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767 Down in Texas


Shadrach

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Upon closer examination of an unfiltered NEXRAD loop, you can see what is a secondary line of weak returns (marked by the yellow dashed line) that moves through and ahead of the line of convection.  This looks like the radar picked up the cold front as it pushed east-southeast.  Could be a coincidence, but this line of "frontal" returns likely reached the aircraft about the time it was in that steep descent.  The convective line falls apart pretty quickly once that passes through.  

NEXRAD-1807.thumb.png.24d4d43b16538c37d7c753a8cfc06e5f.png

Here is the loop...notice how that secondary line moves through the other returns.

 

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Just spoke with the Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston.  As I suspected, there wasn't a microburst signature evident - the accident and timing were too far away from the location where the plane went down. The only other weather-related explanation would be some significant turbulence during descent as the frontal boundary moved through the aircraft's flight path and caused the freight to shift.  

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1 minute ago, scottd said:

The only other weather-related explanation would be some significant turbulence during descent as the frontal boundary moved through the aircraft's flight path and caused the freight to shift.  

Exactly what I said, but only time will tell.

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  • 2 weeks later...

More info here:  https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/Pages/DCA19MA086.aspx

Specifically it says, "Also, about this time, the FDR data indicated that some small vertical accelerations consistent with the airplane entering turbulence. Shortly after, when the airplane’s indicated airspeed was steady about 230 knots, the engines increased to maximum thrust, and the airplane pitch increased to about 4° nose up. The airplane then pitched nose down over the next 18 seconds to about 49° in response to nose-down elevator deflection. The stall warning (stick shaker) did not activate."

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9 minutes ago, ragedracer1977 said:

Interestingly, the first draft this morning said "pitched nose down in response to control column input"

When I was reading it I was thinking it was starting to look like an intentional act.

 

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On ‎2‎/‎25‎/‎2019 at 3:21 PM, scottd said:

Upon closer examination of an unfiltered NEXRAD loop, you can see what is a secondary line of weak returns (marked by the yellow dashed line) that moves through and ahead of the line of convection.  This looks like the radar picked up the cold front as it pushed east-southeast.  Could be a coincidence, but this line of "frontal" returns likely reached the aircraft about the time it was in that steep descent.  The convective line falls apart pretty quickly once that passes through.  

Here is the loop...notice how that secondary line moves through the other returns.

 

I can see a similar formation going through the line of clouds to the southeast.  In fact, it looks almost identical.  Could there be two frontal margins like that?

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43 minutes ago, EricJ said:

When I was reading it I was thinking it was starting to look like an intentional act.

 

I'm hoping they changed it because they realized the same thing would be thought by a lot of people. 280kts everything stable.  Suddenly add full power, pitch up 4 degrees then immediately pitch down 50 degrees.  I'm not sure what to make of that

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