Hurricane logistics

[ArtVandelay]

There is still time to call your insurance company to find out how much they will pay to have you move the plane...

I’ll call afterwards, in the end it’s not about the money. I think they will only pay if a hurricane watch or warning is issue. I flew out this morning, didn’t want to wait till the last moment.



Tom

[chriscalandro]

My insurance doesn’t pay anything to move and says they will take the loss. I have a lot more time invested in getting my 67c in shape than money, and even though it’s covered for more than I have into it, it would be difficult to replace and to lose the work I’ve done. 

Im going to head out either tonight or in the morning depending on weather. Mid state looks pretty nasty right now. I figure I’ll make an adventure out of it, maybe get some BBQ and just use it as an excuse to get away for a few days with my airplane. 

Edited August 30, 2019 by chriscalandro

[Davidv]

Good news, Sheltair is able to offer me some ramp space in Denver:

[mike_elliott]

10 minutes ago, Hyett6420 said:

Some people are leaving the whole USA and camping in southern England for this one, isnt that right @neilpilot  . 

Last hurricane, Irma, chased me up to Memphis where Alice and I hunkered down with Neil and Becky. I flew CarolAnn Garratts famous J up there and that hurricane just followed us up. Neil must have figured it was coming again and vamonos'd to the fatherland..

[bradp]

Like the line from space balls “oh $hit, not again” 

-Wilmington, NC. 

[Amelia]

I’d offer bedrooms and hangar space in lovely little Edenton, NC, but now Scott D has me worried. Maybe I’ll need to double the docklines and look for a hidey hole to fly out to myself. Offer of coastal B&B stands, whether we chicken out or not.

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

11 hours ago, scottd said:

Been watching Dorian has it has shown some odd characteristics and has been somewhat difficult to forecast.   I mentioned on another board that I expected to see Dorian slow down considerably before turning to the northwest-north as it approaches and makes landfall in Florida.  What I've noticed from a few days ago, all of the model guidance has been wanting to take this storm to the coast of Florida a lot faster than it has been actually moving.  That's good for evacuations. 

It was originally expected to make landfall in Florida as a tropical storm early Sunday morning, but now is looking like Tuesday morning as a category 4 hurricane as you can see by this loop...I expect this trend to continue such that by later today or tomorrow the forecast will be pushed back even more as the system continues to slow.  That means Dorian could take an earlier turn to the north as that ridge over Bermuda is expected to retreat creating an even worse situation if it stays just along the coastal regions as it moves north.  Depending on how far the storm remains off shore would determine how quickly it would weaken, but it would batter a much greater length of the coastline and keep the fuel for the storm pumping in from the warm Atlantic waters dumping more precipitation as it drifts north.

      

 

Appears the scenario I described above is becoming more likely with the potential of the storm remaining off shore.

[carusoam]

Thanks for the updates Scott.

Best regards,

-a-

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

The storm continues to slow down as I suspected and a direct landfall in Florida isn't as likely.  This has given the chance for the ridge to the northeast to weaken allowing Dorian to take a much earlier turn to the north-northwest.  Still a major hurricane, the center of circulation will remain offshore based on the latest guidance from the NHC.  As I said earlier, this storm had some odd characteristics from the beginning and has been difficult to forecast.  There is still a significant threat of storm surge as this category 4 storm passes along the southeastern U.S. from south-central Florida through the Carolinas.   

Don't let your guard down yet.  From the NHC -

"The track guidance for this part of the track is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is near the ECMWF, UKMET, and HCCA corrected consensus models. The track forecast becomes much more problematic after 48 h.  The global models the NHC normally uses, along with the regional HWRF and HMON models, have made another shift to the east to the point where none of them forecast Dorian to make landfall in Florida.  However, the UKMET ensemble mean still brings the hurricane over the Florida peninsula, as do several GFS and ECMWF ensemble members.  The new track forecast for 72-120 h will be moved eastward to stay east of the coast of Florida, and it lies between the old forecast and the various consensus models." 

Looking back at earlier runs of the models, it was amazing to see that the GFS had a pretty good handle on this storm early on.  This run below was from 06Z on August 28th.  I think the ECMWF had a better handle on slowing down the storm, but tended to take the track much further to the south.  

The ECMWF had a totally different solution taking it pretty far south and then into the Gulf.

[1964-M20E]

I hope all who experience Dorian fair well.  I'm glad to see it staying more in the Atlantic at least for now.  One thing for sure it is not over yet and the horizontally challenged lady has not sung yet.

 

On a brighter note I think I'll go to JKA today.

[Yetti]

Both models this moring have it sideswiping the SE seaboard with the most telling landfall in North Carolina.  North Carolina may get more than Florida. There is a front coming down from the North West that is going to tell the tale based on timing.  IF it can push down, it will pick up the storm and shove it back out to sea.  The biggest thing is that early fronts don't have a lot of energy and tend to stall out.   The Aviation weather surface charts are not as encouraging about the boundry layer moving in from the NW.   It is still weird that everyone is going "Oh Crap Florida"  And not "Oh Crap SE Atlantic Coast"   It just moves all the Florida people up the coast and then they are going to have to evacuate again when the storm chases them.

Edited August 31, 2019 by Yetti

[Yetti]

Not a whole lot that is man made can stand up to 160 MPH winds.   Well except a Mooney in cruise :-)

I flew a relief flight into Rockport Texas after they took a direct hit from Harvey.   Basically stripped all the vegetation.  

This lamp post was at the airport. and one of the hangars made from cinder blocks

 

 

[Yetti]

Oh and Operation Air Drop is waiting in the wings so to speak.   https://www.operation-airdrop.com/

[Hank]

3 minutes ago, Yetti said:

Oh and Operation Air Drop is waiting in the wings so to speak.   https://www.operation-airdrop.com/

They are already sending out emails and trying to set up supply bases and distribution. Great folks! 

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

13 minutes ago, bluehighwayflyer said:

Agreed.  My favorite weather app, MyRadar Pro, now has it losing strength as at parallels the Florida coast, though, making landfall near Savannah as  a Category 2.  

If this thing is threatening you in the upper category ranges, guys, my advice is to just leave.  No preparation you do is going to change anything.  Just get out.  

 

Jim,

You are right on the money. This isn't a storm to full around with...as I mentioned in my post, there's still a risk of storm surge in Florida as it passes offshore.  Of course the amount of surge will depend on just how close it gets.  What worries me though is that this wasn't be best performance by the NHC.  You evacuate the entire state of Florida, but it barely has an impact (assuming the current trends continue).  The next storm, will people heed the warnings for the next major storm to impact the area?  Being in this business I can say for sure that there are a ton of variables that need to be considered and there's a ton of data to look at in a limited amount of time.  Just shows we have a long way to go before we can understand how to predict the complexities of Mother Nature. 

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

Latest forecast.  Somebody needs to teach Dorian to read the forecast.  Must be a Republican storm...seems to be always leaning to the right. 

[bradp]

Not liking that wind cone for SE NC.

Seems like it’s accelerating more rapidly a bit earlier than in the previous forecasts. 

[ArtVandelay]

Kudos to the pilots and meteorologists who fly into these storms to get the detail measurements that make today’s forecasts so much more accurate. The GFS model lead the way days ago with the early right turn.


Tom

[Bob_Belville]

16 hours ago, Amelia said:

Maybe I’ll need to double the docklines and look for a hidey hole to fly out to myself. 

It does appear you'll be getting some serious salt spray out of this... you and Rob should plan on a high and dry holiday in Morganton. We'll put a kettle on. Spook's welcome if he's around these days.

[MIm20c]

I’m glad it’s looking less forceful for areas of Florida. However, every time I see the predicted paths smashing through the Bahamas at full strength I get concerned. No infrastructure/resources to snap back from a storm like that. The loss of life can also be astronomically high if it hits heavily populated areas with little help from the outside world. 

[Davidv]

The part that’s a little nerve racking is that it’s going to head towards Freeport and just hangout there for 24+ hours while we bank on a sharp turn to the right. 

[Yetti]

9 hours ago, ArtVandelay said:

Kudos to the pilots and meteorologists who fly into these storms to get the detail measurements that make today’s forecasts so much more accurate. The GFS model lead the way days ago with the early right turn.


Tom

I have wanted to do the Hurricane Hunter thing since I was a wee Yetti in the mountains of Nepal.  My understanding is it is hours of boredom interspliced with sheer terror moments.

[Yetti]

I am with @scottd something just does not feel right on this storm.   It seems to me that it would make more sense to cross over Florida and go into the Gulf.   They usually try to flip around the end of stalled fronts.   It does look like Bahamas and Central Florida is going to take a real wooping.

[mike_elliott]

5 hours ago, Yetti said:

It does look like Bahamas and Central Florida is going to take a real wooping

not nearly like the wooping I'd get if I abandoned my bride to go fly with a new ultra owner next week....

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

Very sobering. From the NHC. 

“The distinct eye of powerful Hurricane Dorian is moving over Great Abaco.  The latest wind and pressure data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane just before the eye hit the island indicated that the winds reached 160 kt, which is the initial intensity for this advisory. It is not very often that we measure such strong winds. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 910 mb.”