Jump to content

The ultimate Getthereitis?


Recommended Posts

This story appeared in the local paper. Anybody with access to a local radar picture would have known to stay clear away from this.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/palm-beach/fl-ne-plane-down-off-palm-beach-coast-20190201-story.html


Overlay the weather if not already displayed and look at the fluctuations on the track log. As stated in the article, it must have been a terrorizing ride - and so avoidable.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N3016L

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Compare the vertical speeds at the end of this flight....

To the recent Houston tragedy....

variations in vertical velocity from plus a lot to minus a lot...

variations in horizontal speed are also quite large...

 

Reminder...

Flying into thunderstorms is a GA disaster waiting to happen... As is flying into ice...or anything else that leads to uncontrolled +/- 1kfpm attitude/vertical speed changes...

Adhering to maneuvering speed is a good way of maintaining control of the plane in uncontrolled weather...

Aviation 102 lessons for the advanced pilot...

 

Sad to see the loss of life in these cases. Makes them a lesson to remember...

Best regards,

-a-

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RIP to the pilot.

Excellent points -a-

I would love to know what the pilot was thinking and what he had in the cockpit with him that led him to believe he could thread that needle.  Sometimes our tools make us think we are invincible and it's a piece of cake to make it through weather like this.  Nine out of ten times he might make it through the bumps, but that 10th time may just bite a little harder...

If he really had to be there, why not just take a more southern route to get around the big nasty's?  Adds what, 30-45 minutes to the flight?  So sad...

Brian

Edited by flight2000
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, flyboy0681 said:

This story appeared in the local paper. Anybody with access to a local radar picture would have known to stay clear away from this.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/palm-beach/fl-ne-plane-down-off-palm-beach-coast-20190201-story.html


Overlay the weather if not already displayed and look at the fluctuations on the track log. As stated in the article, it must have been a terrorizing ride - and so avoidable.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N3016L

 

<sigh>... another one... totally unnecessary... all it takes is some planning and a solid and objective go/no-go decision making process.  

I can almost hear the rationalization... “I’ve done it before...”... “the forecasts are always worse than the actual weather.”....”all I have to do is get above it”....”I know it’s clear 30 miles to the (pick a direction)”.... “this (pick a system) can get me through anything”....  

sad.... Mother Nature... icing, thunder storms, wind shear... don’t care what you pilot, or how experienced you are... and she doesn’t give second chances (often).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It happens all the time everywhere

We had a father and his 2 small kids here one night and he asked the kids what to do and they wanted to go home to SLC. Dark night, 100% cloud cover, mountain tops covered with clouds and snow. No ground lights what so ever. They left in a 172 at 9PM and didn't make 1 hr before it ended tragically. 

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, cliffy said:

It happens all the time everywhere

We had a father and his 2 small kids here one night and he asked the kids what to do and they wanted to go home to SLC. Dark night, 100% cloud cover, mountain tops covered with clouds and snow. No ground lights what so ever. They left in a 172 at 9PM and didn't make 1 hr before it ended tragically. 

A man’s got to know his limits....

 

or... as a good friend of mine once said to me... if you absolutely have no time table to keep whatsoever: travel by GA.  That will keep you out of trouble.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, flyboy0681 said:

This story appeared in the local paper. Anybody with access to a local radar picture would have known to stay clear away from this.

 

Perhaps, but based on the thousands of pilots I've trained over the last 20 years, there's a lot more to the story when you dig deep.  In this case there were thunderstorms in the area.

Here's the 17Z observation:

KPBI 011653Z 12003KT BKN045 BKN060 21/20 A3021 RMK AO2 RAE40 SLP229 CB E-SE MOV N CB DSNT S P0001 T02060200 

And the 18Z observation:

KPBI 011822Z 00000KT RA BR SCT012  BKN041 21/20 A3017 RMK AO2 CB OHD-NE-E MOV N CB DSNT NE SE P0006 T02110200 

Here's the TAF for nearby PBI - 

KPBI 011459Z 0115/0212 VCSH SCT025  
      TEMPO 0115/0117 SHRA  
     FM012200 07008KT VCSH SCT020 BKN050 
     FM020400 11010KT SCT020 BKN070 

I wish this pilot had attended my most recent webinar.  The TAF above clearly illustrates the dangers he was facing - but few pilots know how to interpret this (and no, it's not about decoding the TAF, but understanding the threats clearly depicted.  

I wish that more pilots would read the AFD...it has so much good info most of the time...it clearly indicates the potential for embedded convection.

.AVIATION...
Convection associated with a weak frontal boundary meandering
across South Florida's Atlantic waters will continue to create
periods of sub-VFR conditions
over the next day or so. PBI is the
terminal most likely to be impacted this afternoon with MVFR or 
brief bouts of IFR/LIFR conditions possible. Low cigs/fog is
possible overnight, mainly in SW Florida and over the interior,
which will possible affect APF into Saturday morning. Additional
convection on Saturday could again create sub-VFR conditions
mainly along the east coast.
 

1815Z.thumb.png.1d972d080276110b489475882d71d6f3.png  

The route was on the southern edge of a convective outlook area, but there wasn't a convective SIGMET issued because the convection did NOT meet SIGMET criteria.  

20190201_1800_sigmet_cb.gif.e76109ba0af7ba2fa2dfab12cf40b4c3.gif

The news story said he flew into a severe thunderstorm. There wasn't a severe thunderstorm in this area.  Ugh!   

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, scottd said:

Perhaps, but based on the thousands of pilots I've trained over the last 20 years, there's a lot more to the story when you dig deep.  In this case there were thunderstorms in the area.

Here's the 17Z observation:


KPBI 011653Z 12003KT BKN045 BKN060 21/20 A3021 RMK AO2 RAE40 SLP229 CB E-SE MOV N CB DSNT S P0001 T02060200 

And the 18Z observation:


KPBI 011822Z 00000KT RA BR SCT012  BKN041 21/20 A3017 RMK AO2 CB OHD-NE-E MOV N CB DSNT NE SE P0006 T02110200 

Here's the TAF for nearby PBI - 


KPBI 011459Z 0115/0212 VCSH SCT025  
      TEMPO 0115/0117 SHRA  
     FM012200 07008KT VCSH SCT020 BKN050 
     FM020400 11010KT SCT020 BKN070 

I wish this pilot had attended my most recent webinar.  The TAF above clearly illustrates the dangers he was facing - but few pilots know how to interpret this (and no, it's not about decoding the TAF, but understanding the threats clearly depicted.  

I wish that more pilots would read the AFD...it has so much good info most of the time...it clearly indicates the potential for embedded convection.

.AVIATION...
Convection associated with a weak frontal boundary meandering
across South Florida's Atlantic waters will continue to create
periods of sub-VFR conditions
over the next day or so. PBI is the
terminal most likely to be impacted this afternoon with MVFR or 
brief bouts of IFR/LIFR conditions possible. Low cigs/fog is
possible overnight, mainly in SW Florida and over the interior,
which will possible affect APF into Saturday morning. Additional
convection on Saturday could again create sub-VFR conditions
mainly along the east coast.
 

1815Z.thumb.png.1d972d080276110b489475882d71d6f3.png  

The route was on the southern edge of a convective outlook area, but there wasn't a convective SIGMET issued because the convection did NOT meet SIGMET criteria.  

20190201_1800_sigmet_cb.gif.e76109ba0af7ba2fa2dfab12cf40b4c3.gif

The news story said he flew into a severe thunderstorm. There wasn't a severe thunderstorm in this area.  Ugh!   

 

I see one major possible cause here.... reading alone doesn’t necessarily paint the picture.

how many people use their EFB alone as their “weather brief”?  I’ve seen it on you tube videos... people have stated so much on this website... and I’ve been guilty of it too...

but when real weather is out there.  Storms, layers.. pretty much anything that is painted on a radar... a pilot *NEEDS* to talk to a weather briefer.  Some do. Some don’t.  But they all should (myself included).  Because the TAF’s alone, and radar picture alone don’t REALLY paint the total picture. 

To think any of us can make an objective decision without the total picture... it’s short sighted at the very least. Complacent and arrogant at the worst.

*****I personally don’t know if this pilot did or did not call for a weather brief... just a suspicion... this rant is more due to some of the things I’ve subjectively noticed on beechtalk, YouTube, here.. other pilot internet sources... seems like pilots don’t seem to value a real briefer much anymore... had too many friends fall to preventable mishaps in aviation... don’t want to see any others.  Especially in GA- where this is supposed to be FUN! and safe.********

Edited by M016576
Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, scottd said:

The route was on the southern edge of a convective outlook area, but there wasn't a convective SIGMET issued because the convection did NOT meet SIGMET criteria.  

The news story said he flew into a severe thunderstorm. There wasn't a severe thunderstorm in this area.  Ugh!   

 

I live south of airport of departure and it was just a miserable day, and at least in my area, it consisted of low ceilings and isolated thunderstorms.  I live under one of the segments for the GPS 5 approach into Boca Raton and heard jets overhead all day, which was unusual because most of the time they don't come anywhere near me as they are  vectored directly to the field for the visual. While there may not have been a SIGMET issued, it doesn't mean that there wasn't isolated weather in the area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, flight2000 said:

If he really had to be there, why not just take a more southern route to get around the big nasty's?  Adds what, 30-45 minutes to the flight?  So sad...

 

Going south would get you closer to the front line.    I have a rule about not flying through front lines.   Going Northwest and up around the top would be about the only route to go if you you thought it was a good idea to fly that day.

 

Edited by Yetti
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/2/2019 at 10:53 PM, M016576 said:

I see one major possible cause here.... reading alone doesn’t necessarily paint the picture.

how many people use their EFB alone as their “weather brief”?  I’ve seen it on you tube videos... people have stated so much on this website... and I’ve been guilty of it too...

but when real weather is out there.  Storms, layers.. pretty much anything that is painted on a radar... a pilot *NEEDS* to talk to a weather briefer.  Some do. Some don’t.  But they all should (myself included).  Because the TAF’s alone, and radar picture alone don’t REALLY paint the total picture. 

To think any of us can make an objective decision without the total picture... it’s short sighted at the very least. Complacent and arrogant at the worst.

*****I personally don’t know if this pilot did or did not call for a weather brief... just a suspicion... this rant is more due to some of the things I’ve subjectively noticed on beechtalk, YouTube, here.. other pilot internet sources... seems like pilots don’t seem to value a real briefer much anymore... had too many friends fall to preventable mishaps in aviation... don’t want to see any others.  Especially in GA- where this is supposed to be FUN! and safe.********

I agree that the big picture is the most important.  I make most of my decisions to go or stay based on that big picture, not the details.  

I don't talk to a briefer any more except to get NOTAMs or file a PIREP or flight plan.  Primarily because they don't provide (or are allowed to provide) some of the higher temporal and spatial resolution tools that are now available and have been for over a decade.  They basically stick to a script (defined in AC 00-45H Change 1) which works very well when the weather is extremely challenging (no fool would launch) or extremely benign (even the most junior pilot would launch).  It's that "in between" weather scenario where I've seen a briefer provide less than stellar information.  In the end, it comes down to understanding how the forecasts and observations should be interpreted.  What does SHRA (rain showers) really mean if the visibility is 5 statute miles?  Does that WS020/18045KT (non-convective LLWS) mean a really bad ride for my early morning flight?  The briefer isn't going to tell you that...in fact, in my experience they are more likely interpret it the wrong way.   

There's no harm to call a briefer.  Just be aware, there are open manholes in that briefing.  When I do one-on-one training with a student for a trip that he or she is about to take, I often take about an hour.  Most telephone briefings are typically less than 10 minutes (maybe 15).  That's simply not enough time to get a true sense of all of the factors that should play into your decision.  Plus, the briefing is a very single threaded approach.  You provide a departure time (and other stuff) and then you get flooded with weather data.  Instead, I like to look at all possible departures over the next few days and see which time gives me the best opportunity to minimize my exposure to adverse weather.  Once I have that time (assuming it fits in my schedule), then I drill down to understand the details.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/2/2019 at 11:23 PM, flyboy0681 said:

While there may not have been a SIGMET issued, it doesn't mean that there wasn't isolated weather in the area.

That's a good point and the reason I mentioned it.  Too many pilots (and briefers) tend to overlook that.  Understanding the criteria for when a convective SIGMET is issued is critical.  There doesn't have to be a convective SIGMET for an area of convection to be extremely dangerous.  Plus there were a ton of other clues in that TAF pilots need to learn how to interpret.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Yetti said:

Going south would get you closer to the front line.    I have a rule about not flying through front lines.   Going Northwest and up around the top would be about the only route to go if you you thought it was a good idea to fly that day.

 

I agree, I was just surface deep looking at the wx picture shown on the Flightaware track.  Didn't see where the frontal line was.  Was this storm a fast mover where waiting a bit would have helped and then he could have proceeded without any issues? 

Brian

Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, flight2000 said:

I agree, I was just surface deep looking at the wx picture shown on the Flightaware track.  Didn't see where the frontal line was.  Was this storm a fast mover where waiting a bit would have helped and then he could have proceeded without any issues? 

Brian

I believe something said. weak front which is normally not fast moving.  Usually turn into a stalled front or back up turning into a warm front because they don't have enough energy to push offshore.    Radar loop shows it to be there most of yesterday.  https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/yesterday

Nothing is moving fast today either.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree with Scott about the briefing script.  I get virtually no higher level thinking.  The last really good briefing I remember was 8 or 10 years ago where a briefer with boatloads of local knowledge worked through alternative routes and expectations to help me think through a system.  Lately it’s like you’re calling a customer service line and thou shalt not deviate from script.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.