My weather pet peeves

[ArtVandelay]

Yep found that 6 months ago.    Score another win for windy.   their model got it way more correct that NWS forecast that all the news people were saying.

Yep, it’s the best weather app IMO, SkewTLogPro is 2nd.

FYI, windy is asking for donations, they have to pay for the euro forecast data so for anyone who use it please donate.

[LANCECASPER]

On 12/18/2018 at 12:44 PM, scottd said:

Oh, by the way, I'm still getting over having to put my 14 yr old dog down on Saturday. 

That's the ultimate pet peeve.

[bradp]

Ours is 15 and on chronic pain meds has all sorts of tumors but has mostly good days and seems happy.  We didn’t expect him to make it to Christmas, but he’s trucking along.  We know we’ll have to put him down at potentially any point.  He just got a big comfy new bed for his Christmas present. He’s definitely more liked than me in our family

[steingar]

3 hours ago, bradp said:

Ours is 15 and on chronic pain meds has all sorts of tumors but has mostly good days and seems happy.  We didn’t expect him to make it to Christmas, but he’s trucking along.  We know we’ll have to put him down at potentially any point.  He just got a big comfy new bed for his Christmas present. He’s definitely more liked than me in our family

When he stops eating it'll be time.

[Yetti]

On 12/20/2018 at 8:32 AM, scottd said:

What forecast are you using from the NWS?  Here's the aviation forecast.  Says nothing about hail or thunderstorms.  After 06Z the possibility of showers in the vicinity until 12Z.  

KHOU 192336Z 2000/2024 31006KT P6SM SCT015 
      TEMPO 2002/2006 BKN015 
     FM200600 32007KT P6SM VCSH SCT007 OVC015 
     FM201200 31015G25KT P6SM SCT250 

Appears to be an excellent forecast with some light rain around 10Z or so.  

KHOU 200953Z 29006KT 8SM -RA BKN014 BKN026 OVC035 13/12 A2979 RMK AO2 RAB07 SLP093 P0002 T01280117
KHOU 200907Z 29005KT 7SM -RA BKN014 BKN022 OVC038 13/12 A2979 RMK AO2 RAB07 P0000 T01280117

And at IAH light rain from 07Z to 11Z.  Again a pretty darn good forecast from the NWS.  

KIAH 201053Z 31008KT 10SM -RA SCT010 BKN050 OVC080 13/12 A2980 RMK AO2 RAB36 SLP093 P0001 T01280122
KIAH 201038Z 31008KT 10SM -RA SCT015 BKN055 OVC120 13/13 A2980 RMK AO2 RAB36 P0000 T01330128
KIAH 200853Z 29005KT 10SM -RA FEW009 BKN025 OVC050 12/12 A2979 RMK AO2 RAB05 SLP088 BKN025 V SCT P0001 60005 T01220122 53002
KIAH 200843Z 29005KT 10SM -RA FEW005 BKN025 BKN060 OVC130 12/12 A2979 RMK AO2 RAB05 P0000 T01220122
KIAH 200653Z 30003KT 10SM -RA MIFG BKN018 BKN040 OVC080 12/12 A2978 RMK AO2 RAB48 SLP086 P0000 T01220122

KIAH 192336Z 2000/2106 00000KT P6SM SCT013 
      TEMPO 2002/2006 BKN015 
     FM200600 31006KT P6SM VCSH SCT007 OVC015 
     FM201200 32015G25KT P6SM SCT250 
     FM210200 31010KT P6SM SKC 

 

 

the forecast was on the local news cast and they get it from the NWS.  I guess they were being overly dramatic without actually reading the weather.

 

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

11 hours ago, Yetti said:

the forecast was on the local news cast and they get it from the NWS.  I guess they were being overly dramatic without actually reading the weather.

 

You need to stop watching the local news and actually looking at the real NWS forecast which had a accurate prediction.  Read the discussion and you will have a better appreciation for the difficulty these meteorologists have sometimes.  And now they will be working for free due to the government shutdown. 

[kpaul]

1 hour ago, scottd said:

And now they will be working for free due to the government shutdown. 

But, not really since once the shutdown is over they will get all back pay.  In my 18+ years in the military I have been part of multiple shutdowns including at least 3 while I was deployed in combat.  So I am sorry, but I do not feel bad for a government employee that sits in an office during a shutdown.

[Yetti]

Wait what?  Are you saying that the TV meteorologist would embellish NWS forecast?   You should see them after the tropical storm has turned and they have the city whipped into a frenzy.  They can go on for another 4 hours long after the threat is passed.  <sarcasm off>

[steingar]

49 minutes ago, kpaul said:

But, not really since once the shutdown is over they will get all back pay.  In my 18+ years in the military I have been part of multiple shutdowns including at least 3 while I was deployed in combat.  So I am sorry, but I do not feel bad for a government employee that sits in an office during a shutdown.

Sorry to get political. Those folks still have to pay their bills. Goncourt IOUs don’t pay for groceries or impress your banker.

[Scott Dennstaedt, PhD]

3 hours ago, steingar said:

Those folks still have to pay their bills. Goncourt IOUs don’t pay for groceries or impress your banker.

Amen!  Having been there and done that on a gov't salary, raising a family and barely making ends meet, it can be an extreme hardship without the continuous cash flow.   

[kpaul]

6 hours ago, steingar said:

Sorry to get political. Those folks still have to pay their bills. Goncourt IOUs don’t pay for groceries or impress your banker.

Apparently reading comprehension is not your strong suite.  Read my post again.  Actually, I will just post it again for you "In my 18+ years in the military I have been part of multiple shutdowns including at least 3 while I was deployed in combat."  That's right, deployed in combat with no paycheck!  I had a family at home, yet no paycheck and bills to pay.  Still went out and did my job everyday.  I have been there.

I'm not worried about the NWS not being paid as much as Homeland Security, Customs/Border Patrol, and the Coast Guard.  Those folks are putting their lives on the line with no paycheck.

 

 

[steingar]

18 hours ago, kpaul said:

I'm not worried about the NWS not being paid as much as Homeland Security, Customs/Border Patrol, and the Coast Guard.  Those folks are putting their lives on the line with no paycheck.

First, thank you for your service, and I am truly sorry political shenanigans so affected your life while you were in danger serving your country.

Second, I will remind you that mercenaries fight for pay. Soldiers fight for their countries.

i was in DC during the first shutdown during the Clinton Administration. We all kept doing our research despite the lack of paychecks (actually, I was the only one getting paid). I think the higher ups wanted to chase everyone out, something about them not being insured during the shutdown.

i think it aweful that the squabbles of rich politicians so affect working people, no matter who they work for.  It is far more bitter for soldiers in the field, admittedly. 

[kpaul]

31 minutes ago, steingar said:

think it aweful that the squabbles of rich politicians so affect working people, no matter who they work for.

Now that I can whole heartily agree with.

[M016576]

On 12/18/2018 at 1:34 PM, gsxrpilot said:

@scottd I like the way you think. I've also been a bit of a contrarian when it comes to those adages. There have been plenty of times when friends of mine, other pilots say the weather is forecast to be bad and therefore they've scrapped their plans for flying. But I'll go up and fly anyway and it's just fine. It might be a different situation in a different area of the country. But here in Texas we have wide open spaces and weather can be seen coming from 100 miles away or more. I'll often say, I'll just go up and have a look. And every time, there is a way around the weather, or it didn't turn out to be as bad, or the ceilings are much higher and we can go under, etc. Also with lots of airports, there are lots of options for diverting, 

I've only canceled one trip that I can remember, because of weather. It was from 84R to 1T7. We had low IFR conditions in the morning. And neither 84R or 1T7 have any approaches. The only time I had available for the flight was before noon. And so we scrapped the flight as we knew we couldn't get into either airport once in the air. But if we'd taken off for some reason, we could have easily diverted to any number of other airports with good ILS or LPV approaches.

I know this is a sensitive topic for many, and I'm probably being blasphemous by talking this way. But I really hate to see pilots who have been convinced that they have to have 'personal minimums' that will never let them get off the ground at any hint of weather. 

With an instrument rating and proper currency I follow two rules: Don't fly into thunderstorms, and don't fly through ice. Other than those two, weather is not a big deal.

That’s legit.  It’s typically not weather alone that drives me to cancel- but a combination of risk factors and weather.  Snow storm, plus mountains, plus passengers, etc.

and to a well trained IFR pilot, weather alone *shouldnt* kill. Mainly because the risk management decisions (icing, convective activity, etc) should be sound enough to where the pilots skill set can easily support their flight.

weather does compound other problems, though.... I launched on a flight into 300’ with rain->FL350 about 12 years ago.. solid imc.  After running a couple practice intercepts up at fl400, one of my two generators failed.  I knocked off my training at that point and started the 100-ish NM flight back to base.  30NM out, at 9000’, on vectors, I lost my other generator and the battery threw itself into emergency isolate.  Lost all my navigation displays, my gps failed, my ins tumbled and lost alignment.  I was in a 65 million dollar jet, hard imc, with only a single radio, a wet compass and a standby “peanut” gyro to navigate with.  Luckily I was able to get a no-gyro approach back to my base... because there were no other fields within 280NM that we’re reporting anything better than 1000’ with rain...

it’s not the weather alone that sucks.  It’s dealing with other problems in the weather.  But that’s where training helps, too.