Icing encounter

[jaylw314]

This is a long post, but I'll try to keep it reasonable.  Have some popcorn if you like drama...

I officially achieved the dubious honor of running into icing (and surviving) when we returned from SoCal to Oregon.  We had planned for a long weekend and a return midweek, but when I checked the forecast, it looked like a cold front was forecast to come onshore midnight before our original return date.  That cold front would have essentially run down from OR down the length of California, so it seemed obvious it was bad flying weather.  The day before, however, the forecasts looked like great flying weather, so I made the call to leave a day early the night before.  My wife was sad, but understood.

I checked the forecasts the morning of departure.  I went over the G-AIRMETS, carefully looking over the icing forecasts for the afternoon, as well as the CIP/FIP forecasts.  No icing AIRMETS, and no forecast risk of icing or SLD.  I planned to simply follow V23 all the way north, and I was, as always, worried about clouds around the Siskiyous between Redding and Ashland, but the forecast was for clear skies in the region.  The only weather was offshore associated with that cold front--there was an icing AIRMET and precip forecast offshore, but I was not unduly concerned given that my route was 40-60 miles inland and there were no clouds forecast.

I planned to leave the day of in the early afternoon from Santa Monica, since it looked like there was a marine layer in the morning then scattered clouds after noon.  I didn't want to sit waiting for release for 30 minutes, and I wanted to take off VFR to pick up my instrument clearance in the air.  As it turned out, I arrived at 1 pm and the scattered clouds immediately turned into a low overcast at 600 AGL, so no VFR departures.  I got my IFR clearance, and, sure enough, waited 30 minutes for release.

The flight up the Central Valley was unremarkable.  Skies were clear.  I asked for, and got 8000 feet to take advantage of a great tailwind--30-40 knots from the south.  My groundspeed at one point hit 180 knots.  The forecast was actually for less tailwind up high.  All the while, I was checking the ADS-B weather for all the weather stations along my route.  All were VFR with clear skies, but off to the west along the coastal hills, I could see some clouds and precip preceding the front.  As I got north of Sacramento, I called Flight Service for any PIREPS on my route, and the only one was a Cessna reporting clear skies and no icing going over the Siskiyou airport at 7000 MSL.  That's a valley that runs next to Mt Shasta about 10 miles east of V23.  Unfortunately, V23 runs over the mountains west of the valley to stay farther away from Mt Shasta, but still at least 40-50 miles inland.

As I approached Redding, a broken layer appeared ahead above me.  It was hard to tell what altitude it was at, but it was thin and I figured I could fly under or over it.  At that point, ATC gave me instructions to climb to 10,000 MSL for terrain anyway.  At 10,000, it turns out I was just skirting the base of the broken layer.  A check of the temperature showed 34 deg F, so I didn't feel great about this.  I asked for and got a climb to 12,000 MSL.  At that altitiude, I was just skirting the tops of the broken layer and the temp was down to 30 deg F, no icing.  I asked for and got 14,000 MSL, and things were clear above.

Once at 14,000 MSL, though, I got a bigger picture as to the cloud situation.  Not only was the forecast for clear in the area obviously incorrect, but incorrect by a fair amount.  Not only was there the broken layer I just climbed through, but on top of it I had a solid overcast layer ahead, although I could see the terrain underneath.  To the east, the clouds looked a bit lower, and further east it was just the lower broken layer.  I judged the overcast layer to be just about my altitude, so I debated climbing to 16,000 MSL, or descending back to 10,000, the MEA.  Once I got closer, I realized even 16,000 MSL might not be enough, so I asked for and got 10,000.  

Back at 10,000, I was back in and out of the broken layer, but the temperature started dropping to 31 deg F.  At that point, I picked up some trace icing and let ATC know, and asked what the MVA was there.  He said, 10,000 MSL was the MVA, but just ahead of Fort Jones VOR, about 5 miles ahead, he could give me 9200 MSL.  By this point, I was quite nervous and was planning my 180 to bail out, and told ATC as much.  I could see breaks in the broken layer below me, so I debated (too long) cancelling IFR and going VFR underneath. 

At that point, I hit solid IMC and started picking up clear icing.  I'm sure in retrospect, that it was "light" icing--just some streaks of clear ice running back from the wing leading edge and frosting of crystals on the windshield, but that didn't make it any less terrifying.  Mentally, though, I thought 5 miles at my speed is 3 minutes, at which point I could get 9200, so I pressed on.  Finally, ATC cleared me to descend to 9200 MSL, noting there was a PIREP ahead of icing near Medford.  To my horror, the base of that broken layer had dropped below 9200 MSL, and the temperature was still 31 deg F.  I was in IMC, I was not shedding ice, and I realized with panic that if I wanted to make a 180 now, I'd have to CLIMB back to 10,000 MSL.  I'd just put myself into a proverbial corner.

At that moment, I broke out of IMC and into the clear.  Ahead, I could see solid stratocumulus at above and below my altitude.  Off to the east, though, I could see the Siskiyou valley, and it was completely clear.  I immediately cancelled IFR, asked for flight following, and let ATC know I was diverting east over the valley, which had a floor all the way down to 4000 MSL.  I immediately started a descent to 7500, and was rewarded with the ice rapidly shedding.  Once over the valley I turned north, and the full picture came into view.  I was literally 5 miles inside a bunch of stratocumulus clouds that reached in from the coast like a hand over my flight path, with a bunch of fingers reaching west to east that I had been flying through.  To the east, there was absolutely nothing.  Once past Ashland, the entire rest of the flight was in the clear.  I thanked ATC for their help and made a shaky but salvageable landing.

I reviewed the video of the flight, and it was pretty clear from the time I started picking up icing to the point of breaking into the clear was only about 5 minutes, but it felt like 5 hours.  Sure, I probably only picked up what amounts to barely light icing, but the possibility of it getting worse was terrifying.  My wife, to her credit, sensed my tension and remained quiet, but she could see the ice well enough.

Afterwards, I've reviewed in my head what I did wrong and what I could have done differently.  Aside from the emotional recriminations about putting myself and my wife in harmss way, I first considered ending my flying career and assuming I don't have the judgment to be a safe pilot.  After cooler heads prevailed, I considered buying a 252 with FIKI, but that would probably be out of my price range.  In the end though, these were my thoughts.

• Planning-wise, I checked everything I could.  Prognostic charts, G-AIRMETs, icing forecast, TAF forecasts, ADS-B weather and asking for PIREPs in route.  All of them predicted clear sailing and no icing risk.
• Unfortunately, I let the benign forecast lull me into a sense of complacency. I should have reacted to the situation more aggressively and decisively, rather than hoping conditions would improve.
• I had outs before entering IMC.  I could have stayed high earlier and asked for vectors around, I could have cancelled IFR and flown the valley (which I knew was clear by PIREP), and I could have given up and landed.  I figured the thin broken layer was a manageable risk, but couldn't see the solid IMC behind and above it.  If I had gotten high earlier, I would probably have been able to see the clear valley off to the east.
• I am clearly not good at judging cloud top altitudes.  What looked like close to my altitude was in fact 2-3k feet above me, and by the time I noticed, it would be too late to get on top.
• I wanted to stay IFR because I didn't want to get stuck dodging clouds while VFR.  In retrospect, I should have considered this the preferable option, because there would be less chance of getting backed into a corner.
• Light icing is terrifying and it should be.  I kept waiting for the sudden build up which, thankfully, never came.  At least I know now that I can stay calm and I won't fall to pieces.
• In the end, I pushed and got lucky.  Once I descended to 9200, I lost my out and had to hope the lower layer was still broken or scattered, and luckily it was.

I'm not sure where to go from here.  The Pacific NW is a tremendous icing factory, but if you scrub for any icing risk, you'd be grounded half the year or more.  On top of that, all the information indicated no icing, no precip and minimal clouds, until the point where I got the icing PIREP (which arrived at a most inopportune time). 

Feedback and comments are appreciated, even criticism--I know there's plenty to criticize, I've already been at it for the past couple days.  At the end of the flight, my wife turned to me and said "That was the most scared I've ever been, but at least I know what icing looks like now.  Let's try not to do that again, all right?"  Thank goodness for understanding spouses.

 

 

[wishboneash]

I have never been in ice, glad you made it through. A good learning experience no doubt! Thanks for posting.

[Piloto]

I am impress with your memory. I found out that the Mooney can tolerate ice pretty well but the speed drops. Something that may help you on your next icing adventure is to apply Rain-X for plastic on the wing leading edge and propeller.

José 

[N201MKTurbo]

Welcome to real IFR flying. You are not a virgin any more.

Personally, I would have canceled earlier, it looked like there was plenty of room for a VFR flight.

Great job dealing with the situation! 

[N201MKTurbo]

FWIW, good VFR skills will get you farther in those conditions than IFR skills. A couple of years ago I was in Portland about this time of year and it was time to go home. The ceilings were solid at about 1100 feet, but the satellite showed some breaks to the south. The tops were about 9000 with ice in between so no IFR. I flew down the valley almost to Eugene at about 1000 AGL and finally found a hole big enough to climb  through and spiraled up to 11500 and headed east across the mountains. There were clear sky's east of the mountains and the rest of the way home.  

Edited March 14, 2018 by N201MKTurbo

[jaylw314]

57 minutes ago, Piloto said:

I am impress with your memory. I found out that the Mooney can tolerate ice pretty well but the speed drops. Something that may help you on your next icing adventure is to apply Rain-X for plastic on the wing leading edge and propeller.

José 

There's nothing better for memory than abject terror!  I wouldn't suggest trying it as a cure for Alzheimer's, though... 

One thing I didn't remember until now is that as I started shedding ice, I definitely got some engine roughness that lasted for about 30-60 seconds after the wing ice melted.  I assumed this was ice shedding from the prop unevenly, but hadn't noticed any roughness before this started.  I definitely lost about 5 KIAS from my original speed once I got ice

I'm surprised you didn't suggest WD-40  

Edited March 14, 2018 by jaylw314

[jaylw314]

4 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

FWIW, good VFR skills will get you farther in those conditions than IFR skills. A couple of years ago I was in Portland about this time of year and it was time to go home. The ceilings were solid at about 1100 feet, but the satellite showed some breaks to the south. The tops were about 9000 with ice in between so no IFR. I flew down the valley almost to Eugene at about 1000 AGL and finally found a hole big enough to climb  through and spiraled up to 11500 and headed west across the mountains. There were clear sky's west of the mountains and the rest of the way home.  

I think somewhere in the back of my head I thought it would be more dangerous scud running up the valley than trying to stay over the clouds.  I think somewhere I rejected the accuracy of the PIREP from the Cessna of clear at 7000 because it looked so different where I happened to be.  Obviously, the reality was quite different.

These cloud tops ended up being something like 16000 or something, there was no way I was going to get over them, I was just too slow to figure that out.

[gsxrpilot]

I'm in agreement with @N201MKTurbo. I've been in a similar situation and I canceled IFR just to give me the freedom to do whatever I had to do to stay out to the clouds and the ice.

[jaylw314]

2 minutes ago, gsxrpilot said:

I'm in agreement with @N201MKTurbo. I've been in a similar situation and I canceled IFR just to give me the freedom to do whatever I had to do to stay out to the clouds and the ice.

Thanks, I need to get past the dogma I have in my head of "IFR=good, VFR=bad"

[N201MKTurbo]

There have been times when I was headed north to Portland and flew east of the mountains to The Dalles and then flew up the Columbia River to Portland. It keeps you out of that stuff.

Edited March 14, 2018 by N201MKTurbo

[Andy95W]

Along the same lines as Rich and Paul comments,  I'm reminded of something I heard along the way:  

-If it's bad, go IFR.

-If it's really bad, go VFR.

(And, BTW, I'm not sure I would've done anything significantly different than exactly what you did.)

[jlunseth]

Smart, that’s all I can say.  You saw the box coming and avoided it.  About a year and a half ago I was flying from AR back to MN, deviating somewhat to the west because of a large front with Tstorms that was to the east and moving further east, so I was behind it.  When I got up to Minnesota there was some cloud cover below me emanating from the front.  As I flew further, I initially just went up in altitude.  I have a 231 so I got up to FL200, but the clouds ahead were still rising and they were thick.  The problem, as probably everyone will recognize, is that the tops are where alot of the moisture is.  All it takes is a little dip for a few minutes into one of those things and you can get slammed. So when it appeared I needed to go up further, and given that the service ceiling is 24k, I instead told ATC I was going to make a 90 degree deviation, which turned into a 120, which took me in fairly clear weather to Des Moines, where I decided to land, refuel and rethink.  From Des Moines the rest of the trip home was uneventful.  There was room under that cloud deck.  But I hate to think what would have happened if I had soldiered on “just to check it out.” Same as you.  And here we are, talking to each other, what a delightful thing!

Edited March 14, 2018 by jlunseth

[Hank]

Thankfully I never found ice in WV or OH. Now I'm much more concerned about CBs . . . . 

My rule is still:  good weather, go VFR; bad weather, go IFR; really bad weather, go CAR.

[PDXBravo]

I'm based in the Portland, OR area as well.  Your story reminds me of the "IFR catch-22" prior to buying my Bravo (FIKI & turbo), IE: you need an instrument rating to fly in clouds, but anytime there are clouds, icing is almost guaranteed.  Prior to my Bravo (in a Grumman Tiger) my MO was to only fly in IMC above the freezing level and this is, as you know, virtually impossible during winter in the Pacific NW when the MEAs are well into the freezing levels.  As such, I wouldn't fly instruments and would quickly lose my currency and proficiency.  With the Bravo, I'm primarily interested in determining where the tops are (Cloud Forecast in ForeFlight) so I can get on top, then I only have to deal with ice on climb out and descent.  

BTW:  My experience with the Cloud Forecast is it typically understates the thickness of a layer.  In the Pacific NW, FIKI TKS and a turbo has increased the utility value of my flying 10X.  I can fly on all but the worst weather days.  I simply wouldn't consider an airplane without both in the future.

[ilovecornfields]

You made the right choice. I have a FIKI Ovation and made a very similar decision. Flew through that same system southbound (your tailwind was my headwind). That system moved in sooner than forecast and there were multiple layers with the perfect setup for ice. I ended up diverting to Oakland when things started getting worse and have never been happier to see the East Bay. Folks at Signature were great and ended up driving the rest of the way. Even with FIKI, in a single engine piston ice needs to be respected.

[larryb]

This is exactly why I bought my FIKI Encore last year. On a simple trip from KLWS to KTRK last summer I came across some unexpected weather enroute. Right around freezing at 14,500. In my J I could have done it. But I would have been low over the peaks. With the encore just turn on the system and continue as normal.

[Yooper Rocketman]

1 hour ago, Hank said:

Thankfully I never found ice in WV or OH. Now I'm much more concerned about CBs . . . . 

My rule is still:  good weather, go VFR; bad weather, go IFR; really bad weather, go CAR.

I’ll add one other option I use when I HAVE TO BE THERE ( when it’s really bad weather)........ airline.

Tom

[N201MKTurbo]

5 minutes ago, Yooper Rocketman said:

I’ll add one other option I use when I HAVE TO BE THERE ( when it’s really bad weather)........ airline.

Tom

Now that's crazy talk!

[Yooper Rocketman]

Oh, believe me I will fly whenever I can.  But for dealer meetings and other mandatory commitments, I will not hesitate buying a round trip Airline ticket last minute rather than put myself in an ugly situation.  

Admittedly, a turbo, flight level capability at over 200 knots, and TKS lessen the frequency I need to buy an airline ticket, but it still happens occasionally.

To be clear, I think the OP did a good job and will likely plan differently or upgrade to a ride more capable of the weather and terrain he must fly in.  That’s why I bought the Rocket to replace my F model.  I didn’t hurt that my wife was pushing harder for the upgrade than I was.

Tom

[jaylw314]

1 hour ago, ilovecornfields said:

You made the right choice. I have a FIKI Ovation and made a very similar decision. Flew through that same system southbound (your tailwind was my headwind). That system moved in sooner than forecast and there were multiple layers with the perfect setup for ice. I ended up diverting to Oakland when things started getting worse and have never been happier to see the East Bay. Folks at Signature were great and ended up driving the rest of the way. Even with FIKI, in a single engine piston ice needs to be respected.

Did you fly back on Monday too?  Yeah, it looked like the Bay Area was getting dumped on pretty good.  In retrospect, that should have been the first indication that the front was trying to come in earlier than forecast..

[ilovecornfields]

2 minutes ago, jaylw314 said:

Did you fly back on Monday too?  Yeah, it looked like the Bay Area was getting dumped on pretty good.  In retrospect, that should have been the first indication that the front was trying to come in earlier than forecast..

Yep, Monday in the early afternoon. As soon as I finished my oil change at Troutdale we took off. The front wasn’t supposed to move in until the evening but as soon as we hit Eugene I started seeing it on the XM. It was a pain to drive, but I’m glad I landed in OAK. My home field would have been at minimums but the time I got there. 

[Piloto]

6 hours ago, jaylw314 said:

There's nothing better for memory than abject terror!  I wouldn't suggest trying it as a cure for Alzheimer's, though... 

One thing I didn't remember until now is that as I started shedding ice, I definitely got some engine roughness that lasted for about 30-60 seconds after the wing ice melted.  I assumed this was ice shedding from the prop unevenly, but hadn't noticed any roughness before this started.  I definitely lost about 5 KIAS from my original speed once I got ice

I'm surprised you didn't suggest WD-40  

If the ram air inlet is open engine roughness is likely in icing conditions. Rain-X stays longer on the wing than WD-40. 

[aviatoreb]

1 hour ago, Piloto said:

If the ram air inlet is open engine roughness is likely in icing conditions. Rain-X stays longer on the wing than WD-40. 

I brush my teeth with wd-40 and I use rain-x in my coffee in the morning.

[Hank]

39 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

I brush my teeth with wd-40 and I use rain-x in my coffee in the morning.

I didn't realize you two were related!  

Edited March 15, 2018 by Hank

[Piloto]

27 minutes ago, aviatoreb said:

I brush my teeth with wd-40 and I use rain-x in my coffee in the morning.

Try MEK for your teeth, it really whiten them.

Edited March 15, 2018 by Piloto