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Long Body Market?


smccray

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What's going on? 

There are a ton of long bodies on the market right now.  My my count there are 32 US based ovations on the market compared to only 13 US based J models.  I'm looking at Controller so I"m sure there are other planes advertised on other sites, but wow- looks like a fantastic time to upgrade a J to an R.  J model prices are up, and competition should push some pricing on ovations down, particularly if an owner wants to get something done by the end of the year.

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I saw that too when browsing around on controller. As of right now there are 60 Long bodies for sale on controller. Realistically like 55 because delta aviation likes to post the Ovation GX's under ovation 2 and 3 so they double post however that still that number is insanely high compared what I've seen over the last 2 years. I remember looking last Christmas and struggling to see more than 30 long bodies. There's even a really nice eagle for sale. who ever gets that thing will be a lucky person.

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I’ve come to the same conclusion and have shifted my focus. Acclaims getting close to 300 and some ovations priced at almost half of that. I think things will come in waves and it would not surprise me to see upwards of 100 J’s for sale at certain times over the next decade. 

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Watch for waves in the economy...  

Last time I saw a wave like this... I had just started looking to buy a J, became interested in a Missile, as volatile prices dipped, I got the O instead... we went from Over priced Js to underpriced Os in a year.... at the same price point.

What may be causing the wave... Chinese trade issues... combined with the more important rising interest rates...?

Have you seen the stock market gyrations since October...?

Fortunately, the economy is still strong and unemployment is still very low.

Don’t wait too long. 

Best regards,

-a-

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Rough fleet size; # for sale ; % for sale

Acclaim: 130; 7; 5.3%

Ovation: 500; 30; 6%

Bravo: 360; 12; 3.3%

 

If anything, that Bravo number looks really low.  Perhaps discouraged sellers removing their planes from the market?

5-10% of the fleet for sale  is pretty much the norm for most makes and models in the piston world..

-de

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15 minutes ago, teejayevans said:

It gets worst because there are idiots that try to sell other models as a J with the higher price point.
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Delta aviation again. Quite annoying as the post the same models multiple times. They do the same with the Ovations. They post ovations twice under 2gx and 3gx. This is a little more. I don't understand why you'd post this as a J. its still an E, no matter how many mods you put on it.

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On 11/13/2018 at 1:28 PM, smccray said:

What's going on? 

There are a ton of long bodies on the market right now.  My my count there are 32 US based ovations on the market compared to only 13 US based J models.  I'm looking at Controller so I"m sure there are other planes advertised on other sites, but wow- looks like a fantastic time to upgrade a J to an R.  J model prices are up, and competition should push some pricing on ovations down, particularly if an owner wants to get something done by the end of the year.

Yea, I noticed that on Controller.  Just looking at their current listings, there's quite a few out there vs. several months ago.

Specifically of note - all but one of the 2005 - 2007 O2 GX models have the STEC-55X AP...which the large majority of folks looking to buy in this category don't want...they'd rather have the GFC-700 (and for good reason), and yet the WAAS upgrade from the 1040 to the 1042 or 1044 display is tens upon tens of thousands of $$ - IF it's even available to do anymore.

The "sweet spot" in the Ovation market today for those looking to customize the aircraft to the highest level - whether it be glass with all the bells and whistles or anything in between - is a 1995 through 2004 model year Ovation.  Assuming you find one that has been well-maintained and corrosion-free, it's a very reasonable buy.  Most of their panels are typically unmolested and have a ton of potential for a lot of nice upgrades at decent cost, versus their younger cousins that may have slightly lower airframe and engine times, but whose upgrade costs could be many times higher, hence, financially putting it out of reach.

Steve

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I'd also have to agree that the 1994 to 2004 ovations and eagles are an awesome buy. Personally my favorites are the 99 to 04's because they organized the panel a tad bit better in my opinion but that's all personal preference. Most of the regular O1's seem to be going for around 140 to 180k. The cheapest ovation GX with waas I found was 295K. I Think its a way better investment to take an eagle or an Older Ovation, or bravo, and just upgrade the panel, interior, and paint to what you want. 115 to 155k saved leaves a lot of room for options. With that you can do a full panel upgrade and not be completely locked into garmins G1000 program. Older planes also tend to have a better useful load. especially the eagle. With 1135 Lbs of useful load I can take throw 4 people and still take 75 gallons.

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12 minutes ago, Niko182 said:

I'd also have to agree that the 1994 to 2004 ovations and eagles are an awesome buy. Personally my favorites are the 99 to 04's because they organized the panel a tad bit better in my opinion but that's all personal preference. Most of the regular O1's seem to be going for around 140 to 180k. The cheapest ovation GX with waas I found was 295K. I Think its a way better investment to take an eagle or an Older Ovation, or bravo, and just upgrade the panel, interior, and paint to what you want. 115 to 155k saved leaves a lot of room for options. With that you can do a full panel upgrade and not be completely locked into garmins G1000 program. Older planes also tend to have a better useful load. especially the eagle. With 1135 Lbs of useful load I can take throw 4 people and still take 75 gallons.

Buy-in of an O1 or an O3 would end up the same by the time you convert the panel, Hartzell prop and 310 HP STC.  I would stay away from the Bravo and the Eagle.  The Bravo is an incredibly capable airplane, but the operating cost is high.  By the time you account for the panel conversion you're better off owning an Acclaim at a lower operating cost.  The Eagle has a better useful load primarily by stripping down options.

G500TXI and EIS, G5, GFC500, GTN750, GNC255, GTX345, and your choice of audio panel.  A lot of capability and clean.  I'm familiar with this conversion with a different autopilot.

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1 hour ago, StevenL757 said:

Specifically of note - all but one of the 2005 - 2007 O2 GX models have the STEC-55X AP...which the large majority of folks looking to buy in this category don't want...they'd rather have the GFC-700 (and for good reason), and yet the WAAS upgrade from the 1040 to the 1042 or 1044 display is tens upon tens of thousands of $$ - IF it's even available to do anymore.

My own take is that these planes are going to end up orphaned pretty quickly.  The Garmin autopilot STCs are excluding G1000 airplanes which will make converting the avionics to new Garmin avionics.  Hopefully there's a path to convert these planes to an NXI system with a GFC700 autopilot for a price-tag that makes sense.  Converting the 55x to an Stec 3100 has been discussed here, but it doesn't make any sense to me.  They're great airplanes and have great capability but I would expect a big discount to a similarly equipped G1000 airplane with a GFC700.  

I also wouldn't buy a non-WAAS equipped airplane, or even anything less than a full VNAV equipped (option 3) G1000 airplane.

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As one who is also following the a36 market closely it amazes me how much more the bonanza brings in the used market. A nice (‘82) sold awhile back for around the same price as a 2000 ish Ovation.  The newer ones really suffer with UL but they are kind on the eyes. 

I’d take an eagle for the right price. However, the 95-98 Ovation or DX is my desirable range...I like the 9 pack.

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2 hours ago, smccray said:

Buy-in of an O1 or an O3 would end up the same by the time you convert the panel, Hartzell prop and 310 HP STC.  I would stay away from the Bravo and the Eagle.  The Bravo is an incredibly capable airplane, but the operating cost is high.  By the time you account for the panel conversion you're better off owning an Acclaim at a lower operating cost.  The Eagle has a better useful load primarily by stripping down options.

G500TXI and EIS, G5, GFC500, GTN750, GNC255, GTX345, and your choice of audio panel.  A lot of capability and clean.  I'm familiar with this conversion with a different autopilot.

First off the eagle wasnt really stripped of options. It had a 2 blade, which can be switched back to a 3 blade. The part that made a difference in weight was the insulation for sound proofing. The eagle is louder to fly, but its not noticeable when youre wearing an ANR headset. The one i have still has a GPS, speed brakes, leather interior. Other than that, there's not a whole lot of differences.

 

And operation costs delta between the acclaim and the bravo arent that big. Every acclaim ive seen needed a top overhaul half way. The bravo uses a tad but more fuel but saying in the end the difference in ownership is negligible between a 400k acclaim and a 150k bravo plus another 100k in upgrades is a bit off. Just my opinion however. I might be completely wrong.

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2 hours ago, smccray said:

My own take is that these planes are going to end up orphaned pretty quickly.  The Garmin autopilot STCs are excluding G1000 airplanes which will make converting the avionics to new Garmin avionics.  Hopefully there's a path to convert these planes to an NXI system with a GFC700 autopilot for a price-tag that makes sense.  Converting the 55x to an Stec 3100 has been discussed here, but it doesn't make any sense to me.  They're great airplanes and have great capability but I would expect a big discount to a similarly equipped G1000 airplane with a GFC700.  

I also wouldn't buy a non-WAAS equipped airplane, or even anything less than a full VNAV equipped (option 3) G1000 airplane.

Yea, agree.  You'll probably see larger discounts as more "U" and "V" models hit the streets, and naturally, as the G1000 Opt. 3 birds age more.

So, Scott - are you thinking about drinking the Ovation KoolAid ?  :-)

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13 hours ago, Niko182 said:

First off the eagle wasnt really stripped of options. It had a 2 blade, which can be switched back to a 3 blade. The part that made a difference in weight was the insulation for sound proofing. The eagle is louder to fly, but its not noticeable when youre wearing an ANR headset. The one i have still has a GPS, speed brakes, leather interior. Other than that, there's not a whole lot of differences.

 

And operation costs delta between the acclaim and the bravo arent that big. Every acclaim ive seen needed a top overhaul half way. The bravo uses a tad but more fuel but saying in the end the difference in ownership is negligible between a 400k acclaim and a 150k bravo plus another 100k in upgrades is a bit off. Just my opinion however. I might be completely wrong.

There were a lot of smaller things they did to save money on the Eagle, some of which can be upgraded - the lighter prop allowed them to remove 16 lbs in ballast weights from the back of the airplane, the de-rated IO-550 engine, the insulation as you mention, the vast majority had cloth seats, the control yokes were painted instead of leather covered, the paint scheme was much less labor intensive.

But the number one thing that they saved a huge amount on was the autopilot which has been, up until this point, too expensive to retrofit. They only put basic Stec 30 autopilots in the Eagles which would not fly a coupled approach. The Ovations  had either the KFC150 (in 1999) or the KFC225 autopilot (in 2000 -2004), either of which was a complete flight control system capable of fully coupled approaches, vertical speed, altitude pre-select, etc. This meant an Attitude Indicator on the Eagle instead of a Flight Director and a less expensive Stec ST-180 HSI instead of the King KCS-55A HSI and remote gyro compass system. 

 - - - 

I agree completely on the Bravo vs. Acclaim. The oil cooled valve guides on the Bravo engine allow the vast majority to make it to TBO without a top end overhaul. At top speed there is about 10-15 knots difference, but for the cost difference I think the Bravo is one of the best buys on the used airplane market considering its top speed. The number one reason I have never owned an Acclaim is that someday down the road when Garmin decides to stop supporting parts or databases for the G1000, it will not be a good day for the G1000 Mooneys*. Someone will probably come up with an ingenious way to retrofit other avionics, but it's going to be tough since the G1000 is part of the Type Certificate. With the things going on in avionics right now I would hate to be tied to one option.

 

* As an example, Garmin announced that, 15 years after the last one was produced in 2004, they will stop repairing the GNS480 (or Apollo CNX480) starting next summer. They also announced that next summer they will stop providing databases to the GX50, meaning you won't be able to keep the database IFR current., 

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1 hour ago, StevenL757 said:

Yea, agree.  You'll probably see larger discounts as more "U" and "V" models hit the streets, and naturally, as the G1000 Opt. 3 birds age more.

So, Scott - are you thinking about drinking the Ovation KoolAid ?  :-)

:)  I went to my wife 9 months ago and said I was buying an ovation. I had done the logbook review, talked to the broker, and was going to submit an offer the next day on a ‘97 (I think) ovation 3. I had been talking about upgrading for a while and my wife had always said no.  This time she just said not another Mooney.  She didn’t find it to be comfortable.  I’ll always be a mooniac, but I subscribe to the theory that the best plane for any mission is the one your wife likes.

Wife and two little girls (3 and 6 weeks)- I need more space in the plane than would be feasible in an ovation.  The goal was family plus bags ~600 miles in 3 hours.  Not feasible in an ovation, but not far off in a turbo normalized A36.  The Bo won’t make it in 3 hours, but at least it will be a comfortable ride. 

I brought the plane home and took my wife to see it. I showed her the rear cabin- she sat down and smiled at the space.  Then she looked at the panel and said, “no glass?  You’re going to redo that right?”  So that’s the story of how I bought a Bonanza in May and why the bird is in the avionics shop right now.

 

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  I went to my wife 9 months ago and said I was buying an ovation. I had done the logbook review, talked to the broker, and was going to submit an offer the next day on a ‘97 (I think) ovation 3. I had been talking about upgrading for a while and my wife had always said no.  This time she just said not another Mooney.  She didn’t find it to be comfortable.  I’ll always be a mooniac, but I subscribe to the theory that the best plane for any mission is the one your wife likes.
Wife and two little girls (3 and 6 weeks)- I need more space in the plane than would be feasible in an ovation.  The goal was family plus bags ~600 miles in 3 hours.  Not feasible in an ovation, but not far off in a turbo normalized A36.  The Bo won’t make it in 3 hours, but at least it will be a comfortable ride. 
I brought the plane home and took my wife to see it. I showed her the rear cabin- she sat down and smiled at the space.  Then she looked at the panel and said, “no glass?  You’re going to redo that right?”  So that’s the story of how I bought a Bonanza in May and why the bird is in the avionics shop right now.
 
That's a great story!

Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk

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Mrs. Steingar started out not liking the Mooney.  She didn't like the step down.  She didn't like the seats.  She said over and over again I shouldn't have traded my Cherokee (in truth it was a really nice Cherokee).

Flying back from D.C. in two hours changed her tune completely.  Now she's a fan.

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Sounds like mine, back n the mid 1980’s I had a warrior to learn to fly in. We went on our first trip the day after I got my PPL, the cars on the highway were just as fast as us or faster, she wanted to know why I got a plane that wasn’t as fast as a car. So we started to look at planes, after looking at a Bo, Cherokee six, C 182 then a Mooney it was over. She sat in them all, I’m not going to trash any other planes,she does, therefore it was a Mooney or nothing. 30years later and now three Mooneys she won’t change her mind a Mooney or nothing. 

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20 hours ago, smccray said:

Buy-in of an O1 or an O3 would end up the same by the time you convert the panel, Hartzell prop and 310 HP STC.  I would stay away from the Bravo and the Eagle.  The Bravo is an incredibly capable airplane, but the operating cost is high.  By the time you account for the panel conversion you're better off owning an Acclaim at a lower operating cost.  The Eagle has a better useful load primarily by stripping down options.

G500TXI and EIS, G5, GFC500, GTN750, GNC255, GTX345, and your choice of audio panel.  A lot of capability and clean.  I'm familiar with this conversion with a different autopilot.

I really can’t agree that the operating costs of the Bravo are all that high. I say that though with a caveat. That’s once you get it completely dialed in so far as all systems are concerned with everything operating rock solid where you want it. But then again that really applies to any new-used plane that is 15-50 years old. The reliability an dispatch rate of the Bravo has been great,  and as mentioned above, it has a  Lycoming that will make TBO with little problem if you fly it correctly which really isn’t that hard, and this certainly should be factored into the equation .  Some might argue that burning 18 to 19 gallons an hour in cruise  is high , but it really is reasonable when you consider the speed and therefore efficiency of the thing, being able to get up and over a lot of weather that you would otherwise have to circumnavigate, etc 

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22 hours ago, Niko182 said:

And operation costs delta between the acclaim and the bravo arent that big. Every acclaim ive seen needed a top overhaul half way. The bravo uses a tad but more fuel but saying in the end the difference in ownership is negligible between a 400k acclaim and a 150k bravo plus another 100k in upgrades is a bit off. Just my opinion however. I might be completely wrong.

I agree about the bravo operating cost. I’m curious if the Acclaim owners backed off to bravo climb and cruise performance and used LOP religiously if the top overhauls would be less frequent. Some say the io550 always needs to be topped part way to tbo but as you know that’s not always the case.  I personally think after torching 3/4 mil that I’d be burning fuel and cylinders to reach TP speed. I don’t really think one worries about a 10k top as the plane depreciates 350k. 

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Top is $6 or $7/ hour, so it hardly makes the needle quiver vs $80- $100/hour in fuel or $40 / hr in engine reserves.  The downtime sucks, though.

TSIO 550G factory rebuilt is something like $85,000 by the time it gets to your shop.  TIO540 AF1B is probably close to $70,000.  However, it's difficult to do apples:apples since the TSIO550G from the factory comes with turbos, alternator, exhaust system, and on and on.  It's almost a complete engine/accessory package, and if you need those things, it is price competitive with field overhaul of engine/accessories/exhaust.

I'd guess that the TCO of a bravo and an Acclaim are pretty close.

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