Shadrach Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 Just now, jaylw314 said: Ahem. "...cakewalk in comparison". I fully acknowledge no emergency is an absolute cakewalk Neither situation presents a worst case off airport landing scenario. Your suggestion that a pilot would simply opt to dead stick rather than pull the chute is based on??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaylw314 Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 Just now, Shadrach said: Neither situation presents a worst case off airport landing scenario. Your suggestion that a pilot would simply opt to dead stick rather than pull the chute is based on??? ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRussell Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 23 minutes ago, Shadrach said: Just because you don’t see the distinction between an aircraft drifting in an uncontrolled 1700 ft./min descent and an aircraft being flown to the sight of the crash doesn’t mean there isn’t one. You may not be familiar with Cirrus training. The MO is topull the handle if something goes wrong. And acquaintance of mine had an engine failure in an SR22T while in cruise. He opted to dead stick (successfully) into a large airport almost directly below him. The Cirrus rep congratulated him on his airmanship but chastised him for not following SOP. Respectfully: To say I'm familiar with Cirrus training would be understatement, but you're again dodging my point for reasons I don't grasp. First, we are all here because we love the Mooney type, and this thread is about whether Mooney needs to offer BRS to survive much longer. I'm arguing it does because BRS offers a pilot more options, particularly at night and anytime over mountains, water, dense areas, and forests. "Pull Early, Pull Often" is indeed trained into the minds of Cirrus pilots now, because stats were showing (back around 2012) that Cirrus fatal accident rate was above average and in a majority of those fatals the BRS was not being used. The training initiative since then (Pull Early, Pull Often) is credited with bringing the Cirrus type back below the fatal average. You missed or deflected my point that in 84 BRS "saves," a Cirrus has yet to catch fire or hurt someone on the ground, and we all know a fully-fueled piston single entering a neighborhood or other crowded venue at 90mph represents an enormous destructive potential which becomes uncontrollable after it makes first contact with anything. In my argument, this gives the BRS-equipped aircraft a distinct advantage. You may have missed my point, but shoppers of piston singles have not. I think that part of the discussion is in the spirit of this thread's original question. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carusoam Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 1 hour ago, MRussell said: This scenario, while entirely plausible, only serves as an immaterial distraction .... MR, Have you met Tommy? Admirably, He has been on a mission to raise BRS awareness for a few years. There won’t be any changing of that tiger’s stripe... If the BRS system we’re to raise the safety level of a Mooney and/or its surrounding environment, call me interested. For everyone else, a reminder..., Wait long enough You will also hear about gun laws and the related mass murders that didn’t occur in Australia. Tommy has been away for a year. Australia has joined the world in publishing the weird things their population is also capable of... call that the baggage that comes along with these discussions... Things have changed in the ensuing year... glacially. One outstanding modern technology that is worth discussing with Tommy is the advent of airbag seatbelts... A technology that exists today, that can be installed in a Mooney, complete with paperwork... AND not far out on the affordability scale... No extensive modification of the airframe required beyond replacing the old seat belts and wiring in a pretty light control box... So... nothing wrong with discussing the BRS and what it takes to enable its abilities... the huge dissent rate, the cushioning that is required, and how the plane needs to make room for all the required hardware... when that is complete we can discuss the price and the repeat maintenance costs... It is good to keep everyone involved in the conversation... try to keep things aviation related... Try to not accidentally insult other people. Try to not bash the plane manufacturer that brings us together. Put in the extra typing strokes required to be understood, globally. See how deep you can fly this conversation to its inevitable landing site... This conversation has a history... let’s not accidentally repeat history. The good news... my memory is improving over the years. Welcome back, Tommy! Thank you and Best regards, -a- 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike_elliott Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 I have enjoyed reading the armchair CEO thoughts of this thread and would like to pose the following question: How many of you would buy a new Ultra Acclaim or Ovation today if it had BRS and only added 35K to the current list price? If the answer exceeds 30 "purchase orders", Ill go plead the case, no guarantees, just I will make a point of presenting the existing fleets' recommendation. Now I know a lot of you will say you couldnt afford it, needs a GW increase, hate the new paint scheme, it only has 2 doors, etc, but lets keep it on topic of a BRS makes it now a viable to you purchase. As a data point, 2 of the last 3 people I trained in the new Ultra's were in their early 30;s, not necessarily the old, 2 income no kids stereotype presented. All of the new Ultra owners were exposed to the Cirrus experience also. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadrach Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, MRussell said: Respectfully: To say I'm familiar with Cirrus training would be understatement, but you're again dodging my point for reasons I don't grasp. First, we are all here because we love the Mooney type, and this thread is about whether Mooney needs to offer BRS to survive much longer. I'm arguing it does because BRS offers a pilot more options, particularly at night and anytime over mountains, water, dense areas, and forests. "Pull Early, Pull Often" is indeed trained into the minds of Cirrus pilots now, because stats were showing (back around 2012) that Cirrus fatal accident rate was above average and in a majority of those fatals the BRS was not being used. The training initiative since then (Pull Early, Pull Often) is credited with bringing the Cirrus type back below the fatal average. You missed or deflected my point that in 84 BRS "saves," a Cirrus has yet to catch fire or hurt someone on the ground, and we all know a fully-fueled piston single entering a neighborhood or other crowded venue at 90mph represents an enormous destructive potential which becomes uncontrollable after it makes first contact with anything. In my argument, this gives the BRS-equipped aircraft a distinct advantage. You may have missed my point, but shoppers of piston singles have not. I think that part of the discussion is in the spirit of this thread's original question. The M20 airframe as certificated will likely never have BRS. It would require major changes to the airframe to work. You're indeed correct that Cirrus has the number one selling piston single and I am grateful that they have brought so many new faces to GA. Given you're familiarity with the make, do you know what percentage of Cirrus purchases are made by first time buyers? I've always thought a large percentage of their success was driven by marketing to affluent individuals who like the modern looks, the redundancy of a chute and the general lifestyle associated with the brand. You seem to be suggesting that Cirrus is stealing large swaths of existing customers from other brands. They may well be doing that and I just don't see it in the communities in which I am involved but then that is likely because I see almost no one buying brand new airplanes unless they are turbines. What about used? Are 15 year old Cirrus aircraft trading more often and at higher prices than similarly equipped Mooney, Beech and Piper products? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadrach Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 23 minutes ago, mike_elliott said: I have enjoyed reading the armchair CEO thoughts of this thread and would like to pose the following question: How many of you would buy a new Ultra Acclaim or Ovation today if it had BRS and only added 35K to the current list price? If the answer exceeds 30 "purchase orders", Ill go plead the case, no guarantees, just I will make a point of presenting the existing fleets' recommendation. Now I know a lot of you will say you couldnt afford it, needs a GW increase, hate the new paint scheme, it only has 2 doors, etc, but lets keep it on topic of a BRS makes it now a viable to you purchase. As a data point, 2 of the last 3 people I trained in the new Ultra's were in their early 30;s, not necessarily the old, 2 income no kids stereotype presented. All of the new Ultra owners were exposed to the Cirrus experience also. I like the Cirrus but I'm kind of apathetic regarding the chute. I would trade the BRS for retractable gear and a pressure vessel... I am also pretty conservative in my operations though it may not always appear that way to others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike_elliott Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, Shadrach said: I like the Cirrus but I'm kind of apathetic regarding the chute. I would trade the BRS for retractable gear and a pressure vessel... I am also pretty conservative in my operations though it may not always appear that way to others. Thats a "No", but a M600 will fill your bill, Ross Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadrach Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 1 minute ago, mike_elliott said: Thats a "No", but a M600 will fill your bill, Ross Not in the current budget! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smccray Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 33 minutes ago, mike_elliott said: How many of you would buy a new Ultra Acclaim or Ovation today if it had BRS and only added 35K to the current list price? Not your exact question, but if a BRS were available as a retrofit for my A36, I would write a $35K check today. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exM20K Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 (edited) 41 minutes ago, Shadrach said: What about used? Are 15 year old Cirrus aircraft trading more often and at higher prices than similarly equipped Mooney, Beech and Piper products? Base retail value and %change from new. Vref dealer version, default times, default condition. 2009 Beech G36: $485,000 / -23% 2009 SR22GTX: $375,000 / -29% 2010 SR22T: $430,000 / -29% (first year turbo) 2008 M20R: $290,000 / -39% (no 2009 listed in Vref) 2008 M20TN: $340,000 / -41% 2009 M20TN: $375,000 / -41% 2009 PA46: $640,000 / -46% (last year Avidyne?) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 Beech A36: $350,000 / -44% 2003 SR22: $170,000 / -45% 2003 M20R $210,000 / -45% 2003 M20M: $216,000 /-50% 2003 PA46: $515,000 / 45% Edited May 30, 2019 by exM20K 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCC Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 How many of you would buy a new Ultra Acclaim or Ovation today if it had BRS and only added 35K to the current list price? I would not, even at zero added cost because the chute isn’t a must-have feature for me. I’m more intrigued by the Mooneyshares program, but would prefer a 4- or 5-way partnership option and don’t see the value prop of the program over DIY partnering and ordering. I’d also be interested in seeing a factory pre-owned program similar to the Cirrus Pre-owned program. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carusoam Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 We are seeing an interesting GW opportunity lately... All the heavy nav equipment of decades earlier and the related BU vac systems... are making the weight trade-offs for a BRS more interesting... But... if we send Mike in to plead our case.... in front of the Board at Mooney... (my list of important Mooney want to haves...) Turbine, improved engine failure rate... airbag seatbelts, improved landing straight ahead outcomes... Cies fuel gauges, improved I’m only human mistake avoidance... good weather depiction on my color screens to avoid ice and thunderstorms... improved, advanced, i’m Only human, mistake avoidance... I will be first in line when the original owner sells... may take about 15 years based on my previous single M20R experience... -a- 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exM20K Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 53 minutes ago, carusoam said: We are seeing an interesting GW opportunity lately... All the heavy nav equipment of decades earlier and the related BU vac systems... are making the weight trade-offs for a BRS more interesting... But... if we send Mike in to plead our case.... in front of the Board at Mooney... (my list of important Mooney want to haves...) Turbine, improved engine failure rate... airbag seatbelts, improved landing straight ahead outcomes... Cies fuel gauges, improved I’m only human mistake avoidance... good weather depiction on my color screens to avoid ice and thunderstorms... improved, advanced, i’m Only human, mistake avoidance... I will be first in line when the original owner sells... may take about 15 years based on my previous single M20R experience... -a- The lithium aviation batteries would shave some 24-30 pounds off the BEW, but at least in the Acclaim, the dual batteries serve as a W&B band-aid to get the CG farther aft. https://www.truebluepowerusa.com/aviation-products/battery-STCs/ -dan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadrach Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 10 minutes ago, TCC said: I would not, even at zero added cost because the chute isn’t a must-have feature for me. I’m more intrigued by the Mooneyshares program, but would prefer a 4- or 5-way partnership option and don’t see the value prop of the program over DIY partnering and ordering. I’d also be interested in seeing a factory pre-owned program similar to the Cirrus Pre-owned program. I've always been curious as to why Mooney never offered a factory refurbish program. Perhaps it's liability. I have to think there's some economy of scale to be found in an interior modernization of heating, ventilation, cabin walls and panel (even using existing steam gauges) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadrach Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 57 minutes ago, carusoam said: We are seeing an interesting GW opportunity lately... All the heavy nav equipment of decades earlier and the related BU vac systems... are making the weight trade-offs for a BRS more interesting... But... if we send Mike in to plead our case.... in front of the Board at Mooney... (my list of important Mooney want to haves...) Turbine, improved engine failure rate... airbag seatbelts, improved landing straight ahead outcomes... Cies fuel gauges, improved I’m only human mistake avoidance... good weather depiction on my color screens to avoid ice and thunderstorms... improved, advanced, i’m Only human, mistake avoidance... I will be first in line when the original owner sells... may take about 15 years based on my previous single M20R experience... -a- Don't all models come with airbags as standard? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCC Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 I've always been curious as to why Mooney never offered a factory refurbish program. Perhaps it's liability. I have to think there's some economy of scale to be found in an interior modernization of heating, ventilation, cabin walls and panel (even using existing steam gauges) I’m not sure Ci refurbs their pre-owned planes. Depending on how deep one goes on the refurb, that’s pretty labor intensive. I’m wondering if the Ci model is taking in planes on trade at wholesale and then resell at market rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadrach Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 1 minute ago, TCC said: I’m not sure Ci refurbs their pre-owned planes. Depending on how deep one goes on the refurb, that’s pretty labor intensive. I’m wondering if the Ci model is taking in planes on trade at wholesale and then resell at market rate. It's the only plausible model Ci. As to a refurb, it would only make sense if it was modular. I've had mine out completely on one occasion. It takes about 4hrs to strip to bare cage and sheet metal. It's conceivable a modular interior could be done in a few days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johncuyle Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 3 hours ago, MRussell said: Respectfully: To say I'm familiar with Cirrus training would be understatement, but you're again dodging my point for reasons I don't grasp. First, we are all here because we love the Mooney type, and this thread is about whether Mooney needs to offer BRS to survive much longer. I'm arguing it does because BRS offers a pilot more options, particularly at night and anytime over mountains, water, dense areas, and forests. "Pull Early, Pull Often" is indeed trained into the minds of Cirrus pilots now, because stats were showing (back around 2012) that Cirrus fatal accident rate was above average and in a majority of those fatals the BRS was not being used. The training initiative since then (Pull Early, Pull Often) is credited with bringing the Cirrus type back below the fatal average. You missed or deflected my point that in 84 BRS "saves," a Cirrus has yet to catch fire or hurt someone on the ground, and we all know a fully-fueled piston single entering a neighborhood or other crowded venue at 90mph represents an enormous destructive potential which becomes uncontrollable after it makes first contact with anything. In my argument, this gives the BRS-equipped aircraft a distinct advantage. You may have missed my point, but shoppers of piston singles have not. I think that part of the discussion is in the spirit of this thread's original question. It does not need a BRS. It needs enough useful load (with TKS) to be able to carry two passengers (maybe three if they're FAA-compliant or an FAA-compliant couple and a pair of kids) a weekend's worth of luggage, and full fuel. The Cirrus can do that. The Mooney can't. As a result, Cirrus sells lots of airplanes and Mooney does not. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carusoam Posted May 30, 2019 Report Share Posted May 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Shadrach said: Don't all models come with airbags as standard? Fair question... Went to the website to find out... https://www.mooney.com/certified Can’t seem to find any details regarding standards or options related to the O... I did however find some fancy luggage... https://mooneyspeedshopm.merchorders.com/ Paper brochures I have from the Mooney Summit (2017)... indicate there is an option for two rear seat airbag seat belts... I can’t find anything related to the first ones having them as a standard... so they must be standard... Reading the brochures is interesting... makes you feel like you want to buy one. Best regards, -a- 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bradp Posted May 31, 2019 Report Share Posted May 31, 2019 My turn at armchair CEO I suppose. Mooney really hasn’t innovated since when, 1994? The current two door idea was born twenty years ago. The m10 project failed for the same reason that the idea of a three seat BRS equipped Mooney would fail - missing a seat and limiting potential marked to the ab initio training market dominated by piper and cirrus. If I were running that ship, I would pursue three paths. One. Retrofit Mooney program to keep the factory floor alive and make a profit in numbers. Two. BRS with weight saving program. Steel-> composite frame. Titanium LG. Engine mount. Redesign seats to helicopter G load design specs to acoomodate BRS load (no reason energy needs to dissipate via gear vs another structure). Three. RD for a clean sheet-ish design. Bring back the M 310 incorporating the composite engineering and tooling that they can salvage from the M10 program. Market pressurization and cabin class + all(ish) weather and BRS safety. A cirrus on steroids to cut into that transition between single piston and turbine/jet that cirrus has positioned themselves to. If I pointed to a single with pressurization/ Ac and BRS my wife might go for it. Position an AirFrame to be able to go turbine or single (both with BRS) to compete with the single biggest blunder in Mooney’s corporate history - losing the TBM. If it’s an idea from Mooney in the past 30 years it is unfortunately likely bound for failure. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadrach Posted May 31, 2019 Report Share Posted May 31, 2019 6 hours ago, exM20K said: Base retail value and %change from new. Vref dealer version, default times, default condition. 2009 Beech G36: $485,000 / -23% 2009 SR22GTX: $375,000 / -29% 2010 SR22T: $430,000 / -29% (first year turbo) 2008 M20R: $290,000 / -39% (no 2009 listed in Vref) 2008 M20TN: $340,000 / -41% 2009 M20TN: $375,000 / -41% 2009 PA46: $640,000 / -46% (last year Avidyne?) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 Beech A36: $350,000 / -44% 2003 SR22: $170,000 / -45% 2003 M20R $210,000 / -45% 2003 M20M: $216,000 /-50% 2003 PA46: $515,000 / 45% That might be the best analysis we have but it’s hard to know exact transaction price on both new and used aircraft. I was curious whether the market was discounting a Mooney over a similarly equipped Cirrus of the same year. That does not seem to be the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRussell Posted May 31, 2019 Report Share Posted May 31, 2019 7 hours ago, Shadrach said: That might be the best analysis we have but it’s hard to know exact transaction price on both new and used aircraft. I was curious whether the market was discounting a Mooney over a similarly equipped Cirrus of the same year. That does not seem to be the case. Agreed, from my own years of shopping. Old Ovations are generally at higher asking prices than old SR22s. I estimate maintenance to be a wash between the SR’s chute reserve ($1500/yr) and the tank reseals + retracts maintenance on the M20R. I suspect the apparent premium commanded by the Ovation is driven by low supply (especially for NDH) M20Rs on the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRussell Posted May 31, 2019 Report Share Posted May 31, 2019 12 hours ago, johncuyle said: It does not need a BRS. It needs enough useful load (with TKS) to be able to carry two passengers (maybe three if they're FAA-compliant or an FAA-compliant couple and a pair of kids) a weekend's worth of luggage, and full fuel. The Cirrus can do that. The Mooney can't. As a result, Cirrus sells lots of airplanes and Mooney does not. Your advocacy for more useful load is compelling (witness the success of the A36 and that the past two generations of SR22 have been legal 5-seaters after a 200-lb GW increase), I’m not sure how that valid point about payload cancels the market demand for BRS? From another angle, a lot of pilots advocate for TKS like it’s a potential lifesaver, but dismiss BRS in the same breath as if it’s not a potential lifesaver. That still confuses me. Passengers, on the other hand, while often not understanding the threat of icing, never fail to embrace the presence of BRS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbridges Posted May 31, 2019 Report Share Posted May 31, 2019 I'm not in the demographic being targeted by Cirrus or Mooney, so I'm on the outside looking in. I think the 2 door Mooney with the updated interior was necessary. Hypothetically, I think the BRS would help. Maybe make it an option on new models and not required since it's certified without it. In my extremely small world of aviation in central Georgia, I know one guy who bought an Ovation for speed; he needed something to get him to Mexico. On the flip side, I know two people that bought used Cirrus because their wives were nervous about flying, and the chute was a security blanket for them. Although a small sample, I think their is some universality. I really like the mooney design and mission, but I think they could benefit from something to make them more competitive. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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