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Why is Quantico forecasting a dust storm?


ShuRugal

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Planning a Saturday excursion IVO DC/Maryland area with some friends, and NYG is forecasting a dust storm...

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Why do these guys always have such outrageous TAFs?  On Thursday, LEIDOS gave me a "VFR not recommended" from Central VA to DC because these jokers were forecasting IFR ceilings and a thunderstorm, while literally everyone around them was forecasting 4,000- to 8,000' ceilings and 6+ visibility (and while everyone including them was forecasting and reporting 4,00'+ ceilings and 10+ vis).  Actual conditions were, surprise, 4,000-6,000' ceilings and 10+ vis.

 

Do the the Marines generate TAFs using a lucky 8 ball?  Do the feed their weather gear the same ration of Crayola the troopers get?

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Planning a Saturday excursion IVO DC/Maryland area with some friends, and NYG is forecasting a dust storm...
mZpAq5TJQZsfcpQTBnexoYf_W4NXENAOOd1Os56jCsw8cvgLsaKLEr8oVYwRt-bcIOQq9jaxfXT6cIRlZf5swudDrxjsncpgvDsHXMXQGZ4VloNveNDe4jrCLW40nOL-xeXus6dMEQNfShJlyLNqPtgbKV60pDp6jUyZNCtFqx-QSUkjdQouHeWkIckkP_JOvBDYhQH-0207ENjDjQnoX1wKI1bmaini6-_dfSeGB1We4OU-NiBGVjlbHyoE7Oe03zhyX1UfGP4MdjRbV4tR0y20h_iJd974z7jIMP06arzhasi0ihU5gBLy-gFE4V1z5ZgjD02ijEPx0pVyXE-ie0_RoETUjF1uBmaJLuoRABXkNTdaOJ8aUq8US6ysTbR6E9YO5NaEgL5O6HScK6Gm1qrNa-hAsFPPN5xbeIIKCmoL1qS8n-Stay8tuDBXMeeptLon-YRNiCEYxZXxkf-3mnlBZGVlPlYKlsAS9MEzhqpgbCfHSQRYfbGRvmgps7Dccxm4sD98rgokX6r-HuXrajWZQdzaYWwjqKE-9UFWkJ_9zOE95tFirIK29n0x5eYfAq_VUoAmeUB-oA6Z7YAt3ckupjgUZFrHnG0i9N6fvNvFJPU33s99SSijWtVn1D7W7qYqKwfMIgqvOF1Hj8M-yloC=w567-h1008-no
 
Why do these guys always have such outrageous TAFs?  On Thursday, LEIDOS gave me a "VFR not recommended" from Central VA to DC because these jokers were forecasting IFR ceilings and a thunderstorm, while literally everyone around them was forecasting 4,000- to 8,000' ceilings and 6+ visibility (and while everyone including them was forecasting and reporting 4,00'+ ceilings and 10+ vis).  Actual conditions were, surprise, 4,000-6,000' ceilings and 10+ vis.
 
Do the the Marines generate TAFs using a lucky 8 ball?  Do the feed their weather gear the same ration of Crayola the troopers get?



What is the source of your weather? Garmin Pilot weather doesn’t show the same weather.

d4caf61b6cd5df83ce7987567e8c091f.jpg


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[mention=9886]Marauder[/mention]
Could Garmin and AeroWeatherbe filtering out the DS code for some reason?  I would be suprised if the AWC was publishing anything that had not come from the forecasters issuing TAFs.


This would be a good one for Scott D to explain to us.


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image.png.b3a8d111b61b45bf25bb748357de98b2.png

 

Raw output of the TAF from NYG on AWC does not have "DS" code listed, but there are all sorts of number groups in there which don't make sense to me... T14? T06? the 6 6-digit codes in every other line?  And why are they including QNH lines in the TAF?

 

Maybe they did stuff some Crayons into the Wx gear...

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image.png.b3a8d111b61b45bf25bb748357de98b2.png  

Raw output of the TAF from NYG on AWC does not have "DS" code listed, but there are all sorts of number groups in there which don't make sense to me... T14? T06? the 6 6-digit codes in every other line?  And why are they including QNH lines in the TAF?

 

Maybe they did stuff some Crayons into the Wx gear...

 

 

The “6” line items denote forecasted icing. As an example, 641209 from above means icing is forecasted to be moderate mixed icing at 12,000 feet going up to 16,000 feet.

 

The “5” line items denote forecasted turbulence. From above, the 530909 means moderate turbulence in clear air happening frequently from 9,000 feet to 18,000 feet.

 

The T14 means the temperature will be 14°C at 20Z on the 28th and will be 6°C (T6) at 12Z on the 29th.

 

Military uses QNH as the identifier for barometric values.

 

The military forecasts contain a fair amount of weather information. Just difficult to read if you haven’t been exposed to it. Hope this helps.

 

 

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16 hours ago, ShuRugal said:

Planning a Saturday excursion IVO DC/Maryland area with some friends, and NYG is forecasting a dust storm...

Why do these guys always have such outrageous TAFs?  On Thursday, LEIDOS gave me a "VFR not recommended" from Central VA to DC because these jokers were forecasting IFR ceilings and a thunderstorm, while literally everyone around them was forecasting 4,000- to 8,000' ceilings and 6+ visibility (and while everyone including them was forecasting and reporting 4,00'+ ceilings and 10+ vis).  Actual conditions were, surprise, 4,000-6,000' ceilings and 10+ vis.

 

Do the the Marines generate TAFs using a lucky 8 ball?  Do the feed their weather gear the same ration of Crayola the troopers get?

Are you referring to a forecast (TAF) or an observation (METAR)?  If it's a TAF, my guess is that the TAF decoder is erroneously picking up on DS in the remarks section, AMENDS.  Basically tells users that there will not be any amendments to the TAF after 15Z on Dec 28th.  I believe the remark suggests the next TAF that will be issued is on Jan 2nd at 09Z.

TEMPO 2909/2912 VRB06KT T14/2820Z T06/2912Z LAST NO AMENDS
          AFT 2815 NEXT 0209=
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4 hours ago, scottd said:

Are you referring to a forecast (TAF) or an observation (METAR)?  If it's a TAF, my guess is that the TAF decoder is erroneously picking up on DS in the remarks section, AMENDS.  Basically tells users that there will not be any amendments to the TAF after 15Z on Dec 28th.  I believe the remark suggests the next TAF that will be issued is on Jan 2nd at 09Z.


TEMPO 2909/2912 VRB06KT T14/2820Z T06/2912Z LAST NO AMENDS
          AFT 2815 NEXT 0209=

That sounds likely. Whenever a location in Virginia is mentioned, it's always presented as (Virginia / Volcanic Ash) . . .

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35 minutes ago, Hank said:

Many of them . . . Especially when weather is moving into or across southern (Virgina / Volcanic Ash).

Hmmm?  TAFs don’t have states in them to decode and the area forecast is retired. So I am at a loss as what forecast that is decoded that has states listed. Perhaps NOTAMs?

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2 hours ago, scottd said:

Hmmm?  TAFs don’t have states in them to decode and the area forecast is retired. So I am at a loss as what forecast that is decoded that has states listed. Perhaps NOTAMs?

Next time I see one, I'll let you know. But living in AL now, I no longer fly WV-NC or WV-GA, so get little VA weather. Definitely not TAF, they are far too short; I'm thinking DUATS-style weather drowning.

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