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How much will the market bear for a nice J


chriman17

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1 minute ago, carusoam said:

What keeps you from buying a J and flying it for a few years... it has twice the number of seats than you need.

Is having children part of the equation? Have you seen the cost of day care?  :)

Wait til you get to see the cost of college 20years from now... 

 

Back on target...

The M20E is really sensible for somebody that can’t define the mission with any accuracy or detail...

Many M20Es are used for young families and post retirement pilots...

For the 20% flights... is this where you want to take friends with you?

there are a lot of friends that fit in the back of the M20E... See Bob’s Pics..

 

Work on defining your mission....

If you have done this already... can you share it?

Best regards,

-a-

I haven't ruled out E's or F's, I just like some of the features of a post 83 J. Single piece belly, removable / fold down rear seats, etc. Unless the market tanks or you buy wrong, I don't see where there's going to be a major difference in cost of ownership between the two beyond maybe the electric gear. 

Yes, that 20% is with my friends and my closest friend is slightly curvy who some how managed to achieve 285. I feel like he's put a spear into my shopping. Distance with the wife would never be more than 500nm in a single leg. That trip could see three of us with some luggage. 

We are moving to NC and will need to travel back and forth to Albany NY, so that will be the primary mission. 10/15% with the friends would be less than 1.5hrs. 

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Work on your weight and balance skills...

A few people around here weigh in, in a similar way as your friend...

Where you put people and arrange the cockpit may take some planning...

E, F, and J... all use the same engine... flight economics will be so similar, it will take a fine tooth comb to separate the differences...

It is the capital cost that separates them out...

 

If an E fits your mission... it’s UL is about the same as an F... but the E is a couple of hundred pound lighter than the F...allowing the E pilot to carry more fuel to cross the country with...

You are a very generous person... I don’t think I have ever bought a vehicle, house or plane so I could fit my friends in them... I bought a two seater once... before children...

Best regards,

-a-

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Good planes priced well have always sold very quickly. In this market, good planes priced even a bit on the high side seem to be moving. You'll need to be ready to pounce when you find one that meets your needs.

I'd still argue that J only has to have ADS-B out. WAAS GPS is certainly nice, but it is a luxury. I would think for trips on the east coast it is less useful than in my slice of the plains since airway routing is still common whereas I get GPS direct almost always. I understand if a new pilot came up on GPS and moving maps that it would be hard to downgrade to VOR's but hundreds of thousands of us did it for many years. ;) An iPad and ADS-B in make a great supplement to a vintage panel to help situational awareness while you're debating the merits of a 50k panel upgrade, or if a J or Bonanza might even be the right plane for you.

I think I told you at OSH that holding out for a later model J with a very modern panel could take years...most folks that make the investment will not relinquish them until it is time for the estate sale. You might get lucky, though, or you may sit on the sidelines for years while looking.

(There was a famous troll here and on Beechtalk years ago that got booted from both sites because he was an endless shopper/tire-kicker that always ran down the "junk" on the market and insulting folks instead of defining his mission and buying a plane that met his needs. I don't even think he was an intentional troll, and he got MANY genuine offers of help before folks grew tired of his arrogance despite being inexperienced. Don't fall into the trap of paralysis by analysis, or you'll never jump in and participate in all of the fun we're having!)

Sent from my LG-US996 using Tapatalk

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If you want to see what the top end of the J market looks like - look at @jclemens restoration project. I don’t think @Rmags is for sale but you could use that benchmark for valuation.  Other nice examples of Js are @jetdriven and @Becca (not for sale) and @Bennett off the top of my head.  I know what mine is woth roughly- but I don’t know what the market will bear.  I’m thinking for a complete refurb J with a nice panel and autopilot, your looking at 130-135 max. 

A lot of us J owners are upside down though.  I know I am.  

Most people will buy a plane that suits 80% of the mission.  

Solid maintenance and functional autopilot are really important.  Engine monitor is really important.  2020 compliance is extremely important as shops are booked past 2020.  

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I'd still argue that J only has to have ADS-B out. WAAS GPS is certainly nice, but it is a luxury.

Airplanes are a luxury, if money (and not losing any when owning a plane) is a requirement...don’t buy a airplane.
There, I just saved you $$$$.

Now, if you want the luxury of having your own plane and you want the luxury of a nice interior, paint job, avionics...it’s going to cost you. The best way to get your money’s worth is to fly it, the more you fly, the cheaper the upgrades are in relation to the overall costs. The most expensive plane is the one you don’t use.


Tom
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5 minutes ago, ArtVandelay said:


Airplanes are a luxury, if money (and not losing any when owning a plane) is a requirement...don’t buy a airplane.
There, I just saved you $$$$.

Now, if you want the luxury of having your own plane and you want the luxury of a nice interior, paint job, avionics...it’s going to cost you. The best way to get your money’s worth is to fly it, the more you fly, the cheaper the upgrades are in relation to the overall costs. The most expensive plane is the one you don’t use.


Tom

I think you're missing the entire point of my post. I'm aware it's a luxury and I'm prepared to spend the money, but like any sensible person, they'd like to buy right and not throw money down the toilet. If I fully understood my mission and knew for sure the plane would meet my needs over the next 10yrs, then I would be much less concerned with being upside down. Right now I'd like to know the top of the market so I can value the purchase with upgrades. 

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4 minutes ago, chriman17 said:

I think you're missing the entire point of my post. I'm aware it's a luxury and I'm prepared to spend the money, but like any sensible person, they'd like to buy right and not throw money down the toilet. If I fully understood my mission and knew for sure the plane would meet my needs over the next 10yrs, then I would be much less concerned with being upside down. Right now I'd like to know the top of the market so I can value the purchase with upgrades. 

The labor $’s you spend on the panel and maintaining the aircraft will be a sunk cost. IF the economy stays strong with cheap avgas available you will do ok with the principal / hardware upgrades. The J above IMO would fetch 150k with 50 spent on the panel (20k of labor). 

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17 minutes ago, MIm20c said:

The labor $’s you spend on the panel and maintaining the aircraft will be a sunk cost. IF the economy stays strong with cheap avgas available you will do ok with the principal / hardware upgrades. The J above IMO would fetch 150k with 50 spent on the panel (20k of labor). 

Thank you, that's all I was looking for and yes, "IF" the economy stays strong is correct. I believe the economy is approaching the top based on what I'm seeing in the housing market again, so I'm trying to be a little cautious. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob_Belville said:

ISTM, aircraft ownership is more satisfying if you understand that a plane is not an investment. 

Well aware and never considered it one. I'm the original founder of cardaddy.com and moved millions of vehicles through my site prior to my acquisition a few years ago, so I'm very aware of buying anything with an engine. There's an old saying in the car bizz, if you want a fast car, don't try and make a slow car fast, just buy a fast car. I feel the same principals exist in aviation except the supply is very limited. I'd much rather buy something completed, but finding it...

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Current pricing on a J model is all over the place, depending on the J. Recently, one sold for slightly under $200k. Several folks marveled at the astronomical price until they learned only 2 years ago it sold for over $200k.

It would not be unheard of to spend $150k and up for the 205 you are looking at with a fully upgraded panel. One of the members here, @gsxrpilot, has a list he made of priorities to find when searching for an airplane. It goes from "absolutely have to have" to "would be nice" and includes things such as corrosion-free plane, mid-time engine, WAAS GPS, etc. based on what he wanted from his plane. If you can prioritize what you want to have in the plane when you buy it, what you are willing to put in (spend $$ on), and what you can wait to do, if ever, you can quickly eliminate planes you see.

My 1984 J was purchased in 2013 for well under $100k, but is currently insured for $125K with no argument from my broker. This year, it is getting a new interior, IFD 540, and a few other upgrades. Next year it is in line for the Aspen MAX upgrades for the PFD and MFD. After all that is done, I will probably push the insurance up higher, and again I expect no problems with my broker taking the new figure. 

I carry 4 people in my plane on a regular basis, although the trips we take are usually within 2 hours. We are often close to gross, but then again, I am 6'5" and 215 and the friends we take total about 350 lbs. together (not sharing my wife's wt. Not stupid.). The four of us have gone from my home airport in central Alabama to about a hour west of Houston. We made one stop as we are more limited by bladders than fuel.

The last thing I will say is be careful of getting a "deal". With your automotive background, you probably know those are rare and they almost always have something which makes them a money pit rather than a deal. With a plane, the problem is not only the cash, but there can be hidden problems which could, at best, make your plane not airworthy and at worst cost you a life. The same MS member, @gsxrpilot has a list of those of us who have gotten deals only to find out they were "Mooney" pits. Best of luck in your search.

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38 minutes ago, Oldguy said:

Current pricing on a J model is all over the place, depending on the J. Recently, one sold for slightly under $200k. Several folks marveled at the astronomical price until they learned only 2 years ago it sold for over $200k.

It would not be unheard of to spend $150k and up for the 205 you are looking at with a fully upgraded panel. One of the members here, @gsxrpilot, has a list he made of priorities to find when searching for an airplane. It goes from "absolutely have to have" to "would be nice" and includes things such as corrosion-free plane, mid-time engine, WAAS GPS, etc. based on what he wanted from his plane. If you can prioritize what you want to have in the plane when you buy it, what you are willing to put in (spend $$ on), and what you can wait to do, if ever, you can quickly eliminate planes you see.

My 1984 J was purchased in 2013 for well under $100k, but is currently insured for $125K with no argument from my broker. This year, it is getting a new interior, IFD 540, and a few other upgrades. Next year it is in line for the Aspen MAX upgrades for the PFD and MFD. After all that is done, I will probably push the insurance up higher, and again I expect no problems with my broker taking the new figure. 

I carry 4 people in my plane on a regular basis, although the trips we take are usually within 2 hours. We are often close to gross, but then again, I am 6'5" and 215 and the friends we take total about 350 lbs. together (not sharing my wife's wt. Not stupid.). The four of us have gone from my home airport in central Alabama to about a hour west of Houston. We made one stop as we are more limited by bladders than fuel.

The last thing I will say is be careful of getting a "deal". With your automotive background, you probably know those are rare and they almost always have something which makes them a money pit rather than a deal. With a plane, the problem is not only the cash, but there can be hidden problems which could, at best, make your plane not airworthy and at worst cost you a life. The same MS member, @gsxrpilot has a list of those of us who have gotten deals only to find out they were "Mooney" pits. Best of luck in your search.

Well said, thanks.

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The small quantity of planes in your target zone will be your biggest challenge. You can probably find annual production numbers on the web, but know that the peak was in the early 80's and then a steady decline until J production stopped in 98 with only a dozen or two made. 205's were quite limited...Less than 100 IIRC in total over two years.

So, consider the total population that is still airworthy, has been upgraded, and might be for sale in the next few months...and at a price that you think is not upside down immediately. You might have to do some of the upgrades yourself if you don't want to wait for years for a unicorn to appear.

Another tactic is to reach out to the bigger Mooney shops and let them know what you are looking for, and they might give you leads to those nice planes that aren't flying much anymore and perhaps you can get one before it hits the open market or an estate sale situation.

Sent from my LG-US996 using Tapatalk

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9 hours ago, Bob_Belville said:

ISTM, aircraft ownership is more satisfying if you understand that a plane is not an investment. 

Amen Bob, like a boat if you want it ,use it and can afford to maintain it why not, otherwise consider tennis or another nice venture.

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9 hours ago, chriman17 said:

Well aware and never considered it one. I'm the original founder of cardaddy.com and moved millions of vehicles through my site prior to my acquisition a few years ago, so I'm very aware of buying anything with an engine. There's an old saying in the car bizz, if you want a fast car, don't try and make a slow car fast, just buy a fast car. I feel the same principals exist in aviation except the supply is very limited. I'd much rather buy something completed, but finding it...

A nice new Ultra awaits

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If planning to upgrade, you’ll lose a lot less on a J than a older models .  Js are considered modern after all ;-) and having higher upside.

My older J has 1000lbs useful load, so if limit fuel to 50g, 5 hours worth, more than most people want to be in a small plane, that leaves 700lbs or 175lbs per person if seating 4.  Seems like enough even if planning to have a couple of kids. And given the increased weight of 160lbs for later models tells me there is some leeway should my calculated weight be off. 

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The A36 spends a fair amount of its extra useful load on the extra fuel it has to carry to go the same distance.  Practically speaking it can't really haul any more in the cabin than our J's. 

When I picked up my 78J the 84 A36 we flew home with was ~5kts faster. But only in smooth air!

The fifth and sixth seats on an A36 are just for show.

The panel only really needs ADSB, LPV and an autopilot. Everything else is mostly vanity.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Hank said:

That's fine. Many of us have zero ability to buy new.

But you did say that price wasn't a condition . . . .

Price is always a factor and I never said price wasn't a condition. I'm looking for the best all around value where I get a good airframe that will meet most of my needs with the best panel I can have.

Most of what I have seen on the market has been pretty old which includes aircraft through the 90s. I would like to modernize a panel and would much rather do it to an airframe that will retain most of it's value. I would not want to put 40/50k into a C, but would consider doing it to a J. New aircraft haven't been depreciated and I don't want to be the one absorbing the depreciation. 

Edited by chriman17
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For what it's worth, I think @chriman17 is going about this the right way. On the one hand it's impossible to get all your money back out of an upgrade. On the other hand, the longer you fly the plane, the closer you get to getting your money back and the less you care, because of the enjoyment extracted. The problem is, that as someone buying their first Mooney, is he going to be @Bob_Belville or @bonal and keep the plane forever, or is he gonna be @KLRDMD and buy and sell planes faster than JGarrison. Because that can make the difference in what you buy and how much you spend on it in upgrades.

I do believe though, that in the Mooney world, the closest thing to a sure investment, is a late model J. They are a special plane and there will never be any more of them.

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7 minutes ago, gsxrpilot said:

For what it's worth, I think @chriman17 is going about this the right way. On the one hand it's impossible to get all your money back out of an upgrade. On the other hand, the longer you fly the plane, the closer you get to getting your money back and the less you care, because of the enjoyment extracted. The problem is, that as someone buying their first Mooney, is he going to be @Bob_Belville or @bonal and keep the plane forever, or is he gonna be @KLRDMD and buy and sell planes faster than JGarrison. Because that can make the difference in what you buy and how much you spend on it in upgrades.

I do believe though, that in the Mooney world, the closest thing to a sure investment, is a late model J. They are a special plane and there will never be any more of them.

For what it's worth, I have a track record of never keeping anything longer than a couple of years. Easily bored and looking for something new. I'm hoping to get this right the first time and break that bad habit. It has cost me a lot of money over the years with sports cars and houses. 

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33 minutes ago, gsxrpilot said:

 or is he gonna be @KLRDMD and buy and sell planes faster than JGarrison.

If AZ had sales tax on aircraft the Dr would have supported a good chunk of highway road maintenance :)

The newer 205’s have always intrigued me. However, with the GW increase the climb performance really degrades on a warm day above 6k...

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Oh young Padiwan... - Yoda

Have no fear... if you buy a new airplane, it will depreciate quickly enough. :)

Do you have...

  • the house?
  • the wife?
  • the kids?
  • the car that will get you to work?

These things can get in the way of plane purchasing...

Now that you have revealed that you have the knowledge of buying and selling things...

What you are asking for... is the experience of the person GSXer pointed out...

Find the guy that buys and sells his planes as his mission changes every other year or so...

If you buy the top of the line, fully updated plane... there will always be a market for it...

Until something changes...

A new technology comes out...

or the economy stops growing at above the 2%/year increase...

A simple 20amu box that is a must have for somebody buying a top of the line plane...

The wheels fall off when the economy goes into contraction...

 

You have to sell the plane before that something changes... or incur the cost of the new technology... or wait for the recession to end...

 

Many people around here are buy and hold type of owners...

Each time there is a change of planes, there is a lot of cost and financial risk that gets assumed...

 

Some people’s finances are better than others... changing planes becomes simply easier with a few more AMUs...

 

All stuff you know... now, what are you going to do?

 

Can we help you define your mission?

Can we help you find a plane that Best fits your mission?

Can we guess the area of the country that you live in, based on similar questions of past visitors?  :)

 

Best regards,

-a-

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