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Factory Closed Down?


chinoguym20

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2 hours ago, Shadrach said:

I like and respect Don great deal but I’m pretty sure he’s not going to show up here to confirm or contradict anything that Rich has posted. We have many qualified and experienced Mooney maintenance professionals on the site that are not Don Maxwell and they freely give their time and expertise.  How and where your airplane is maintained is your business. Maxwell Aviation is an excellent choice. However, it seems like bad form to put forth a post that basically says that you don’t think a contributor knows what they’re talking about and that while you yourself are not able to correct them, you know a non-contributor that could set them straight.   A quick look at the IPC before posting would have been a good idea...

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Rev "A" was a simpler assembly with a few other shortcomings....

Wood spar.jpg

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Surviveability in this day and age?

Finances and "perception of value"

10% in flight performance either way makes no real difference.

Can you support an entire aircraft manufacturing concern on say $50 million a year in gross sales? 

A manufacturing concern with hundreds of employees, supply chains and ancillary costs?

We're talking close to  $1 MILLION per unit. 

It is a niche market that only a few can enter at that price. 

Even at half that price its still Rolls-Royce territory

Do a large number of people in that arena throw their money around without thinking about it?

Let's go to perception. 

If you could duplicate them - could you sell a hundred thousand 1965 Ford Mustangs today? For today's average car cost? 

No because the perception of value (compared to today's cars) just isn't there. 

They were noisy, didn't ride all that well, didn't have all of today's bells and whistles, MPG sucked.  Again, perception from this day and age to yesteryear. The average person in the market today wouldn't buy them. 

We're trying to sell yesteryears product to an audience that has changed over the last 50 years. As much as we like the Mooney, the world has changed - in its perception of value compared to other products available today 

Can you find ANY thrice failed company that has come back to life selling the exact product that they failed with the first time and that has become a going, long time concern? 

What is the perception of being in the niche market to purchase an "asset" worth close to a million bucks from a company that has failed 3 times or more, with the same product and  - left their last "investors' hanging out to dry on support of that product? 

Especially if right down the road there is another company producing a "modern" version of the same type of vehicle, with all the new era bells and whistles, pumping them out by the hundreds a year with a history factory support for decades? 

Where would most folks in that "niche" consumer arena look to make their "investment"?

We all like our Mooneys   I go back over 40 years with them to my first trip to the factory while helping to build the first  wing tip "imbedded" VOR antenna. But time and PERCEPTION does march on. 

If you had a million bucks of disposable income where would you think is the best place to put your money with an element of security and value going forward?  10% performance difference aside. 

I'd love to see them come back to life but? 

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Just to add another shovel full to the hole-

I know of a buyer who came half way around the world with money in hand to buy a new Mooney at OSH and the factory wouldn't even talk to him. Said they'd put him in touch with a salesman.  He went home with his money in his pocket. 

Its all in perception. 

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12 hours ago, cliffy said:

We're talking close to  $1 MILLION per unit. 

I think this is the bigger problem and why Mooney is probably unlikely to dig their way out of their current hole.

If I’m going to spend $700k to $1million on an airplane, why would I buy a “new” 1968 design when I could buy a new 2000 design made of plastic with a parachute and sexy girls hanging off the wings in big tents at glamorous parties?
 

What is missing from the market is an attainable aircraft. If a new Mooney in 1965 cost $20k, a new Mooney in 2020 should cost about $200k. The problem is it costs $800k. And there just aren’t that many people that can afford $800k airplanes. And so you get one or two players with the marketing wherewithal to draw the spend from that really shallow pool of prospects and all of the other players die away. 
 

So where are the $200k airplanes? In the Experimental and LSA category. Vans, Kitfox, Jabiru, etc....like it or not they’re the future of GA. 


 


 

 

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8 minutes ago, wingtipwalker said:

1. What is missing from the market is an attainable aircraft. If a new Mooney in 1965 cost $20k, a new Mooney in 2020 should cost about $200k. The problem is it costs $800k.

2. So where are the $200k airplanes? In the Experimental and LSA category. Vans, Kitfox, Jabiru, etc....like it or not they’re the future of GA. 

0. @wingwalker63  I am agreeing with you, but please consider apples to apples comparisons.

1. It would be great to produce M20s at 400-500K, but the airplanes are not C/D/E/F airplanes anymore (but maybe they should be).  The new airplanes are longer, have much larger engines, better interiors, glass panels, dual nav/coms, ADS-B, etc.

2. You forgot to add your year or two of build time.  Factory workers don't work for nothing.

I totally agree with you on the intent.  We need to quit making only Porsches and start designing/building Chevrolets.  Although less expensive, there is more money in the everyday vehicle. 

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So...

I have been in machine building arenas...

Selling one machine at a time....  Maybe two at a time...

A good year was 15 machines...  sales price 7-900amu...  40% raw margin...
 

Some machine parts were highly specialized... 2” thick steel,   Or a 4’ diameter steel drum chrome finished with an exact radius out to .0005”

Spare parts were in the 1-2 million...

Very economy driven... some years 2X other years 0.5X...

100 people in the company... All with specific expertise, personalities, and life stories...

Some of the machine arenas have FDA oversight, similar to FAA...

Pick your key people... don’t lose sight of them...

Mooney is a treasure... but not completely unique....
 

The latest Ovations and Acclaims are the best...

For customers that appreciate Speed, Efficiency, and Safety... There are many customers who like this..!
 

I’d be ecstatic to show people how to purchase a Mooney...  new, used, old, ancient... pre-flown, in need of service....

There are no bad Mooneys...
 

Today’s buyers... Many (like us) are going to be deeply interested In the structures, aerodynamics, rivets and sheet metal.... a handful really will dig the HP:weight discussion.... most are going to be interested in finances of flight.... how this bird really is the best fit for their situation...

 


 

Imagine a Mooney sales guy having Zoom meetings with all potential clients... that would give a new twist on the phrase Mooney Zoom!
 

I couldn’t be on MS all day...   I’d be soooo busy having Zoom Meetings....

Trade shows are the coolest... 24/7... no sleep for the weary... no potential customer gets ignored...

Its all sales driven... without sales, the whole thing comes to a giant slow down....

I’d be the only candidate going to the interview using MS crowd sourcing for back-up...

:)
 

PP thoughts only, not a plane sales guy.... yet.

Best regards,

-a-

 

 

 

 

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Simple question...

what new plane would you buy with your 800amu?

Everyone has a list of dozens of planes they wouldn't buy...

 

You are probably going to be like me....

You're buying a used (fill in the blank)...

To get the most performance out of your dollars...

I think I would be interested in exploring something with a turbine.... :)


The people I saw buying new Mooneys are using it as part of their lifestyle... work and personal....

When flying between offices states away... the new Mooney really makes sense...

800amu is a ton of dough... especially if you only use it on the weekends...

Best regards,

-a-

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What GA needs is some innovation and scale.

We’re creating a thriving aviation museum community. Producing 4.5 planes per year doesn’t replace the aging fleet. So used prices continue to climb, fewer people take up flying because it’s expensive and “dangerous” in “rickety old airplanes” and so fewer planes stay in service. I hate to be a downer but GA as an industry is in a bit of a flat spin. 

Case in point:image.thumb.jpg.63fa31a5b56f3b11c178232c4317403a.jpg

Just got this in the post. Do you think the cover of the July 1970 AOPA mag had a picture of a 70 year old airplane? (What would that be...the Wright Flyer? A Curtiss monoplane?)

As a matter of fact, no! It was a bada$$ Cessna 310 that made you want to be like Sky King and tear off with all your friends and family into far off adventures, grow your business and just generally improve your lifestyle. 

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Or it was the sexy new Mooney ~10 years earlier. 
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The biggest hindrance to relevancy today, in my opinion, is the cost. Second is the corner we’ve painted ourselves into being a quaint world of hobbyists.<—perception... Sure, a 1970 Mooney performs as well or better than some of the modern stuff, but you can’t sustain an industry with 60year old airplanes or $800k variations of that old design.

We need growth. Innovation drives growth. 

Like @Blue on Top  said it’s all “perception” and the perception to outsiders is that we GA pilots are all fanatics akin to the guys who keep their model T’s running and polished up to drive once a year in the 4th of July parade. The average Joe doesn’t consider GA as a real tool for commerce and lifestyle (like I do).

I’m 35 years old. A little younger than My father was when he bought his first airplane in the late 70s. There are basically zero factory-new offerings for me in a price range below $400k (which isn’t even in my price range)...while 50 years ago there were probably a dozen.

The parachute plane people have done a better job than anyone (in recent years) creating the  perception that owning and flying your own plane is achievable or a even good idea. 

The experimental and LSA world have done more to innovate than everyone else combined. 
 

I get what you’re saying @Blue on Top about build time vs a factory-built airplane. I don’t have data but I would guess the majority of current experimental category owners did NOT build their airplane. I personally was between the Mooney and an RV-9 (or an RV-12) for my first airplane purchase. And I wasn’t going to build anything myself. Nostalgia for the Mooney won me over. (a little hypocritical considering my rant against quaint “hobbyism”!)

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34 minutes ago, wingtipwalker said:

What GA needs is some innovation and scale.

We’re creating a thriving aviation museum community. Producing 4.5 planes per year doesn’t replace the aging fleet. So used prices continue to climb, fewer people take up flying because it’s expensive and “dangerous” in “rickety old airplanes” and so fewer planes stay in service. I hate to be a downer but GA as an industry is in a bit of a flat spin. 

Case in point:image.thumb.jpg.63fa31a5b56f3b11c178232c4317403a.jpg

Just got this in the post. Do you think the cover of the July 1970 AOPA mag had a picture of a 70 year old airplane? (What would that be...the Wright Flyer? A Curtiss monoplane?)

As a matter of fact, no! It was a bada$$ Cessna 310 that made you want to be like Sky King and tear off with all your friends and family into far off adventures, grow your business and just generally improve your lifestyle. 

03EBCE9C-C3B6-4DC3-892E-B7E6C6EE3AAA.thumb.jpeg.5c72900b508db6929fefc29999f9b4d4.jpeg
Or it was the sexy new Mooney ~10 years earlier. 
1E1A2C91-73CD-4C4B-8302-95E209FBDF7D.thumb.jpeg.2fbf9c863c1b444421a6ea7050896860.jpeg

The biggest hindrance to relevancy today, in my opinion, is the cost. Second is the corner we’ve painted ourselves into being a quaint world of hobbyists.<—perception... Sure, a 1970 Mooney performs as well or better than some of the modern stuff, but you can’t sustain an industry with 60year old airplanes or $800k variations of that old design.

We need growth. Innovation drives growth. 

Like @Blue on Top  said it’s all “perception” and the perception to outsiders is that we GA pilots are all fanatics akin to the guys who keep their model T’s running and polished up to drive once a year in the 4th of July parade. The average Joe doesn’t consider GA as a real tool for commerce and lifestyle (like I do).

I’m 35 years old. A little younger than My father was when he bought his first airplane in the late 70s. There are basically zero factory-new offerings for me in a price range below $400k (which isn’t even in my price range)...while 50 years ago there were probably a dozen.

The parachute plane people have done a better job than anyone (in recent years) creating the  perception that owning and flying your own plane is achievable or a even good idea. 

The experimental and LSA world have done more to innovate than everyone else combined. 
 

I get what you’re saying @Blue on Top about build time vs a factory-built airplane. I don’t have data but I would guess the majority of current experimental category owners did NOT build their airplane. I personally was between the Mooney and an RV-9 (or an RV-12) for my first airplane purchase. And I wasn’t going to build anything myself. Nostalgia for the Mooney won me over. (a little hypocritical considering my rant against quaint “hobbyism”!)

Man, I absolutely love that Mooney paint scheme/colors !!

739A4E5E-BE46-4DC8-80E3-B4212CC082E4.jpeg

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WTW...

You are where I was when I bought my M20C...

A decade later, The blue hair folks were at KOSH sharing lemonade.... And having ice cream...

(this is where I met my friend MooneyMitch!) :)

For years... the insurance companies have taken all the blame for making GA too expensive...

To put real numbers on things...  Mooneys have always been expensive...

Back in the 60s... they cost 2X what a Corvette did...

That would make a Mooney cost about 200AMU... not cheap, but much more available....

Today’s Mooneys aren’t the same stripper... digital radios, Global satellites, fuel injection, airbag seat belts.... touch screens... fully integrated....

My M20C was a stripper...original radios, Vinyl interior, cloth side panels, and rug.... Somebody added a loran... I used it until the sun set on Loran...

Mooney half attempted the stripper route... with a decontented Eagle... and a few fake highly noticeable limitations... it had all the cost of producing a real Ovation, but had the HP and range limited by a few reversible tricks... it looked bad all the way around... it really helps to have machine marketing skills to avoid this debacle.  Most customers for new planes are really smart...

Have a seat in a modern Mooney... and then compare to all the others.... It is a tremendous traveling machine...

With touches of modernity similar to a fancy car.... AC, airbags, fine leather all around... color touch screens.... integrated cell phone...the works... it comes with cup holders and another door... for convenience. :)

 

Economics helps when you build thousands each year...

What drove people to be that interested in flying..?

When they compared to their cars... the empty weighted planes didn’t appear so bare...
 

The same number of people are probably interested in flying... then they visit the nearest airport... the numbers dwindle from there...

So many steps get in the way...

too expensive...

too tiny...

Too loud...
 

Too old...

Too dirty...

too whatever...

Too different...

 

Then you work up to...

Too difficult...

Too expensive...

Too inconvenient.... Uber helps in this area....
 

Then you have to fight off the eco-green people... too much Pb in the atmosphere... speaking of things that haven’t moved... our engines can handle lead free gas...

Where were we going?

Planes are stuck with a few things... aerodynamics doesn’t change... small cabins rule... FAA manufacturing limitations are a drag... (the FAA is getting way better....)

Change comes from within... don’t expect somebody to do this for you...

It helps to have an engineering level background, with awesome mechanic’s skills, and be willing to talk to everyone....  Think like an Elon Musk kind of person....  but be better behaved...   :)

You have to have sold a billion dollar company already to behave the way Elon does now....

PP thoughts only...

Best regards,

-a-

 

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Ref the guy who went to OSH to buy a new Mooney.  What if the Chinese plan was NOT to sell many Mooneys in the USA but only keep the name alive while they made plans to manufacture in China (where labor is cheap)?  I suspect Mooney has not made money for years (evident by each failure and change of ownership). Anyone know how much labor materials and overhead costs were in a new Mooney?  I bet they took a 6 figure loss on each sale so the more sold = the more in the hole they were.  

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28 minutes ago, chinoguym20 said:

What if the Chinese plan was NOT to sell many Mooneys in the USA but only keep the name alive while they made plans to manufacture in China (where labor is cheap)?

That opinion surfaced earlier in that the Chinese needed a certified platform from which to not only build in China but also sell. Apparently the GA community there is growing.

My guess is that they underestimated the Feds Against Aviation :P

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10 hours ago, carusoam said:

Simple question...

what new plane would you buy with your 800amu?

Everyone has a list of dozens of planes they wouldn't buy...

 

You are probably going to be like me....

You're buying a used (fill in the blank)...

To get the most performance out of your dollars...

I think I would be interested in exploring something with a turbine.... :)


The people I saw buying new Mooneys are using it as part of their lifestyle... work and personal....

When flying between offices states away... the new Mooney really makes sense...

800amu is a ton of dough... especially if you only use it on the weekends...

Best regards,

-a-

If I was spending 800k it would not have a piston engine hanging off the front. If I had that kind of money to spend, it would also mean that I have the wherewithal to maintain a turbine as well. 

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4 minutes ago, Bravoman said:

If I was spending 800k it would not have a piston engine hanging off the front. If I had that kind of money to spend, it would also mean that I have the wherewithal to maintain a turbine as well. 

Not necessarily say you have one million bucks, buy the turbine at $800,000 your left with $200,000 not enough to maintain a turbine. I bought a new Mooney in 2005 luckily I can maintain it..all costs say $30,000 per year give or take 10 gs depending on unforeseen stuff. If you took a loan on the turbine you’d most likely be ok. Many don’t like loans.

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11 minutes ago, Bravoman said:

If I was spending 800k it would not have a piston engine hanging off the front. If I had that kind of money to spend, it would also mean that I have the wherewithal to maintain a turbine as well. 

You are comparing apples to oranges.  A new turbine-powered airplane will cost several million.  https://www.flyingmag.com/photo-gallery/photos/piper-meridian-m500-versus-world-comparison-specs/

What bothers me most is that there is plenty of effort going into aviation development right now; the problem is that it is all this preposterous battery-powered crap.  That lame idea is absorbing all the innovation funding, except for the small amounts devoted to supersonics and to UAVs. 

ARMY20.2 Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR)Proposal Submission Instructions

ARMY 40A20-112TITLE: Compact, High Performance Engines for Air Launched Effects UASRT&L FOCUS AREA(S): general warfighting TECHNOLOGY AREA(S): Air Platform

Edited by Ah-1 Cobra Pilot
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Dan maybe I’m wrong but I don’t think that you necessarily have to spend that much money maintaining a turbine. Say the hot section was recently done when you buy it. Of course we are  talking about older planes for the price to come in at 800k. A friend of mine bought a TBM 700 a couple of years ago for something along the lines of what we are talking about and I don’t think he has put anywhere near 200k  into the plane so far.

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7 hours ago, ArtVandelay said:


No wing walk?

Yep...... white mixed in with Pismo Beach sand !:D

I didn’t want any color contrast on the wing, so white it is.  It’s actually a pearl white.

Next question...... how does it stay white?  Answer........by not walking on it. (towel placed on it prior to entry).   

My opinion...... in certain situations, aesthetics are more important than functionality.......at least for me.  I like it !! :)

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3 minutes ago, Bravoman said:

Dan maybe I’m wrong but I don’t think that you necessarily have to spend that much money maintaining a turbine.

 Piper PA46 come in piston and turbine versions. Many (including me) assert the ongoing maintenance expense of the turbine is lower than for the piston.

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22 minutes ago, Bravoman said:

...it would also mean that I have the wherewithal to maintain a turbine as well. 

Yup. Some fail to realize that the purchase price of an aircraft is hardly the entire expense involved.

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