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Video series on weather analysis


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Over the next three weeks, I will be doing a video series for several fly-in events.  Each series will include one or more videos showing you how to identify the adverse weather if you are planning to fly to any of these events.  I did a similar series for those flying into AirVenture.  The first video below is an analysis for those attending my Weather Essentials for Pilots live workshop in Williamsport, Pa. on September 8-9.  Even if you are not flying to any of these events, I hope it'll be educational nonetheless.  Please keep in mind that this is for educational purposes only and does not substitute for a formal preflight weather briefing.  

If you want to see the other videos in the series, please check our WeatherSpork YouTube channel or subscribe to stay updated.  Enjoy!

http://youtu.be/Ywej54sOCYQ 

Edited by scottd
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20 hours ago, scottd said:

Over the next three weeks, I will be doing a video series for several fly-in events.  Each series will include one or more videos showing you how to identify the adverse weather if you are planning to fly to any of these events.  I did a similar series for those flying into AirVenture.  The first video below is an analysis for those attending my Weather Essentials for Pilots live workshop in Williamsport, Pa. on September 8-9.  Even if you are not flying to any of these events, I hope it'll be educational nonetheless.  Please keep in mind that this is for educational purposes only and does not substitute for a formal preflight weather briefing.  

If you want to see the other videos in the series, please check our WeatherSpork YouTube channel or subscribe to stay updated.  Enjoy!

http://youtu.be/Ywej54sOCYQ 

Hi Scott, I’m intrigued by having all in one place. I use AOPA, Skyvector and the AWG website and wonder why I should spend money on your app...do you have more good reasons and a trial ? ;-)

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48 minutes ago, FastTex said:

Hi Scott, I’m intrigued by having all in one place. I use AOPA, Skyvector and the AWG website and wonder why I should spend money on your app...do you have more good reasons and a trial ? ;-)

Yes, you can go to http://weatherspork.com and click on Login and you'll be able to create a trial account there.  

Most briefings are single threaded in nature.  You tell the briefer (or via an online service) your flight plan which includes departure and destination airport, route of flight, altitude, duration of the flight and lastly, the estimated time of departure.  You get a flood of data back at you and it might not look so good.  What about 3 hours later?  Or perhaps later in the afternoon?  Maybe tomorrow morning?  So you have to "hunt" using this time-consuming and error prone trial and error process that's been around for 50+ years.  WeatherSpork has taken the time element and placed it front and center.  I've said for years, I can teach you a lot about weather, but I'd rather school you on how to manage your schedule.  We look at all possible departure times over the next three days and instantly lay this out in front of you so you can quickly see the ETD that minimizes your exposure to adverse weather.   

We are not an EFB.  WeatherSpork is a tool that is complementary to the products you may currently use in the cockpit.  We also have a training component as you can see from some of these videos, plus over 80+ bit-sized workshops within the WeatherSpork app that I personally created over the last 10 years to teach you how to recognize and understand adverse weather and the limitations of the guidance pilots use every day.  WeatherSpork has the most comprehensive weather imagery available online that includes high resolution forecasts (at 15 minute intervals in some cases) to provide a situational awareness you won't get anywhere else.   

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6 hours ago, scottd said:

Yes, you can go to http://weatherspork.com and click on Login and you'll be able to create a trial account there.  

Most briefings are single threaded in nature.  You tell the briefer (or via an online service) your flight plan which includes departure and destination airport, route of flight, altitude, duration of the flight and lastly, the estimated time of departure.  You get a flood of data back at you and it might not look so good.  What about 3 hours later?  Or perhaps later in the afternoon?  Maybe tomorrow morning?  So you have to "hunt" using this time-consuming and error prone trial and error process that's been around for 50+ years.  WeatherSpork has taken the time element and placed it front and center.  I've said for years, I can teach you a lot about weather, but I'd rather school you on how to manage your schedule.  We look at all possible departure times over the next three days and instantly lay this out in front of you so you can quickly see the ETD that minimizes your exposure to adverse weather.   

We are not an EFB.  WeatherSpork is a tool that is complementary to the products you may currently use in the cockpit.  We also have a training component as you can see from some of these videos, plus over 80+ bit-sized workshops within the WeatherSpork app that I personally created over the last 10 years to teach you how to recognize and understand adverse weather and the limitations of the guidance pilots use every day.  WeatherSpork has the most comprehensive weather imagery available online that includes high resolution forecasts (at 15 minute intervals in some cases) to provide a situational awareness you won't get anywhere else.   

I think you have earned a subscriber. However, I cannot find how to trial it...even after registering the website wants $79...do you have a promotional code I can use?

Thanks!

Edited by FastTex
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6 minutes ago, FastTex said:

I think you have earned a subscriber. However, I cannot find how to trial it...even after registering the website wants $79...do you have a promotional code I can use?

Thanks!

Go to https://app.weatherspork.com/ You will see the attached screen.  Then Click on the "Need an Account?" button to sign up for a trial.  

Login.png

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1 minute ago, FastTex said:

+1

I would like to see more "simulations" to maximize the app utilization. Scott, do you have more videos planned?

Yes, I am holding another live aviation weather workshop in the Houston area in two weeks...will likely do a similar WeatherSpork video series for that.  I'll be posting these to the WeatherSpork YouTube starting as early as September 17th.  I'm also doing a video series for pilots flying into the Las Vegas Cirrus Owners & Pilots Association Migration in October.  

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1 minute ago, scottd said:

Yes, I am holding another live aviation weather workshop in the Houston area in two weeks...will likely do a similar WeatherSpork video series for that.  I'll be posting these to the WeatherSpork YouTube starting as early as September 17th.  I'm also doing a video series for pilots flying into the Las Vegas Cirrus Owners & Pilots Association Migration in October.  

Awesome! I think that's how we can best learn how to use WeatherSpork. BTW since I subscribed that's all I'm using for weather, really cool although I have still a lot to learn...

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1 minute ago, FastTex said:

Awesome! I think that's how we can best learn how to use WeatherSpork. BTW since I subscribed that's all I'm using for weather, really cool although I have still a lot to learn...

Very nice to hear....but what is really cool is that what you see with the app is literally just the beginning...we have a ton of other features planned that will make the current version look pretty parochial.  B)

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It kind of looks like you are using NWS models.  I have been testing windy.com that uses the ECMWF model and has been really good 4 days out which is almost impossible with the NWS model.  For 1 day out windy.com has been within 15 minutes accurate.

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9 hours ago, Yetti said:

It kind of looks like you are using NWS models.  I have been testing windy.com that uses the ECMWF model and has been really good 4 days out which is almost impossible with the NWS model.  For 1 day out windy.com has been within 15 minutes accurate.

Windy is a tool that you can switch between models such as the ECMWF, NAM, GFS and NEMS models.  I use some of the U.S. models because they provide a much higher temporal and spatial resolution than you can get with the ECMWF.  Also, those models are used in products like forecast radar, CIP, FIP, GTG, etc that don't use the ECMWF.  

If you look at the ECMWF forecast right now for Florence, it is showing landfall at 12 a.m. on Friday much further south than the official forecast.  

ECMWF-Florence.thumb.png.91e4e387838397ed839a4929125cdcc6.png

The official forecast from the NHC is...

NHC-Track.png.b4b96c9f570e640642ea1b4a8f8c21c2.png

Then the ECMWF has the track (remnants) headed toward Augusta, Georgia by 11 am on Sunday.

ECMWF-Florence-TD.thumb.png.1d6d73718fb7deca690a2f307b77f7ea.png

The official track is for it to be in western Virginia by 8 a.m. on Sunday. 

progE_3.gif.f6fe65a7b05294603081f2da1932e1b1.gif

So rather big differences in forecasts.  The GFS now has the storm making landfall closer to the official location, but then stopping and moving northeast until looping back to the coast with a "second" landfall around Myrtle Beach, SC before heading northwest towards Florence, SC and Fayetteville, NC.  Will the ECMWF be accurate within 15 minutes as you say?  I doubt it - no model is that accurate or we would never use the other models.   But only time will tell.

 

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Yes good to document Florance to see.   we can come back and check.     I am 2 good and 1 missed on Windy.   The July 4th storm that hit SE Texas Windy was spot on.    It missed Gordon 4 days out,   For the 1 day out windy is scarily accurate.   Beats the pants off the NWC models.

Since I am gulf coast Currently watching the X off the Yucatan

Yesterday Windy had it at Bay City

Today Windy has it at Corpus Christi

NHC can only put it an X on the chart which does not help people plan.

 

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OK X on chart and conditions favorable for development.   And 1500 miles of coast line should watch it.   There is a clean side and dirty side, that's an extra 750 miles of coastline worrying about nothing.

 

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
disturbed weather located over the extreme northwestern Caribbean
Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better
organized. Ship reports indicate that this system is producing
strong gusty winds over the Yucatan Channel. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by Thursday night while the disturbance
moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. If necessary, an Air Force
Reconnaissance plane will investigate the system tomorrow.
Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue
over western Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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On 9/9/2018 at 8:49 PM, scottd said:

Yes, I am holding another live aviation weather workshop in the Houston area in two weeks...will likely do a similar WeatherSpork video series for that.  I'll be posting these to the WeatherSpork YouTube starting as early as September 17th.  I'm also doing a video series for pilots flying into the Las Vegas Cirrus Owners & Pilots Association Migration in October.  

ahh...Scott...you shouldn't have said that :D

On Thursday the 27th and Friday morning the 28th some 160 participants (at least 100 aircraft I'd guess) will attend the Mooney Summit at KECP (Panama City Beaches) in the Florida panhandle. A fair few, like myself, will fly in from New England and the mid-Atlantic seaboard. Feel like doing one of these series for that group?

Related but separate....We should connect you with @mike_elliott and @Seth who run the Mooney Summitt about getting you on the program next year :)

Robert

 

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19 minutes ago, Robert C. said:

ahh...Scott...you shouldn't have said that :D

On Thursday the 27th and Friday morning the 28th some 160 participants (at least 100 aircraft I'd guess) will attend the Mooney Summit at KECP (Panama City Beaches) in the Florida panhandle. A fair few, like myself, will fly in from New England and the mid-Atlantic seaboard. Feel like doing one of these series for that group?

Related but separate....We should connect you with @mike_elliott and @Seth_Meyers who run the Mooney Summitt about getting you on the program next year :)

Robert

 

Not sure I'll have time during that week to do a similar thing.   But let me see what my schedule holds.  Yes, as long as there are no "life events" happening I may be able to do something next year.

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A possible bringing the models together.   This morning we have Windy.com starting a landing around Whilmington Friday afternoon. 

image.thumb.png.49e9c22f27e12df57fda67a42cdb2b41.png

 

Moving down and terrorizing the coast and going inshore around Savannah Sunday Afternoon.  Being driven down the coast by a cold front from the north.  Which will be three days of suck for the East coast.

image.thumb.png.091f14ee4ea64869f0a0b069291a7f77.png

 

Calling the exact landfall will not really matter since the thing is a big as the whole Atlantic Seaboard.

 

image.thumb.png.f97a7b1b02dfefaf361f83c90aa372ae.png

The National hurricane center was not addressing the moving down the coast yesterday.   Hopefully they will get the concept out there today. There is just a whole lot of suck ahead for the east coast.

 

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Me thinks the stalled front will be pushing it a bit further south before landfall.  Or it will try and flip around the end.  The NHC tends to forget that all Texas storms take a right hand turn just before landfall.   I don't know what they do on the Atlantic Coast.

image.thumb.png.410647e488c006e8ef2d1af585b385a7.png

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