  I definitely did not feel welcome.

Yes, back in the 90s I was at the Reno races and Mooney had a Bravo there. I told the sales guy that I flew my Mooney in for the races. He pretty much told me to go away and don’t touch the plane.

[Danb]

Erik I wonder how much the unemployment rate is attributable to the 600 per week stimulus for sitting home, it shows how dumb our economists are when they instituted the $600 per week stimulus you’d think they’d have the brains to limit to 8-12 weeks or so. I’d like to think at least one of those brainiacs would have whispered in Trumps ear how long you think the stim should last. Relating to the PPP stimulus package, I did say 30-40 applications for the PPP I’d also guess say half of them didn’t need it, the general remarks were if there throwing free money to me I’ll take it, I had one get about $300 G’s that didn’t need it and we’ll easily be able to get it relived due to how easy it is to qualify, support and prove based on there guidelines they don’t have to pay any back. 
They just threw trillions at an open fire with no clue what they were doing. More debt for our kids to worry about I guess. 

[chinoguym20]

All good points regarding the poor attitude of the Mooney marketing.  However, what’s the point of marketing an old design, manufactured using old processes that costs more to manufacture than you can sell it for and still make a profit to keep the lights on?  The factory closed due to that, not marketing.  

[the_elkhartian]

Last year at OSH, I took a day to just really observe where the "excitement" was...I walked around to all of the displays. Everything had it's own vibe...

STOL/Ultralight area was like a 3 ring circus....so much energy! I wanted (want) a Kitfox or a Just SuperSTOL to go along with my Trent Palmer youtube obsession. I think there is a lot of growth in this area. This is where a lot of the "outdoorsy kids" were hanging out. The surfer/back country camping crowd, if you will.

The Daher/SOCATA tent/compound is the tophat and monocle crowd. I got the vibe that I wasn't rich enough to walk through their immaculately landscaped gate. And they were okay with that. I feel like a lot of TBM shoppers are deciding between that or a Phenom 300.

The Cirrus tent is the popular kids at the lunch room. Everybody wanted to be at the Cirrus tent, everybody wanted to get invited to the Cirrus party. You don't have to own a Cirrus to buy a Cirrus polo shirt, and matching hat and water bottle! Show us the keys to your Cirrus and you get to come to the private Beyonce concert we're having tonight! Everybody wants to be a Cirrus owner. And if you don't like Cirrrus it's because you aren't cool enough to sit at their table in the lunchroom (from their perspective, at least.)

And then there was the Mooney tent. Ho hum. Sleepy side of the field over there, next to the engine overhauler and the latest eastern european light sport. On exhibit? 1.4 airplanes (if you count that cockpit demonstrator as 0.4 of an airplane). I poked around the sad, forlorn looking salespeople....baking in the sun and wishing they had a tent...private lounge...or even a glass of water like the "plastic airplane" people (or "the dark side" as I actually heard one of Premier's salespeople refer to brand C--specifically referencing a Mooney salesman who had left to sell Cirrus).

I overheard more than one conversation with Mooney reps that went like this.

Rep: "Hi how are you!"

Prospect: "Good...you know this Acclaim Ultra is really nice...but you know I get most of the same performance out of my 199X Ovation II. And I didn't have to spend $800k for it...."

Rep: "Yeah...an Ovation is a great airplane." <camera zooms to single tear running down the Mooney reps cheek>

--just observations....we all agree a Mooney is a fine airplane. There are just few people outside of our community excited about them....seemingly to include the people tasked with selling them.

[aviatoreb]

Well it’s clear their sales force was crummy.

But they did have something fantastic to sell.  THE fastest piston you could buy.  There’s no excuse for just showing up.  You need to show up and sell what’s awesome about your product.

Oh in the cool tents - when I was there w my then 17 year old son dreaming to go to university and study aero - we spent like 2 hrs in the GE turbine “tent” which for them was an air conditioned trailer show room thing with wood floors a big glass store front and several cutaway turbine engines that my son loved.  One of the sales guys talked to my son for like 2 hrs non stop about engines.  It was clearly just a stem education thing but that sales guy had infinite patience.  This was beyond sales - the sales guy clearly thought turbine engines were cool too and marveled at the kid who soaked up what he said like a sponge / He eventually was encouraging my son to look into internships w ge - this from a sales guy in the Uber high end chic “tent.” And my son did major in aero now just graduated and off to a PhD in aero in the fall / still things turbine engines are cool and who knows I bet he’s running lead engineer at ge turbine in 20 years.

This was the same trip where we show up at the Mooney tent wearing a Mooney hat and they are too bored to talk.

there is one reason mooneys sold and it’s a fact that they are fantastic airplanes.  But you need to be Already in the know to know that.

[Blue on Top]

Okay, so I'll throw my 2 cents in …  I was there.  In this case, I would say that even hindsight is not 20/20.  I believe that nobody inside or outside of Mooney knows the "whole picture" or "the rest of the story".  Here's my thoughts, my story and I am sticking to it.

The M20 is a good airplane, but it looks old … and I think it is purely shape.  On several occasions,  we would put the M10 and M20 beside each other and ask a potential customer which airplane was $500K and which was $800K?  100% of the time, the M10 was the $800K airplane.  When we let them know the M20 carried 4 at 242 knots and the M10 carried 2/3 at 150 knots, the opinions were unchanged.

The customer doesn't buy an airplane based on its construction material.  Many people believe that the newer Citations (Citation CJ3 and on) are composite … they are not.  The exception to this is trainers.  Trainers must be aluminum due to very rough operating conditions and maintenance.  (I've said this many, many times before) Aluminum airplanes are much lighter than composites ones (you can even ask Cirrus (engineers … they've had a weight reduction program going on for a decade+ ).

As for the M10, the initial concept was (and still is) fantastic!   After a rocky start, we designed, built and flew the POC (proof of concept) airplane in 14 months.  It now has ~170 hours on it and is in Kerrville.  Garmin suite, diesel engine and 100% carbon airplane didn't come anywhere close to the expected price point, weight or performance.   We learned a lot on the POC aircraft.

Do I believe that a ~$450K, 2/3-place traveling/training, all aluminum, non-diesel, nice but simple IFR/VFR panel and a 150-160 knot airplane sell?  Heck yes!  I see that every day on Facebook postings from people like all y'all.  Simplicity and cost of manufacturing have to be ENGINEERED into the design from day one.

Again, just my 2 cents.  

[cliffy]

The Mooney is fast

The Cirrus LOOKS fast

Again, perception is everything

What sells anything?     Perception,     not reality. 

Sell the sizzle!

BTW  I thought the promotion airplane Mooney put out in their ads with the red, white and black paint job just plain sucked.

It did nothing to enhance the sizzle,  in fact it detracted from it. Who ever thought of that turkey?  JMO

 

[jetdriven]

Just saying that sitting in the Cirrus while cold air and Boston “more than a feeling” sells airplanes. 

[MooneyMitch]

Ron.

There was such a broad spectrum of terrifically experienced and talented folks in Chino, (yourself included), what are your thoughts please regarding why the M10 failed in areas you’ve described?

Apples and oranges here obviously.......however, I’ll compare an enormously gigantic engineering project created from the ground up, to its first successful mission.....the Space Shuttle Columbia launch!  

I spent many years at our west coast rocket launching site as a ground communications engineer. During those years, I learned the incredible amount of knowledge, talent, experience, leadership, bureaucracy, etc., spread out over an incredibly broad spectrum of systems required to put an unmanned rocket into space, let alone something as incredible as the Space Shuttle!

One morning I watched on a TV monitor in one of our communications control rooms, the first Space Shuttle Columbia lift off!! I was completely amazed how something so complicated, created by so much and by so many (by the lowest bidders in many cases... lol), was able to have success with the first crack out of the gate.

Granted, tons of things were learned (and not learned.... Challenger and Columbia eventually) and changed for the better from that first mission, and beyond.

My point is, with all the engineering talent for the Shuttle, it was designed and produced to be a success in its first mission.

With no disrespect to anyone, I’ve wondered all along, why didn’t those same first mission success design engineering concepts apply to the M10 project?.........designed to be an overall success right out of the gate! 

Thank you.

[cliffy]

On 6/19/2020 at 6:18 AM, aviatoreb said:

So from the ground up, design a plastic plane for a quick and easy build that is shaped exactly like the acclaim.  It would be smoother, and so a tad bit faster even.  And if designed in cad, and with the right lay ups and materials it might be lighter, to allow for...yes...a parachute...and als more useful load.  And ... diesel.  A big  and powerful diesel that would push this little place to 250TAS on 15gph.  How much does it cost to certify a new airplane?  50M?  Well that is what it costs.  Otherwise maybe don't bother.  Better to spend 50M on a real shot at the front of the pack than another 20M at 3 years of dragging out a painful slide.

 

I think I agree with B on T  in that plastic may not be the best way to go but you can't deny that if one showed up with a backward tail and cool looking sleek curved winglets on the wingtips it would generate a lot of talk. Maybe bring back an iteration of the stinger tail (there's one at my airport today), maybe longer slopped windshield, and a paint job that doesn't look like a 3 year old drew it.  WOW cowl inlets for the full circle look up front. maybe a molded instrument panel instead of the 1930 flat plate look. Mold a new interior panel system and seat upholstery that is simple and cheaper to make but draws eyes to the inside. The Bugatti look was nice but expensive and not everyone likes the Bugatti look.  Put in electronics that later owners  can change out if they desire, as new stuff becomes available (and it will). Sell the fact that the owner can always stay up with the trends and advancements and not locked to the factory supplied design and that Mooney will be looking at those advancements and keeping in touch with the new owner on that. Make it so the factory could offer a factory install slide in place redo on all the electronics. Don't make the airplane dependent on one set of electronics. Keep the sales in the family so to speak. Have a factory mod center that new buyers could bring their planes in and get the latest and greatest panel installed (or ala carte parts if desired) after a few years.  Sell the strength of the wing or re engineer more simplicity into it but make it as strong. Never ever make it weaker.   Keep the customer close for follow on sales. Just random thoughts

[aviatoreb]

17 minutes ago, cliffy said:

I think I agree with B on T  in that plastic may not be the best way to go...

OK - I agree with everyone. Forget plastic.  We need something all new.

How about Titanium!  I have 3 Titanium bicycles and a Titanium watch.  why not Titanium?!  I know it is expensive but the mooney frame is a lot like a bicycle frame in terms of build.  Build those round tube bits out of Titanium - I know the welding is a real pain with Titanium but it would be lighter and stronger.  Then frame the wings with spars and stringers out of cnc titanium parts - that would be more expensive than the fuselage welded tubes, but again very very strong and very light.  Then you need to skin it - ok now skip the usual millions (ok lots) of rivets but now maybe pre-shaped fab carbon skins epoxy-glued into place.  Would that build up faster?  Sounds lighter and stronger.  Plus never corrodes - Ti does not corrode.

E

[cliffy]

54 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

OK - I agree with everyone. Forget plastic.  We need something all new.

How about Titanium!  I have 3 Titanium bicycles and a Titanium watch.  why not Titanium?!  I know it is expensive but the mooney frame is a lot like a bicycle frame in terms of build.  Build those round tube bits out of Titanium - I know the welding is a real pain with Titanium but it would be lighter and stronger.  Then frame the wings with spars and stringers out of cnc titanium parts - that would be more expensive than the fuselage welded tubes, but again very very strong and very light.  Then you need to skin it - ok now skip the usual millions (ok lots) of rivets but now maybe pre-shaped fab carbon skins epoxy-glued into place.  Would that build up faster?  Sounds lighter and stronger.  Plus never corrodes - Ti does not corrode.

E

I come from  a machine shop upbringing  Just asking  Have you ever worked with Ti in a machine shop setting? 

Ain't easy nor cheap

[aviatoreb]

4 minutes ago, cliffy said:

I come from  a machine shop upbringing  Just asking  Have you ever worked with Ti in a machine shop setting? 

Ain't easy nor cheap

No - I’m aware but not experienced in the least of how hard it is to work ti.  But I have a ti watch and several ti bikes so I presume it’s plausible.  Anyway it would be fab.

[Blue on Top]

12 hours ago, MooneyMitch said:

There was such a broad spectrum of terrifically experienced and talented folks in Chino, (yourself included), what are your thoughts please regarding why the M10 failed in areas you’ve described?

@MooneyMitch  Mitch:  The number of perspectives on this topic is greater than the number of people involved.  I know that I will say too much, but these are only my thoughts … but VERY restricted and with no intended disrespect to anyone.  The project was doomed even before I got there in early 2014.

An outside engineering firm(s) was(were) selected, before I was hired, to complete the M20 shell and the M10 POC.  The firm(s) was(were) selected because of a project that they had completed before that involved a few of Mooney's senior management.  BUT, in the meantime this company went through a major breakup.  Unfortunately, as a result, both companies lost the majority of their talents … although each were headed by a strong, singular talent.  Some of the Chino engineers ended up doing the M20 shell CATIA work.

As for the "first" M10 POC, the second part of the engineering firm, now very inexperienced, had signed up for an impossible schedule.  When I arrived in March, there were few parts designed, no parts made and first flight was scheduled for August.  My job was to look over the shoulder of this engineering firm to note what would be needed to be changed to certify the airplane..  Less than a week on the job, I knew that the schedule was beyond impossible … even for a small, very experienced group.  Now, I'm immediately between a rock and a hard place.  How does one tell his bosses (and friends of the engineering firm) that there is no way this engineering firm could possibly deliver on their promises?

Late one evening, Jerry pulled me into his office.  I thought it was my last day.  Instead, it was a pep talk for me.  He explained the great legacy of the M20, and I was to make the M10 the same.  Three months after the scheduled first flight, the Chino engineering team did a great job and delivered the first mockup to China … and the engineering firm walked out on us … on our night of celebration.  Fourteen months later, the Chino engineering team built a second mockup (for the US) and flew a totally new, re-designed, M10 POC for the first time.  I thought a roaring success.  To our investors, we were 18 months late.  This is but the tip of the iceberg, but more than I should say.

Do I think an all new M10 can be designed built and flown in less than a year?  Heck yes!  Kerrville can make ANYTHING in aluminum … sexy shapes and all .  Simplicity and manufacturing HAS to be designed in from day one! 

[MooneyMitch]

This, of course,  raises more questions!

Project doomed from the getgo?  Those folks did not have knowledge on plastic weights?  They did not know power to weight ratios?  I understand cost overruns ( I spent time observing govt. contracts).

Mooney upper management?  Tom, Jerry? China?  

Who drove the schedule?

 

 

[Blue on Top]

9 minutes ago, MooneyMitch said:

1. Project doomed from the get go?  Those folks did not have knowledge on plastic weights?  They did not know power to weight ratios?  I understand cost overruns ( I spent time observing govt. contracts).

2. Mooney upper management?  

3. Who drove the schedule?

1. Yes, correct … especially for required FAA composite certification materials and processes.  Composite processes already defined by the FAA (NIAR database) need to be duplicated by an OEM to prove they can meet the minimum requirements (lots and lots of samples) of that specification.  New composite processes/materials must complete a 3X times sampling to prove strength, voids and repeatability.  A new composite material or process costs in excess of $2M. Total aircraft costs were not looked at until 3 years into the program.

2. Yes; no comment.

3. I am not sure.  I was not allow to even see the aircraft specification until late in the program.  Ironically, the Chief Engineer is the one that should be signing his/her name to that document at the inception of the program as a commitment as to what can be done.  When I was finally shown it and asked to rewrite it, another rock and hard place appeared.  Write it to meet the POC (an airplane needing redesign) or write it to what can be done from past history … showing the POC didn't meet it's performance goals.

[MooneyMitch]

Thank you.  So very unfortunate.  I appreciate your information. 

[N9201A]

Yes, they were producing a destroyer every 17 days. It took 120 days to actually build them.

We didn’t need the battlewagons, fleet carriers (and the “jeep” escort and light carriers) were what would win the war on the seas.

But there is something majestic about those old battleships, I’ve visited as many as possible, from the Texas to the Missouri.

Mike, they were named after states. So it would’ve been awkward when they got the 49th one done in year two...

I believe Liberty ships were being cranked out pretty quickly too.

[MikeOH]

12 hours ago, Hyett6420 said:

Well your avg employee is 50k fully weighted is he not?  

No idea what Mooney's fully burdened labor costs are.

What I asked was, "How many manual labor HOURS are being spent with the present methods."

Not sure how to make that inquiry any more clear???

Edited June 21, 2020 by MikeOH

[MikeOH]

12 hours ago, Hyett6420 said:

And boy were they crap, here is an example....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS_Richard_Montgomery

this one is still here causing great grief

they had a habit of breaking in rough seas across their weld lines.  

Think of how quickly the Brits would have won WWII if they didn't have American crap ships to contend with, huh?

Should have had Lucas Electric in charge of building 'em, I guess

Edited June 21, 2020 by MikeOH

[chinoguym20]

I think $50/hr fully burdened is probably close when you add up all the overhead Involved with Chino and Kerrville. To @blueontop 2nd point, Jerry was the most engaged CEO and letting him go was a big mistake. He was followed by the other guy who lasted only months before being booted and they never replaced him. They temporarily installed an investor guy who had no experience. I’m not sure who is CEO now. Nor who is paying to keep it open.  Anyone know?