Scott Dennstaedt, PhD Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 (edited) Over the next three weeks, I will be doing a video series for several fly-in events. Each series will include one or more videos showing you how to identify the adverse weather if you are planning to fly to any of these events. I did a similar series for those flying into AirVenture. The first video below is an analysis for those attending my Weather Essentials for Pilots live workshop in Williamsport, Pa. on September 8-9. Even if you are not flying to any of these events, I hope it'll be educational nonetheless. Please keep in mind that this is for educational purposes only and does not substitute for a formal preflight weather briefing. If you want to see the other videos in the series, please check our WeatherSpork YouTube channel or subscribe to stay updated. Enjoy! http://youtu.be/Ywej54sOCYQ Edited September 5, 2018 by scottd 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danb Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 I recently subscribed to WeatherSpork awesome. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FastTex Posted September 4, 2018 Report Share Posted September 4, 2018 20 hours ago, scottd said: Over the next three weeks, I will be doing a video series for several fly-in events. Each series will include one or more videos showing you how to identify the adverse weather if you are planning to fly to any of these events. I did a similar series for those flying into AirVenture. The first video below is an analysis for those attending my Weather Essentials for Pilots live workshop in Williamsport, Pa. on September 8-9. Even if you are not flying to any of these events, I hope it'll be educational nonetheless. Please keep in mind that this is for educational purposes only and does not substitute for a formal preflight weather briefing. If you want to see the other videos in the series, please check our WeatherSpork YouTube channel or subscribe to stay updated. Enjoy! http://youtu.be/Ywej54sOCYQ Hi Scott, I’m intrigued by having all in one place. I use AOPA, Skyvector and the AWG website and wonder why I should spend money on your app...do you have more good reasons and a trial ? ;-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dennstaedt, PhD Posted September 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 4, 2018 48 minutes ago, FastTex said: Hi Scott, I’m intrigued by having all in one place. I use AOPA, Skyvector and the AWG website and wonder why I should spend money on your app...do you have more good reasons and a trial ? ;-) Yes, you can go to http://weatherspork.com and click on Login and you'll be able to create a trial account there. Most briefings are single threaded in nature. You tell the briefer (or via an online service) your flight plan which includes departure and destination airport, route of flight, altitude, duration of the flight and lastly, the estimated time of departure. You get a flood of data back at you and it might not look so good. What about 3 hours later? Or perhaps later in the afternoon? Maybe tomorrow morning? So you have to "hunt" using this time-consuming and error prone trial and error process that's been around for 50+ years. WeatherSpork has taken the time element and placed it front and center. I've said for years, I can teach you a lot about weather, but I'd rather school you on how to manage your schedule. We look at all possible departure times over the next three days and instantly lay this out in front of you so you can quickly see the ETD that minimizes your exposure to adverse weather. We are not an EFB. WeatherSpork is a tool that is complementary to the products you may currently use in the cockpit. We also have a training component as you can see from some of these videos, plus over 80+ bit-sized workshops within the WeatherSpork app that I personally created over the last 10 years to teach you how to recognize and understand adverse weather and the limitations of the guidance pilots use every day. WeatherSpork has the most comprehensive weather imagery available online that includes high resolution forecasts (at 15 minute intervals in some cases) to provide a situational awareness you won't get anywhere else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FastTex Posted September 4, 2018 Report Share Posted September 4, 2018 (edited) 6 hours ago, scottd said: Yes, you can go to http://weatherspork.com and click on Login and you'll be able to create a trial account there. Most briefings are single threaded in nature. You tell the briefer (or via an online service) your flight plan which includes departure and destination airport, route of flight, altitude, duration of the flight and lastly, the estimated time of departure. You get a flood of data back at you and it might not look so good. What about 3 hours later? Or perhaps later in the afternoon? Maybe tomorrow morning? So you have to "hunt" using this time-consuming and error prone trial and error process that's been around for 50+ years. WeatherSpork has taken the time element and placed it front and center. I've said for years, I can teach you a lot about weather, but I'd rather school you on how to manage your schedule. We look at all possible departure times over the next three days and instantly lay this out in front of you so you can quickly see the ETD that minimizes your exposure to adverse weather. We are not an EFB. WeatherSpork is a tool that is complementary to the products you may currently use in the cockpit. We also have a training component as you can see from some of these videos, plus over 80+ bit-sized workshops within the WeatherSpork app that I personally created over the last 10 years to teach you how to recognize and understand adverse weather and the limitations of the guidance pilots use every day. WeatherSpork has the most comprehensive weather imagery available online that includes high resolution forecasts (at 15 minute intervals in some cases) to provide a situational awareness you won't get anywhere else. I think you have earned a subscriber. However, I cannot find how to trial it...even after registering the website wants $79...do you have a promotional code I can use? Thanks! Edited September 5, 2018 by FastTex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dennstaedt, PhD Posted September 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, FastTex said: I think you have earned a subscriber. However, I cannot find how to trial it...even after registering the website wants $79...do you have a promotional code I can use? Thanks! Go to https://app.weatherspork.com/ You will see the attached screen. Then Click on the "Need an Account?" button to sign up for a trial. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FastTex Posted September 5, 2018 Report Share Posted September 5, 2018 Ok, done. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dennstaedt, PhD Posted September 5, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2018 Second edition for those interested. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robert C. Posted September 9, 2018 Report Share Posted September 9, 2018 That was a fun and educational series, thanks! Robert 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FastTex Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, Robert C. said: That was a fun and educational series, thanks! Robert +1 I built my favorites in the app with these videos... I would like to see more "simulations" to maximize the app utilization. @scottd, do you have more videos planned? Edited September 10, 2018 by FastTex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dennstaedt, PhD Posted September 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, FastTex said: +1 I would like to see more "simulations" to maximize the app utilization. Scott, do you have more videos planned? Yes, I am holding another live aviation weather workshop in the Houston area in two weeks...will likely do a similar WeatherSpork video series for that. I'll be posting these to the WeatherSpork YouTube starting as early as September 17th. I'm also doing a video series for pilots flying into the Las Vegas Cirrus Owners & Pilots Association Migration in October. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FastTex Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, scottd said: Yes, I am holding another live aviation weather workshop in the Houston area in two weeks...will likely do a similar WeatherSpork video series for that. I'll be posting these to the WeatherSpork YouTube starting as early as September 17th. I'm also doing a video series for pilots flying into the Las Vegas Cirrus Owners & Pilots Association Migration in October. Awesome! I think that's how we can best learn how to use WeatherSpork. BTW since I subscribed that's all I'm using for weather, really cool although I have still a lot to learn... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dennstaedt, PhD Posted September 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, FastTex said: Awesome! I think that's how we can best learn how to use WeatherSpork. BTW since I subscribed that's all I'm using for weather, really cool although I have still a lot to learn... Very nice to hear....but what is really cool is that what you see with the app is literally just the beginning...we have a ton of other features planned that will make the current version look pretty parochial. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FastTex Posted September 10, 2018 Report Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, scottd said: Very nice to hear....but what is really cool is that what you see with the app is literally just the beginning...we have a ton of other features planned that will make the current version look pretty parochial. I volunteer as beta tester! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yetti Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 It kind of looks like you are using NWS models. I have been testing windy.com that uses the ECMWF model and has been really good 4 days out which is almost impossible with the NWS model. For 1 day out windy.com has been within 15 minutes accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dennstaedt, PhD Posted September 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 (edited) 9 hours ago, Yetti said: It kind of looks like you are using NWS models. I have been testing windy.com that uses the ECMWF model and has been really good 4 days out which is almost impossible with the NWS model. For 1 day out windy.com has been within 15 minutes accurate. Windy is a tool that you can switch between models such as the ECMWF, NAM, GFS and NEMS models. I use some of the U.S. models because they provide a much higher temporal and spatial resolution than you can get with the ECMWF. Also, those models are used in products like forecast radar, CIP, FIP, GTG, etc that don't use the ECMWF. If you look at the ECMWF forecast right now for Florence, it is showing landfall at 12 a.m. on Friday much further south than the official forecast. The official forecast from the NHC is... Then the ECMWF has the track (remnants) headed toward Augusta, Georgia by 11 am on Sunday. The official track is for it to be in western Virginia by 8 a.m. on Sunday. So rather big differences in forecasts. The GFS now has the storm making landfall closer to the official location, but then stopping and moving northeast until looping back to the coast with a "second" landfall around Myrtle Beach, SC before heading northwest towards Florence, SC and Fayetteville, NC. Will the ECMWF be accurate within 15 minutes as you say? I doubt it - no model is that accurate or we would never use the other models. But only time will tell. Edited September 11, 2018 by scottd 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yetti Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 Yes good to document Florance to see. we can come back and check. I am 2 good and 1 missed on Windy. The July 4th storm that hit SE Texas Windy was spot on. It missed Gordon 4 days out, For the 1 day out windy is scarily accurate. Beats the pants off the NWC models. Since I am gulf coast Currently watching the X off the Yucatan Yesterday Windy had it at Bay City Today Windy has it at Corpus Christi NHC can only put it an X on the chart which does not help people plan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dennstaedt, PhD Posted September 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Yetti said: NHC can only put it an X on the chart which does not help people plan. I am not sure what you mean by this? They do more than put an X on the chart. Have you looked at their other guidance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yetti Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 OK X on chart and conditions favorable for development. And 1500 miles of coast line should watch it. There is a clean side and dirty side, that's an extra 750 miles of coastline worrying about nothing. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of disturbed weather located over the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. Ship reports indicate that this system is producing strong gusty winds over the Yucatan Channel. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Thursday night while the disturbance moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. If necessary, an Air Force Reconnaissance plane will investigate the system tomorrow. Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue over western Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robert C. Posted September 11, 2018 Report Share Posted September 11, 2018 On 9/9/2018 at 8:49 PM, scottd said: Yes, I am holding another live aviation weather workshop in the Houston area in two weeks...will likely do a similar WeatherSpork video series for that. I'll be posting these to the WeatherSpork YouTube starting as early as September 17th. I'm also doing a video series for pilots flying into the Las Vegas Cirrus Owners & Pilots Association Migration in October. ahh...Scott...you shouldn't have said that On Thursday the 27th and Friday morning the 28th some 160 participants (at least 100 aircraft I'd guess) will attend the Mooney Summit at KECP (Panama City Beaches) in the Florida panhandle. A fair few, like myself, will fly in from New England and the mid-Atlantic seaboard. Feel like doing one of these series for that group? Related but separate....We should connect you with @mike_elliott and @Seth who run the Mooney Summitt about getting you on the program next year Robert Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dennstaedt, PhD Posted September 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 19 minutes ago, Robert C. said: ahh...Scott...you shouldn't have said that On Thursday the 27th and Friday morning the 28th some 160 participants (at least 100 aircraft I'd guess) will attend the Mooney Summit at KECP (Panama City Beaches) in the Florida panhandle. A fair few, like myself, will fly in from New England and the mid-Atlantic seaboard. Feel like doing one of these series for that group? Related but separate....We should connect you with @mike_elliott and @Seth_Meyers who run the Mooney Summitt about getting you on the program next year Robert Not sure I'll have time during that week to do a similar thing. But let me see what my schedule holds. Yes, as long as there are no "life events" happening I may be able to do something next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yetti Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 A possible bringing the models together. This morning we have Windy.com starting a landing around Whilmington Friday afternoon. Moving down and terrorizing the coast and going inshore around Savannah Sunday Afternoon. Being driven down the coast by a cold front from the north. Which will be three days of suck for the East coast. Calling the exact landfall will not really matter since the thing is a big as the whole Atlantic Seaboard. The National hurricane center was not addressing the moving down the coast yesterday. Hopefully they will get the concept out there today. There is just a whole lot of suck ahead for the east coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yetti Posted September 13, 2018 Report Share Posted September 13, 2018 Looks like we are going to have to give the 2 day out trophy to European model. We will see how the night goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dennstaedt, PhD Posted September 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2018 37 minutes ago, Yetti said: Looks like we are going to have to give the 2 day out trophy to European model. We will see how the night goes. Well no. I’d call it a tie. Here’s the 54 hr forecast from the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yetti Posted September 14, 2018 Report Share Posted September 14, 2018 Me thinks the stalled front will be pushing it a bit further south before landfall. Or it will try and flip around the end. The NHC tends to forget that all Texas storms take a right hand turn just before landfall. I don't know what they do on the Atlantic Coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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