Uber’s Pipedream

[ragedracer1977]

1 minute ago, N201MKTurbo said:

I must say they behave better than the human drivers....

They are more courteous when changing lanes (if you signal).

They don't spend all their time driving looking at their phones.

They go the speed limit.

They will yield to other cars in almost all circumstances.

They actually stop for pedestrians in crosswalks.

They never drink and drive.

They seem to notice everything around them. They never have inattention.

We signed up for the Waymo (google) pilot program.  With the driving we do, we are a perfect fit for what they're looking for.  If we get selected, they will give our family a car to use.  It would seem, from the way they talked about it, my 9 year old could get in the car and tell it to take him to the store.  There supposedly won't need to be a licensed driver even in the car.

 

[N201MKTurbo]

Just now, ragedracer1977 said:

We signed up for the Waymo (google) pilot program.  With the driving we do, we are a perfect fit for what they're looking for.  If we get selected, they will give our family a car to use.  It would seem, from the way they talked about it, my 9 year old could get in the car and tell it to take him to the store.  There supposedly won't need to be a licensed driver even in the car.

 

Hope they pick you Brice.

Can't wait for the report!

Give me a call I'll come over for a ride.

[ragedracer1977]

Just now, N201MKTurbo said:

Hope they pick you Brice.

Can't wait for the report!

Give me a call I'll come over for a ride.

If you're bored tomorrow, want to come fix my plane? I'll even bring you money and/or beer, depending on how you get there 

[flyboy0681]

15 minutes ago, johncuyle said:

You're not thinking of this from a human error perspective.  Driving a car gives you, personally, a lot of opportunities for error.  Software gives hundreds of people millions of chances for error.  Even though a lot of the technology behind self driving cars relies on machine learning, results from those trained algorithms aren't perfect and the learning process itself requires data which is marked up by humans.  Or data marked up by machine driven processes which has been trained using machine data marked up by humans.  With self driving cars you're making a choice between who to trust your life to, yourself or a few hundred programmers.  It isn't that the programmers are necessarily bad, most are very good, it's just that they're human and software provides massive room for error. 

Also, keep in mind that one of the major companies working on self driving cars is Google, and Google is an advertising company.  You going to trust your life to software written by an advertising company?  Hard pass.

I've been writing software for a living since the early 80's and am all too familiar with who's behind the code (including especially myself). Even a HAL 9000 made a mistake.

[N201MKTurbo]

16 minutes ago, ragedracer1977 said:

If you're bored tomorrow, want to come fix my plane? I'll even bring you money and/or beer, depending on how you get there 

I have a hike scheduled for tomorrow so that won't work. I can probably run over today.

[ragedracer1977]

1 minute ago, N201MKTurbo said:

I have a hike scheduled for tomorrow so that won't work. I can probably run over today.

Heading to my Grandmothers for dinner in 3 hours, so that wouldn't work for me.  I'll go poke around tomorrow and see what I come up with.  If I can't figure it, maybe we can work it out another day.

[N201MKTurbo]

12 minutes ago, flyboy0681 said:

I've been writing software for a living since the early 80's and am all too familiar with who's behind the code (including especially myself). Even a HAL 9000 made a mistake.

At least software can be validated. human drivers can't. I've been writing software as long as you have. I could write a book on the ways software can screw up, but to that point people have been writing books for centuries about how humans can screw up!

I'm not talking about our skills, I'm talking about all the other cars on the road. Every day I see so many other people doing stupid or inconsiderate things on the road. I worry a lot more about them then the self driving cars.

[Hank]

7 hours ago, N201MKTurbo said:

At least software can be validated. human drivers can't. I've been writing software as long as you have. I could write a book on the ways software can screw up, but to that point people have been writing books for centuries about how humans can screw up!

I'm not talking about our skills, I'm talking about all the other cars on the road. Every day I see so many other people doing stupid or inconsiderate things on the road. I worry a lot more about them then the self driving cars.

I've been dealing with software doing strange things for decades. Too many companies use the first rrlea3se as a debugging tool instead of paying their programmers to debug prior to release. Thank you but no, I'm not ready to trust my life to a corporate programming committee working hard to meet a deadline with a product that "mostly" works . . . That applies as much to the vehicle i drive as to those around me on the highway. No thank you!

And Paul, it's not the technology i don't trust, it's the programmers, their algorithms and their supposed "foresight" into all possible events that can happen on the road around me . . . 

Edited November 12, 2017 by Hank

[N201MKTurbo]

2 minutes ago, Hank said:

I've been dealing with software doing strange things for decades. Too many companies use ghe first rrlease as a debugging tool insgead of paying their programmers to debug prior to release. Thank you but no, I'm nkt ready to trust my kife to a corporate programming co  ittee working hard to meet a deadline with a product that "mkstly" works . . . That applies as much to the vehicle i drive as tomthise around me on the highway. No thank you!

Happy Saturday night Hank!

[Hank]

5 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

Happy Saturday night Hank!

Merely the joys of typing on a touchpad instead of a keyboard. I'm not sure the programming is exact, as I miss the bottom row of letters far too often . . . . When I touch a word to correct it, sometimes it will and sometimes it won't--more programming to not trust my life to.

My part was hitting "Submit" before I was through . . . . Then you quoted me while I was finishing. 

[Yetti]

I was thinking about automated planes.  It does not have a 135 certified pilot so does it really need a Part 135 certification.  There is no one for the FAA to hold responsible.   They don't cite the airframe.   And most of this airspace is in Class B to the surface.   Who calls for clearance into class B?

[gsxrpilot]

10 hours ago, Hank said:

And Paul, it's not the technology i don't trust, it's the programmers, their algorithms and their supposed "foresight" into all possible events that can happen on the road around me . . . 

We're way past programming here... it's machine learning now... try to keep up 

You don't have to trust it and you don't have to buy it yet. I expect most of us old guys on this forum will be able to drive cars as long as we can keep passing the driving test. 

But I'd bet my Mooney, that my son who turned 24 today, will not be allowed to legally drive a car on the road before he reaches the end of his driving life. Autonomous cars will have taken over and will be all that's permitted on the public roads.  Driving will be limited to racetracks and off-road.

[N201MKTurbo]

15 minutes ago, gsxrpilot said:

We're way past programming here... it's machine learning now... try to keep up 

You don't have to trust it and you don't have to buy it yet. I expect most of us old guys on this forum will be able to drive cars as long as we can keep passing the driving test. 

But I'd bet my Mooney, that my son who turned 24 today, will not be allowed to legally drive a car on the road before he reaches the end of his driving life. Autonomous cars will have taken over and will be all that's permitted on the public roads.  Driving will be limited to racetracks and off-road.

I doubt they will ever outlaw personal driving. It will probably become the exception. Think of construction and service workers who have to haul their parts and tools around. 

I think the business model wouldn't necessarily be the private ownership of self driving cars even though they will be available. It will be an expensive option. I think it will be fleets of Jonny Cabs using the UBER model so most people won't need cars to get around the city. I think most people in rural areas will still drive themselves although the cruise controls will get much better.

The model kind of falls apart for getting to work. There would need to be a large enough fleet to take everyone to work in the morning and then the fleet would be mostly idle until everyone got off.

[gsxrpilot]

8 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

I doubt they will ever outlaw personal driving. It will probably become the exception. Think of construction and service workers who have to haul their parts and tools around. 

I think the business model wouldn't necessarily be the private ownership of self driving cars even though they will be available. It will be an expensive option. I think it will be fleets of Jonny Cabs using the UBER model so most people won't need cars to get around the city. I think most people in rural areas will still drive themselves although the cruise controls will get much better.

The model kind of falls apart for getting to work. There would need to be a large enough fleet to take everyone to work in the morning and then the fleet would be mostly idle until everyone got off.

You could very well be correct. But as an example, there are lots of vehicles that were once common that are not allowed on freeways or limited access highways any longer.  I do believe we'll get to a point where driving yourself will be very unusual and likely restricted.

[N201MKTurbo]

Just now, gsxrpilot said:

You could very well be correct. But as an example, there are lots of vehicles that were once common that are not allowed on freeways or limited access highways any longer.  I do believe we'll get to a point where driving yourself will be very unusual and likely restricted.

The next decade or two are going to be interesting!

[N201MKTurbo]

FWIW

Every time I taxi out to runway 30 at KAVQ I pass a plaque on the side of the taxi way memorializing the death of a plane load of marines in a tilt rotor aircraft. A much more sophisticated one than UBER is planning.

[NotarPilot]

2 hours ago, gsxrpilot said:

But I'd bet my Mooney, that my son who turned 24 today, will not be allowed to legally drive a car on the road before he reaches the end of his driving life. Autonomous cars will have taken over and will be all that's permitted on the public roads.  Driving will be limited to racetracks and off-road.

I have often thought about this too. I highly doubt my 3 year old son will ever have to learn to drive a car when he gets older.  I too believe the technology will mature to the point that the vehicular accident rate falls to the point that lawmakers with outlaw or highly restrict human driving on public roads.  I also hold hope that autonomous vehicles will be a partial answer to traffic congestion maybe allowing cars to move faster in tight formation with one another.

Unfortunately I live in a state where our governor is so arrogant that he believes we should all ride trains and doesn’t want to spend a dime to increase our highway capacity.  We just got a huge gas tax increase but none of that money will go towards adding capacity.  I absolutely loathe that mentality of this government telling you what forms or transportation you should use and that your car is evil because it contributes to “climate change.”

By the way, this thread was about Uber and their flying taxi service in 2 years.

[Jerry 5TJ]

3 hours ago, N201MKTurbo said:

I doubt they will ever outlaw personal driving. It will probably become the exception.....

Perhaps it will be liability insurance companies who will be the de facto regulators.  

For a possible parallel: the FAA says you're good to go in my P46T with just a PPL and a couple of endorsements from any CFI.  The insurers are far more restrictive.  In fact the insurance companies  determine pilot experience requirements and training minima, not FAA regulations. 

I can certainly foresee major corporate entities forbidding their employees to hand drive on company business.  Just as they now forbid employees flying their Mooney on company travel. 

 

[bonal]

We have all seen amazing advances in tech but IMHO it seems the smarter tech gets the dumber people get. Don't know what it will require to get the airspace needed for a über air taxi service to be possible I think the first hurdle is already being addressed for the use of drones to deliver goods to people. And I've no doubt that if successful the GA community will be the first to go. As for self driving cars and the possibility that we will not be allowed to hand drive our cars well quite frankly that is a time I don't care to live in. And what would be the point of a high performance car. Companies like Porsche Ferrari will become irrelevant what would be the point of a Corvette or any other high performance car. And will I have to park my 1000cc sport bike. Emotion is falling prey to logic passion for things that stir emotion and the soul are becoming more distant. All one has to do is look to the arts to see this. Music and art and the like are suffering. We live in a world where safety is the most important thing and are willing to give up all manor of freedoms to save ourselves and our planet. Trust your government to take care of you. I'm glad I grew up in a time that the word virtual was not tied to reality. Self driving cars are just around the corner and as far as this old school dude is concerned ride in one if you choose too, drive an all electric car if that's what you want just don't tell me how to live my life for the communist good. To coin a phrase you you can have my steering wheel when you pry it from my cold dead hands. 

Take care

[Skates97]

1 hour ago, bonal said:

 I'm glad I grew up in a time that the word virtual was not tied to reality. 

Amen to that.

3 hours ago, NotarPilot said:

By the way, this thread was about Uber and their flying taxi service in 2 years.

Back to that original discussion, am I the only one that thought of The Jetsons cartoon when they read the article?

[mike_elliott]

On 11/11/2017 at 12:51 PM, Cyril Gibb said:

Who is liable?  The car owner?  Th programmer? The sensor manufacturer?  Before these are allowed, somebody will have to step up to being liable... tough call.

Nirvana for slip and fall specialists 

[gsxrpilot]

https://www.wired.com/story/embark-self-driving-truck-deliveries/

 

[Cyril Gibb]

Re: the Tesla fatal accident fallout...

On 11/11/2017 at 1:41 PM, gsxrpilot said:

This has already happened and it was shocking how it was a non-event with regards to the sales of Tesla's, news coverage, etc. While not in every little country town, but it seems that people are already accepting that autonomous vehicles are here and even with their flaws, they are better drivers than humans. 

I'd say it's too soon to predict public reaction to autonomous vehicle fatalities.  The Tesla driver was probably considered by many people to be a form of "test pilot" with the known risks associated with it.  According to the police report, after the car went under the semi, it continued through 2 fences and didn't stop until finally clobbering a utility pole.  In many urban areas, that would have taken out a few innocent bystanders.  I'm betting that the public reaction will be very different when the inevitable technical malfunction kills a few kids crossing the street.  We'll see...

With the current level of technology autonomous vehicles are better than some drivers but not as good as others.  I do agree that it will continue to improve.

[ShuRugal]

On 11/11/2017 at 12:51 PM, Cyril Gibb said:

Legislative/Liability:  When a self-driving car is sliding on ice with a choice of running over a bunch of school kids or hitting a telephone pole, which does it choose?  Somebody somewhere has to write that decision tree. When people purchase a self-driving car, will they be able to select either altruistic software (hit the pole) or selfish software (hit the kids)?  Would you buy a car that chose strangers over your own family?

I realise that some (many?) human drivers are even worse but it's clear who's responsible/liable for accidents.  Inevitably, a self driving car will kill an innocent person.  Who is liable?  The car owner?  Th programmer? The sensor manufacturer?  Before these are allowed, somebody will have to step up to being liable... tough call.

This particular "argument" always bothers me.  The answer is obvious: the car is going to be programmed to do the exact same thing a human driver would do: preserve the occupants.

If you can find me an actual real-world example of the following scenario of someone who is in a situation where there is an imminent collision between a car-slaying object and an innocent bystander, where they have the option to choose one or the other, and they are able to distinguish what those two items are, recognize the consequences of hitting each of those objects, choose which they would rather hit, recognize the actions needed to take to change the course of their vehicle, and put it all into action in the half a second they have before the point of no return is passed... I'll eat my hat if you can find a single person who *chose* self-sacrifice while running on adrenaline and instinct.

 

In those scenarios, you're lucky if you recognize one of the the pending collisions before it occurs.  If you not only recognize both, but are able to make a rational choice between them, then your reflexes are straight out of the Matrix.

[steingar]

On 11/11/2017 at 1:57 PM, N201MKTurbo said:

Come to Tempe. You can see them right now. They are everywhere. They are in heavy traffic with lots of pedestrians.

I have screwed with them with my bicycle and I'm still alive.

If you don't think they are coming you are wrong! They are already here.

Yeah, in the Zone.  I'd like to see them try that here, in the rain, sleet, slush and snow.  Good luck with that.  Hell, Zonie humans can't even drive worth shit here.  Then again, for all I know they can't drive for shit int he Zone, either.