Danb

HISTORIC DECLINE IN FATAL ACCIDENT’S

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According to the recent Nall report accidents declined for the third straight year while total hours increased by some 12%. The report indicates a sharp decrease in weather related accidents. I surmise ADSB and other weather depicting instruments at our disposal such as the IPAD lends to the decrease. Pilot training and awareness items such as AOPA’s programs and airplane specific programs such as the Mooney Summit helps immensely. I only hope the trend continues, we still get a bad rap and reputation from the public something we hope to live with,

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*Members that donate $10 or more do not see advertisements*

Easy and inexpensive weather depiction.  You don't blunder into it when you know it's ahead of you.

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Three straight years of decreasing accidents, without fudging the numbers of hours flown....  

That qualifies as a trend doesn’t it?!?!?

Keep up the good work everybody....!

Now where is Parker???  :)

Best regards,

-a-

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Fatalities are down? Or fatal accidents?

How about the overall accident rate?

If everything is trending down while hours flown is steady or increasing, then our insurance premiums should also be trending downwards to match!

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48 minutes ago, Hank said:

Fatalities are down? Or fatal accidents?

How about the overall accident rate?

If everything is trending down while hours flown is steady or increasing, then our insurance premiums should also be trending downwards to match!

Heavens no!  That’s anti-capitalism!

More clients, less claims..... keep prices up, or even increase.......more $’s to be made.  :)

 

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Hank hours up, fatalities down. The report is on AOPA today.

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6 hours ago, Hank said:

Fatalities are down? Or fatal accidents?

How about the overall accident rate?

If everything is trending down while hours flown is steady or increasing, then our insurance premiums should also be trending downwards to match!

100% agree, but we are told that GA insurance is increasing because of the Boeing Max crashes.  Just a load of crap.  Our insurance should be going DOWN NOT UP.  Not a damn thing you can do, but start your own company....Sigh.

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14 hours ago, Hank said:

Fatalities are down? Or fatal accidents?

How about the overall accident rate?

If everything is trending down while hours flown is steady or increasing, then our insurance premiums should also be trending downwards to match!

Well apparently there were some 737 crashes that cost a lot of money so we gotta pay higher premiums.

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Per the discussions I've had (or read) recently with insurance people, the problem is multi-faceted:

  1. The 737 MAX claims alone are expected to be (a lot) larger than the entire market's premiums this year.
  2. There are more claim dollars being paid overall (more GA flying, so more claims in general).
  3. There has been a sizable market contraction in underwriters (read: several have left the market in the last year or two).
  4. What underwriters that are left underwrite our policies and the big airline policies (not 100% overlap, but close enough).
  5. Investment dollars into the aviation underwriting market have reduced significantly in the last year or two.
  6. Premiums have been under-stated for some years ("buying business").  The market cannot afford to do so any longer.

The Nall report is great, but it is focused on fatal accidents.  I don't think it's fair to make statements about what premiums should do based on its data alone.

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4 hours ago, Browncbr1 said:

What year was the adsb mandate enacted?

2020.

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1 hour ago, Hank said:

2020.

I mean, when was it announced that 2020 would be the deadline?

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1 hour ago, Browncbr1 said:

I mean, when was it announced that 2020 would be the deadline?

2012? Maybe earlier. Long time ago. 

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2 hours ago, Hank said:

2012? Maybe earlier. Long time ago. 

Wiki has this:

On 27 May 2010, the FAA published its final rule mandating that by 2020 all aircraft owners will be required to have ADS-B Out capabilities when operating in any airspace that currently requires a transponder (A, B, and C, and airspace class E at certain altitudes).

This wasn't all that long ago and I remember reading here on Mooneyspace comments about how it's not going to work as described, it would cost $20,000 per airplane to equip and that the compliance date will be moved out five to ten years further into the future to at least 2025.

 

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58 minutes ago, flyboy0681 said:

Wiki has this:

On 27 May 2010, the FAA published its final rule mandating that by 2020 all aircraft owners will be required to have ADS-B Out capabilities when operating in any airspace that currently requires a transponder (A, B, and C, and airspace class E at certain altitudes).

This wasn't all that long ago and I remember reading here on Mooneyspace comments about how it's not going to work as described, it would cost $20,000 per airplane to equip and that the compliance date will be moved out five to ten years further into the future to at least 2025.

 

Didn't many early adopters pay 8-10 AMU + installation?

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Just now, Hank said:

Didn't many early adopters pay 8-10 AMU + installation?

Depends on the equipment they installed I guess. We had the GDL 88 installed in 2015 and it cost a hair under $4k.

But I would be remiss if I didn't say that early adopters always pay more. How much did they pay for an LCD TV or "got to have" iPhone? Heck, I still have a receipt from 1987 from when I paid $3,100k for a PC with an Intel 386 chip.

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The PA46 fatal accident count and rate are down. The partial and total hull loss figures are up.  Insurance premiums based on both liability and hull coverage are up some 10-20% this year compared to last. The hull portion is more, liability about the same. 

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According to the recent Nall report accidents declined for the third straight year while total hours increased by some 12%. The report indicates a sharp decrease in weather related accidents. I surmise ADSB and other weather depicting instruments at our disposal such as the IPAD lends to the decrease. Pilot training and awareness items such as AOPA’s programs and airplane specific programs such as the Mooney Summit helps immensely. I only hope the trend continues, we still get a bad rap and reputation from the public something we hope to live with,

Wait. You mean to tell me that if we put Avionics that are not from the '50s and TSO but rather experimental type Avionics they give us good situational awareness and weather information it increases safety? Wow, who knew? 

FAA, reducing the pilot population one accident at a time.

 

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

 

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On 10/12/2019 at 6:30 AM, afward said:

Per the discussions I've had (or read) recently with insurance people, the problem is multi-faceted:

  1. The 737 MAX claims alone are expected to be (a lot) larger than the entire market's premiums this year.
  2. There are more claim dollars being paid overall (more GA flying, so more claims in general).
  3. There has been a sizable market contraction in underwriters (read: several have left the market in the last year or two).
  4. What underwriters that are left underwrite our policies and the big airline policies (not 100% overlap, but close enough).
  5. Investment dollars into the aviation underwriting market have reduced significantly in the last year or two.
  6. Premiums have been under-stated for some years ("buying business").  The market cannot afford to do so any longer.

The Nall report is great, but it is focused on fatal accidents.  I don't think it's fair to make statements about what premiums should do based on its data alone.

Pretty much all of this. Add to it that flight school aircraft are flying double and the increase in GA flying activity still leads to an increase in hangar rash, etc. 

3 underwriting left the market in 15 months. They don’t leave if they are making money.

The cost of fixing airplanes has gone up. So has the cost of litigation and the liability payouts.

In times like these, I am glad 90% of my clients are with companies that have been around for 40+ years where the claims service is good and I don’t have to scramble to find a quality home for them when the new-ish carrier non-renews.

Claims with a carrier on the way out can be a real pain.

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On 10/11/2019 at 2:24 PM, Danb said:

According to the recent Nall report accidents declined for the third straight year while total hours increased by some 12%. The report indicates a sharp decrease in weather related accidents. I surmise ADSB and other weather depicting instruments at our disposal such as the IPAD lends to the decrease. Pilot training and awareness items such as AOPA’s programs and airplane specific programs such as the Mooney Summit helps immensely. I only hope the trend continues, we still get a bad rap and reputation from the public something we hope to live with,

I would be careful to read too much into this...especially as a "trend" of sorts. Although I had been doing a ton of weather training and major improvements to ForeFlight weather during that time. ;-)  

There was also a drop in 2006, 2008, & 2010, but an equivalent increase occurred the subsequent year.  What these stats don’t include are weather related *incidents* that don’t get reported as accidents, but are still just as concerning, especially those that involve loss of control or VFR into IMC which still kills more pilots than icing, turbulence and thunderstorms put together. Yes it’s good to hear less of these are resulting in an accident, but the research I’ve been doing for my PhD says the number of weather related incidents has not been declining.  An incident would be something like a loss of control due to airframe icing resulting in a hard landing (that didn't cause damage or enough damage to be reported). 

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