Future of Mooney

[231flyer]

Both Cirrus and Mooney are Chinese owned companies.  Cirrus is owned by AVIC-CAIGA a Chinese SOE (State Owned Enterprise) and Mooney by Henan Meijing Group (primarily Real estate and construction). Cirrus had its share of "near-death" encounters till it was bought by the Chinese Government and the Klapmeiers sent packing.  The Chinese gov't needed to infuse generous sums of money to bail out the company and the SF50 Visionjet program.  Their business model is far from profitable (see Diamond Aircraft for indicative financials including the DiamondJet saga).  Fortunately Cirrus is owned by the Chinese state and have ready access to "stay alive" or "zombie" capital.  The real estate market in China is in distress and defaults amongst large Property/Construction firms commonplace.   Its just a matter of time before HMG can no longer continue to support Mooney. I assume HMG started trying to unload Mooney right after they unloaded Vivek Saxena (CEO).  The future does not look promising despite our zealous affection for the brand.

As Richard Branson says; "the way to make a small fortune in aviation is to start with a really big one"

[Bravoman]

2 hours ago, peevee said:

people are allowed to have opinions you know. even if they don't match yours.

For what it’s worth, I did not view Clarence’s comment, which was  in response to my post, to be a jab at the US.  Just part of normal discourse about how Cuba got to be where it is and has been for a very long time.

[skydvrboy]

4 hours ago, bluehighwayflyer said:

I have never seen any Canada bashing whatsoever on this site.

I'll fix that for you!   

Canadians are so indecisive they actually named their country by drawing letters out of a Scrabble bag!  I pulled a "C" aye.  I got an "N" aye.  Mine's a "D" aye!  Hmm, CANADA?

[aviatoreb]

2 hours ago, glbtrottr said:

We used to enjoy debate in our culture. Now, people seem offended, insulted, triggered and disgusted with tremendous ease.
...
I could deem everything and anything political and offensive.

I used to be on facebook.  I used to post pictures of my family and dog, and activities on facebook, and my friends would hit like.  And I would hit like for them too.  In recent years facebook turned darker and everything became politics.  I mean I enjoy the political debate at a BBQ as much as the next guy, including people with opposing opinions.  Somehow friends of friends getting onto my facebook page and putting threatening and sexually suggestive threats statements about my children on fb sort of soured it for me.  Yes I didn't have adequately strong settings to prevent third parties...which I did later, but somehow I noticed people became keyboard warriors forgetting they were speaking to other people, trying out their experimentally extreme rants online they would never say in person.  I have closed my fb page middle of last year.  So did my wife.

This is the only forum I am involved in - and I feel like I gain a lot of aeronautical and equipment knowledge from all of you good people.  Including people with opposite political views.  I don't care what your politics are, but as the great Timothy thread of the past proved, once we go political, the aviation stops working.  

It is not like discussing politics at a BBQ when we do it on the internet.  It escalates in a way that real life face to face conversations don't as easily.  There are plenty of politics friendly discussion forums, but for the sake of preserving an aviation forum to speak about aviation, I think it is critical we keep it sterile, meaning stay away from politics absolutely and completely since a little leads to a lot and a lot WILL kill the forum.  I for one will no longer participate if that happens.  And I too of course have opinions but for the sake of following what I believe we must to preserve this aviation community, lets not.  I don't care to hear your opinions, and I will not share mine with you on here.  

Come to Potsdam and share a beer with me at my house and we can either agree or disagree politics, whatever the case may be, but on here,  it just does not work.  So lets not.  Please.

[peevee]

1 hour ago, 231flyer said:

Both Cirrus and Mooney are Chinese owned companies.  Cirrus is owned by AVIC-CAIGA a Chinese SOE (State Owned Enterprise) and Mooney by Henan Meijing Group (primarily Real estate and construction). Cirrus had its share of "near-death" encounters till it was bought by the Chinese Government and the Klapmeiers sent packing.  The Chinese gov't needed to infuse generous sums of money to bail out the company and the SF50 Visionjet program.  Their business model is far from profitable (see Diamond Aircraft for indicative financials including the DiamondJet saga).  Fortunately Cirrus is owned by the Chinese state and have ready access to "stay alive" or "zombie" capital.  The real estate market in China is in distress and defaults amongst large Property/Construction firms commonplace.   Its just a matter of time before HMG can no longer continue to support Mooney. I assume HMG started trying to unload Mooney right after they unloaded Vivek Saxena (CEO).  The future does not look promising despite our zealous affection for the brand.

As Richard Branson says; "the way to make a small fortune in aviation is to start with a really big one"

Sent them packing? In what universe? Dale didn't announce stepping down until 2 months ago and is leaving in the first half of 19.

Clearly the vision jet is troubled, they've already released v2. Call and see how many years you have to wait to buy one. They're literally selling them faster than they can build them.

Yet Mooney plugs along with the same old product wondering why people don't want to buy a 50 year old design for nearly a million dollars. Cirrus has sold 7,000 airplanes in 19 years....

 

I had hoped the new models from Mooney were going to be a new leaf, then they cancelled them.

Edited February 26, 2019 by peevee

[exM20K]

3 minutes ago, peevee said:

Sent them packing? In what universe? Dale didn't step down until 2 months ago.

Clearly the vision jet is troubled, they've already released v2. Call and see how many years you have to wait to buy one. They're literally selling them faster than they can build them.

Yet Mooney plugs along with the same old product wondering why people don't want to buy a 50 year old design for nearly a million dollars.

I don’t think the V2 release is a sign of strength. Quite the opposite: the company was  contractually bound to deliver 500 airframes at $1.3 million plus escalators. That worked out to about $1.5 million. I am very familiar with the economics of a single engine jet, having lived through the D jet saga, and it does not take a very sharp pencil to conclude that they were likely losing money on every example going out the door at $1.5 million. 

 The version to chat is a couple of very marginal changes to the airframe and a $1 million boost in price. The contract for the serous chat stipulates that the company is obligated to deliver whatever the current production model is. While this is likely a disappointment for position holders who believed that they had $1 million of equity sitting on the table, my guess is the company did this because they had to.  To continue delivering the balance of 400+ airframes at a loss would be more than even their Chinese  owners could absorb 

[steingar]

Yup, Mooney and Cirrus are Chinese owned.  Piper is owned by a company from Brunei.  Foreigners with stars in their eyes.  Can Mooney keep the lights on selling a dozen airplanes a year? I doubt it.  Yeah Cirrus sells a lot more, unsurprisingly.  It can fly nearly as fast as the Mooney with the gear welded down.  Who doesn't like that?  And the parachute. Who's wife wouldn't want that?

Can Mooney turn things around and sell more airplanes?  I have strong doubts.  That whole handmaid thing doesn't lend itself too well to economy of scale.  A real shame too, they've been in the game a long time and make a fine airplane.  But the market has spoken.

Actually, I think it really is the chute.  The Lanceair was made from composites, just as fast as the Cirrus and had the gear welded down.  The biggest difference between the lancer and the Cirrus is the parachute.  And that Lanceair got driven out of business by some phenomenal bad luck. 

Edited February 27, 2019 by steingar

[David_H]

Suppliers such as Lycoming, Continental, Garmin, BK, ....etc. were allowed to turn the aviation market into a boutique operation. Evidence of this can be seen by observing at what a panel mounted GPS costs to purchase and install.

Produced quantities are artificially stymied by keeping component costs high.

Edited February 26, 2019 by David_H

[231flyer]

Peevee, In most business you don't get paid till you deliver your product.  Ask Boeing (787) or Airbus (380) about their financial woes due to delivery issues.  Cirrus is trying to get beyond the 60 SF50 jets a year rate.....basically they are still delivering one jet a week. The V2 upgrade is to get RVSM altitudes, Auto throttles,  and slightly faster speeds.   Btw Alan's contract as Chairman was not renewed in 2009(so sent packing).  Dale was ceremonial CEO/President/Consultant/Advisor/Nutured starting 2011(google to learn of his trials).  Alan announced major economic difficulties in 2008 and furloughed over 200 employees.  The Cirrus story has almost as many twists and turns as Mooney. Its difficult building an aircraft company.  Eclipse spent $1.3B built 256 jets and has gone bankrupt yet again (Alan).  Three of four VLJ manufacturers (Eclipse, Piper, Diamond) had to abandon their jets.  Cirrus took a major hit and delay getting the SF50 to market. Cirrus could not make it as a standalone company thus the sale to the Chinese Government!  Their model is as flawed as the others.....they just happen to have a sugardaddy now!

[bonal]

The biggest problem is the decrease in pilot population. The aviation community is always complaining of this but all they do is preach to the choir. Sure there are all kinds of events like young eagles but it's always tied to an aviation event.  The manufacturers need to get together and start a campaign to put the notion of aviation into the public. Start advertising aviation on non aviation events all kinds of opportunity there. Get people interested in flying that we're not before. When was the last time you saw an ad about flying in a non aviation publication or sports event broadcast.

[glbtrottr]

So if mooney sold 28 airplanes versus 14 they’d be ecstatic.

14.

Do you think I want to throw $25m out of my billion to bring in robotics to mooney so that an aircraft company that generates about $12m a year makes $20 if I adjust my pricing?

A sunk cost is a sunk cost. The mooney burn rate is insane per copy. Look at EBIDTA. The juice to retool isn’t worth the squeeze and mooney isn’t doing anything to raise demand.

Im glad you bring up Icon. I’m pretty comfortable with their approach, business model and challenges - selling a Rotax 912 powered bird, 2 seater, non ifr, garmin 796 equipped copy that went for $189 and now goes for $350 may net you a few more sales, but not many. 44 i believe. No robotics, hand painted, built in Mexico, previously by cirrus, now in Vacaville ...

Mooney can’t solve aviation’s low pilot numbers.

But they can fix their marketing.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Davidv]

51 minutes ago, Hyett6420 said:

I've looked at this in nth detail before, spoken to their marketing chaps, given them steers but to no avail.  There are a number of basic problems, some already mentioned.

1. You have a declining market, there are less pilots now than there were in the 70s-80s
2. You have a major competitor who sells a plane the same way you buy a car (Cirrus)
3. Cost of production is high, but with someone saying ill invest $25million and happy to potentially lose it it can be fixed. which when you are a billionaire is not much at all.
4. Marketing is targeting totally incorrectly.

So fixes:-

1. You increase the size of the market by targeting Jim, Joe and everyone else, you make it a lifestyle brand.  Pictures of plane with kids going camping etc, just like they do with cars.  Forget the existing Pilots, make NEW ones!  If Ikon can do it so can Mooney.
2. Copy that technique and do it in spades, also look at the car industry, how do THEY sell?, an example could be... in Europe no-one buys a car we lease them so the car manufacturer moves units, the finance company makes interest and everyone is happy.  £1000 down, 5 year monthly payments and a guaranteed residual value when you hand it back, which buys your next car, etc.  Self perpetuating.
3. It was at British Leyland with the Mini too, hand built, cost a bloody fortune to produce, now BMW have invested and one mini is produced every 5 hours.  Man hours involved about 200, See below, all of the production is by Robot, anything can be done by robot where it is the same every time it just takes investment.  Robots are a damn sight cheaper than humans. Hire CAR production people to show you how to do this.
4.  You look at your strengths and market them better, Yes Mooneys are fast, but that doesnt sell to "her indoors", but the safety cage does, the same way the parachute in Cirrus does. (stats show the parachute would not save 80% of GA accidents as they happen too low).  So team up with the likes of Volvo and sell Safety Cages, Amsafe airbags, auto recovery A/Ps (blue button), "possibly the safest light plane in the world" (aka Calsburg and their beer adverts), As above hire car production people.  Old Audi Adverts are perfect examples of how to take a dead brand and make it alive again.
5. Extras:- Run adverts on billboards all over traffic hotspots at holiday weekends, showing a Mooney overflying the traffic saying "in your Mooney you would be there by now",  Make sure that every aviation advert where there is a Cirrus shown as an example of a plane, has a Mooney instead.  

• - Stamping components - Robotics
• - Body parts soldering - Robotics
• - Painting - Robotics
• - Final assembly - Man power (fender fronts for example)
• - Testing - Man Power
• - Final inspection - Man power
• - Shipping - Man power

This is NOT rocket science but it DOES mean that the management need to grasp the marketing side with both hands and turn it on its head, this will drive some increase in sales, then the investment can come in.

 

 

So you’re saying that putting “a new Mooney is probably already on your radar screen” as welcome message on your home page isn’t the best marketing to non pilots?

[bonal]

3 minutes ago, glbtrottr said:

So if mooney sold 28 airplanes versus 14 they’d be ecstatic.

14.

Do you think I want to throw $25m out of my billion to bring in robotics to mooney so that an aircraft company that generates about $12m a year makes $20 if I adjust my pricing?

A sunk cost is a sunk cost. The mooney burn rate is insane per copy. Look at EBIDTA. The juice to retool isn’t worth the squeeze and mooney isn’t doing anything to raise demand.

Im glad you bring up Icon. I’m pretty comfortable with their approach, business model and challenges - selling a Rotax 912 powered bird, 2 seater, non ifr, garmin 796 equipped copy that went for $189 and now goes for $350 may net you a few more sales, but not many. 44 i believe. No robotics, hand painted, built in Mexico, previously by cirrus, now in Vacaville ...

Mooney can’t solve aviation’s low pilot numbers.

But they can fix their marketing.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I never said Mooney needed to do this I said the manufacturers all need to get together and do this and not just airplane manufacturers but all companies that are making products that go into aviation. Also organizations such as EAA and AOPA need to get out of the church and start preaching to the masses.

[David_H]

A Mooney is a Pilots airplane. It always has been and likely always will be.

Until Mooney is able to bring pricing down to the point that pilots can afford to purchase one... the sales story will remain the same.

The story also remains the same for many aspiring student pilots: They have to at some point ask themselves if going through training is really worthwhile if they're not going to be able to afford to purchase a plane to fly.

Edited February 27, 2019 by David_H
Grammar

[1964-M20E]

I've stated this before.  All brands C, B, P and M etc.  need to get together and make a factory or factories that make component parts, wings, control surfaces fuselage etc.  The s factories can then specialize and make hundreds of parts instead of 10s of parts.  One such factory could specialize in metal bending and riveting doing air-frame parts for all brand relaying heavily on robots to do most of the rivets.  Another tubular steel parts. etc.  Then pass the savings to the consumer to sell a larger quantity of planes.  IMHO that is the only way the manufacturers can survive and thrive.

[steingar]

I've never heard of automating aluminum assembly.  You can automate welds, stamp steel, but I don't think any of that works with aluminum.  Cessna and Beechcraft are both divisions of Textron, which I think has forgotten more about robotics than most companies have discovered.  Yet robots assemble neither sets of airframes and probably never will.  I think you can automate friction stir welding and I think it even works on aluminum, but Eclipse was the only one to use that on airframes and it didn't keep costs down.  And the use of friction stir welding is going to take cash, lots of it.  You need to invest in the equipment, which I suspect doesn't come cheap.  And you have certification concerns.  My guess is if you want to use that kind of technology you're going to have to design the airplane around it.

[shorrick mk2]

Robots are now quite commonly used in airframe and wing assembly. Check out Boeing's Panel Assembly Line and Fuselage Automated Upright Build gadgets. The planes they work on have not been redesigned - the tech has been built up to fit the existing certified design.

[Igor_U]

5 hours ago, shorrick mk2 said:

Robots are now quite commonly used in airframe and wing assembly. Check out Boeing's Panel Assembly Line and Fuselage Automated Upright Build gadgets. The planes they work on have not been redesigned - the tech has been built up to fit the existing certified design.

That is all true but if you think B737Max hasn't been upgraded for manufacturing and assembly from the old 1960's 37, you are mistaken. They brought that production to perfection and building 52 (going to 57) a month, more then Mooney in last 10 years! And they make profit on each of them even with more then 50% discounted price you see on their website.

And FAUB is just a small process in 777 assembly that saves Boeing labor but doesn't affect a full cost of a plane by any large percentage. not to mention problems they have incorporating it.

Having said that, a lot of components are manufactured with manual labor, just done at Tier 2 suppliers like you never see them... Renton plant is one very efficient final assy with no manufacturing and they pushed them out like Toyota Corollas...

Mooney, and all other piston GA manufactures together have no capacity to sink money into automation and can't except any benefits due to volumes. Not to mention you can't do much Value engineering with existing design and new certified plane development would cost too much.

Even, noncertified... where are all those "under $100k" LSAs promised years ago?? Does anyone really believes Icon will be profitable after a decade of developing I5?

You are all for rude awakening then.

Sad part is that Cirrus, as bestselling company, never really made money on a long run, hence a sale to Chinese investors, so what are the chances of others? I'm sorry to break this to you but (piston) GA is just slowly dying and Mooney (and others) is heading through another (is it 8th or more?) bankruptcy.

 

So, in the mean time we can maintain and upgrade our airframes and hope part would be available for a while...

Good luck

[carusoam]

Where did the enjoyment and fun go?

I have worked in factories for decades... some completely automated, some completely hand assembled parts and machines...

My first factory I saw was rows of lathes and men turning out a lot of near perfect, but not perfect Teflon parts...similar to a college I visited as a kid... Mechanical engineers really loved 1940s left over lathes.... ?

When I visited the same factory about five years later... there were a few CNC machines in place of those 30 people... turning out perfect copies... automation on every level is expected for a company to survive...

Early on, my dad called me from I giant outdoor fair, the topsfield fair in Mass... he told me about the Cirrus that was on display... amongst the great mass of people, not pilots... not at an airport... dad hadn’t seen a GA plane like that... he probably had an AT&T portable bag phone...  

 

At the peak of my career, I was selling Million dollar machines, to various types of people... you never know who has a Million to spend on any one machine...

It really helps to know your machine, and your customer, and everything else that goes with that... our brochures were terrible... they talked about metals, and controls... Great if your customers are machine builders... our customers were machine users... not a single picture of all the product that was made on our machines... or how many of these products were made each minute...

My favorite customers flew their corporate planes... a Citation, a jet commander, and a Mooney...

Now if you want to have some fun...

You have a whole second page of AOPA magazine... you are the marketing guy... you have two planes... what are YOU going to put on that page..?

You get 12 different times a year to take a whack at this challenge...  what would be in the pictures of those 12 different layouts...

• The least important part of the message is your mailing address... 
• Speed, efficiency and safety are what you are known for already...
• Bonal has covered what MSers are known to do in the today’s flight thread...

 

• Jan: Where did you take your Long Body skiing (the pilot is a pro, a 737 in the back ground)
• February: Where did you take your long body to get away from the cold (the pilot is an engineer, with snowboards in the back)
• March: There’s some Madness thing going on around here... a shot of the flight plan on the instrument panel and a basketball arena in the background...  (the pilots... a couple of highly paid CFIs sharing expenses)
• April: Easter with the family, load up the back seats... and baggage compartment to the gills... (the pilot... a family woman with her man flying right seat...and kids all dressed up for the holiday dinner)
• May:  Who’s flying to Indy? With your business suit slung over your back... and an M20C in the background...
• June: How about some F1 in Montréal? A single seat, Mite next to the LB...
• July: Flying over a beach in NJ... on the way to Greenland, Iceland, Ireland... to visit MSers in Europe... a Pic of the G1000 screen with a Mooney in the middle of the big isles.... 
• August: Maine has some great outdoors and lobster... next to a turf field...
• September: Dispell a Mooney Myth... in California... how big people actually fly Mooneys...
• October: Show Some Mooney performance... in Kansas... with women owned and flown machines...
• November: Anyone deep fry a Turkey at a Mooney Fly-in?  Where is Bryan, Mexico? 
• December: How about a Long Body, fully loaded, flying to see grandma and pa? Or Grandma flying Grandpa  to see their grandchildren... I know an MSer...

Jan 2020... a picture taken around the San Juan Islands... Big fat Orcas playing in the sea... next to a picture of  a Clorox bottle nosed plane with a similar black and white paint scheme...   somebody caught one in the T/O attitude... Nice tail?  Note the similarities...

... ... Style by Nature...

 

Discuss your lifestyle, your hardware, how you use your Mooney...

Skip how the plane is made... nobody cares... they expect you to design it right. Build it right. Deliver it as promised with the highest level of quality... the important stuff to pilots...

Now, back to being pilots... let the manufacturing guys do their thing... let the current owners keep going on...

The most important thing would be having all the current owners say something nice about the company, the product, the service, the lifestyle... of a Mooney Pilot!

Who would want to join this owner’s club if every thread was a long drawn out complaint...

Fortunately, most threads around here are much more enjoyable to read...  

Marketing and sales for million dollar machines is an enjoyable job... trade shows are a blast... somebody has to work really hard to get those machines there and set-up properly...

Help me Plan to break some stereotypes...  I probably have a few accidently in my list... like old machines, i’m happy to be Imperfect...

Best regards,

-a-

[shorrick mk2]

@Igor_U my point was that you don't need to recertify or redesign an airplane to incorporate automation, you can train / design the robot around it. As to the "no cost savings" part, both A and B financials show otherwise. Sure Renton is an assembly plant, but do you think the subcontractors all sit around milling parts by hand in a sweatshop? Sure, B had 60 years to improve the 737 production line practices... but so have the other guys.

As to your volume & profitability exception for low rate productiion runs, have a look at Ferrari volumes & profitability pre and post product line automation... you'll be surprised.

Don't be mislead into thinking that low volume plane sales is due to lack of people not having enough $$$ to spend.

[Bravoman]

I just saw the GAMA numbers posted on the Beech forum and wish I knew how to repost it here. Mooney’s Billings for all of last year were about 10 mil for the 14 aircraft it sold. Cirrus sold well over 400 planes factoring in their jet.

 

The pilot population is on the uptick due to the demand for ATPs. Unfortunately these new pilots for the most part won’t be buying general aviation aircraft for some  time. I truly believed and still do that the only way Mooney could have done it was to have a trainer to tap into this market, flight schools, university programs, etc. This would also have the secondary benefit of putting the brand out there as the step up  oncept is very important for  getting repeat customers. I always had Pipers because I learned to fly in a traumahawk.

[David_H]

Clever Marketing isn't going to fix the problems.

 

Edited February 28, 2019 by David_H

[mike_elliott]

9 hours ago, carusoam said:

highly paid CFIs

HUH? That doesnt exist Anthony

 

[carusoam]

Intelligent marketing strategies sell machines...

Nothing clever about it.

The sales prevention team seams to be awfully strong today...

Problems?  What problems?  

Businesses have challenges...

 

One of the strongest sales techniques...

Get a ride in a Mooney...

MSers come in two categories....

• Speed and efficiency....
• Speed...

The difference... one of them can buy a set of cylinders at a discount.... the other is going to use the same cylinders all the way to TBO...

Get a ride in a Screamin’ Eagle, or Standing O...  off the ground in 800’ climbing out with the VSI pegged at the top of the instrument....

Climb quickly into the smooth air above...

Do a long Xcountry demonstrating the best fuel mileage available...   Adjust a few knobs, you are now demonstrating the fastest factory built, NA plane, on or off the planet....  No O2 required...

For the ultimate Mooney ride... get the 310hp Acclaim, in 10 minutes from T/O, you are climbing through the FLs... cruising the entire East Coast in a day... just business as usual... would you like AC with that? 

 

 

Mike, my favorite local NJMP CFII/MSer.... flew a Screamin’ Eagle... He may have had a few other jobs as well.... 

 

PP thoughts only, my glass may be half full at most times....

Best regards,

-a-

[Culver LFA]

On 2/22/2019 at 12:00 PM, ArtVandelay said:

Latest GAMA report is out: in 2018, only 14 Mooneys.
P, C, and Ci were much higher.


Tom

With Cirrus SR series at 380 sold and the Icon A5 selling 44, Mooney needs to look long and hard at their production and marketing techniques if they want to produce/sell more aircraft.

Strong marketing sells an amphibious flying jet ski for big bucks. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to have one too but for fun, not for traveling around the country.  I’d be willing to bet there are a few A5 owners that also have a Cirrus as both are doing a great job selling their product and reaching outside the normal airplane publications to draw new people in.