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Something I noticed


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I always look over the NTSB databases when I get a new airplane (all three times...) and did so not so long ago.  What struck me was for my aircraft (M20c) with but a few exceptions all the accidents in the East were survivable, most without serious injuries.  Fatal accidents, nearly all of them, occurred out west or in mountains.

Haven't yet checked for any other Mooneys.  

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6 minutes ago, peevee said:

Generally considered a career limiting move.

We could write ad nauseum about how stupid people fly their airplanes into mountains, but the reality is that a lot of very good pilots in very capable airplanes have hit them. The bottom line is, especially at night VFR. do like a carpenter and measure twice and cut once. Most of the accidents happen because someone gets a little confused about where they are or take for granted that they are in the right place and don't check.  

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Proper flight planning and ForeFlight synthetic vision FTW ... I've departed some airports (Tracy; Santa Ynez) where on the climb-out (including downwind departures), invisible black terrain was a real issue at night. Between a GNS-530W with terrain (Arrow) and ForeFlight in my Mooney, non-events.

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21 hours ago, N201MKTurbo said:

We could write ad nauseum about how stupid people fly their airplanes into mountains, but the reality is that a lot of very good pilots in very capable airplanes have hit them. The bottom line is, especially at night VFR. do like a carpenter and measure twice and cut once. Most of the accidents happen because someone gets a little confused about where they are or take for granted that they are in the right place and don't check.  

Not to mention, sometimes there are waves and turbulence that grab the airplane and force it somewhere the pilot does not intend to go. 

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15 minutes ago, Antares said:

Not to mention, sometimes there are waves and turbulence that grab the airplane and force it somewhere the pilot does not intend to go. 

Well maybe.

I don't think mountain waves kill that many people. They can be very scary, but I couldn't find that many accident reports that listed mountain waves as a cause.

In most cases if the winds are forcing you into the side of a mountain, you can just turn. Maybe someone else can find more info on this.

 

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Some factors that may contribute to what the OP observed:

Much of the eastern US is flat as a pancake (Appalachians and some other ranges excepted, of course). Very little of the western US is.

Lower elevations back east mean lower groundspeeds for off-airport landings. The opposite is true out west.

It's hard to exceed a NA airplane's capabilities in the low elevations and predominantly low DAs back east. In Colorado, especially in the summer, it's hard NOT to exceed those capabilities. Yesterday it was 100F in Denver and the density altitude at Denver Centennial was nearly 10,000'. Many NA planes on the field couldn't even take off!

These are just my anecdotal opinions on the matter, as someone who has traveled all over the US.

Fly safe!

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I have to reiterate that this mostly happens VFR at night.

During the day it is hard to miss a mountain and easy to turn to avoid hitting it.

If you are IFR you are guaranteed to miss the mountains as long as you follow the procedures and you have ATC watching your every move to steer you in the correct direction if you go astray.

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On 7/6/2017 at 11:51 AM, N201MKTurbo said:

Yep, hitting the side of a mountain is bad for you. You should avoid it.

Steve Fossett immediately comes to mind here.  I can't think of a more experienced adventurer either.

If it can happen to him it can happen to anyone.

Know your performance limitations - especially at high DA.

 

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4 minutes ago, N201MKTurbo said:

 

If you are IFR you are guaranteed to miss the mountains as long as you follow the procedures and you have ATC watching your every move to steer you in the correct direction if you go astray.

Not exactly.

Lots of people depart ifr at airports without an odp and manage to hit something before they can get to the mva

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I once departed KRBG (Roseburg, OR) in my C, IFR. We were IMC before clearing the hills at the end of the runway and stayed IMC almost all the way to Seattle. You can be sure I knew the departure and was following it to half a dot!

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I have not looked at the data, but I can certainly imagine good reasons why.  VFR at night is an issue.  The airports tend to be some distance apart, so I'm sure there is more fuel exhaustion.   If you pick up ice, there is less room to get to warmer temperatures.  If you land off field, it's probably not flat, and a lot faster due to altitude.   And if you manage to survive, it might take a really long time for some one to reach you.  And then there are the folks that push the limits.  They fly in canyons and make a wrong turn and then can't out climb the terrain or turn around.  They fly into short one way landing strips. etc.

 

One stupid example is a Mooney (E model) a few years ago at Angle Fire.  From the ntsb

https://www.ntsb.gov/_layouts/ntsb.aviation/brief2.aspx?ev_id=20130303X91231&ntsbno=CEN13FA183&akey=1

METEROLOGICAL INFORMATION

At 1315, an automated weather reporting facility located at KAXX, reported wind from 250 degrees at 33 knots gusting to 47 knots, visibility 10 miles, a clear sky, temperature 47 degrees Fahrenheit (F), dew point 17 F, and a barometric pressure of 29.93 inches of mercury. Utilizing this weather, the density altitude was calculated at 9,549 feet.

KAXX and the accident site were located in a basin nearly encompassed by mountainous terrain. Mountains to the west and northwest of the airport have peaks between 10,470 and 13,160 feet. A weather study was compiled for the accident site. An upper air sound for 1400 mountain standard time (MST) depicted an unstable vertical environment which would allow mixing of the wind on the lee side of the terrain. Winds as high as 55 knots could occasionally reach the surface. Satellite imagery between 1300 and 1400 MST recorded a large amount of standing lenticular cloud near all of the mountainous terrain around the accident site. These clouds indicated the presence of a mountain wave environment. At 0322 and 1134, the National Weather Service issued wind advisories for the accident area that warned of a west of southwest wind between 25 and 35 miles per hour (mph) with gusts to 50 mph.

A Weather Research and Forecasting (MRF) model was created to simulate the accident's weather conditions. The WRF model indicated that the accident site at the accident time was located within a turbulent mountain wave environment, with low-level wind shear, updrafts and downdrafts, downslope winds, and an environment conducive for rotors.

The pilot did not receive a weather briefing and it is not known what weather sources the pilot referenced prior to takeoff.

Typically you don't get these sorts of conditions in the flatter eastern half of the country. 

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1 hour ago, gsxrpilot said:

I once departed KRBG (Roseburg, OR) in my C, IFR. We were IMC before clearing the hills at the end of the runway and stayed IMC almost all the way to Seattle. You can be sure I knew the departure and was following it to half a dot!

I kind of hate the odp system. Why can't they chart them like a Sid and make life easier for all? I have just enough automation to really feel a lot safe monitoring the plane in a critical phase leaving my attention to higher sure priorities than hand flying it.

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2 minutes ago, peevee said:

I kind of hate the odp system. Why can't they chart them like a Sid and make life easier for all? I have just enough automation to really feel a lot safe monitoring the plane in a critical phase leaving my attention to higher sure priorities than hand flying it.

Considering their similarities to a missed approach, it seems like they could be charted the same way.

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57 minutes ago, chrisk said:

I have not looked at the data, but I can certainly imagine good reasons why.  VFR at night is an issue.  The airports tend to be some distance apart, so I'm sure there is more fuel exhaustion.   If you pick up ice, there is less room to get to warmer temperatures.  If you land off field, it's probably not flat, and a lot faster due to altitude.   And if you manage to survive, it might take a really long time for some one to reach you.  And then there are the folks that push the limits.  They fly in canyons and make a wrong turn and then can't out climb the terrain or turn around.  They fly into short one way landing strips. etc.

 

One stupid example is a Mooney (E model) a few years ago at Angle Fire.  From the ntsb

https://www.ntsb.gov/_layouts/ntsb.aviation/brief2.aspx?ev_id=20130303X91231&ntsbno=CEN13FA183&akey=1

METEROLOGICAL INFORMATION

At 1315, an automated weather reporting facility located at KAXX, reported wind from 250 degrees at 33 knots gusting to 47 knots, visibility 10 miles, a clear sky, temperature 47 degrees Fahrenheit (F), dew point 17 F, and a barometric pressure of 29.93 inches of mercury. Utilizing this weather, the density altitude was calculated at 9,549 feet.

KAXX and the accident site were located in a basin nearly encompassed by mountainous terrain. Mountains to the west and northwest of the airport have peaks between 10,470 and 13,160 feet. A weather study was compiled for the accident site. An upper air sound for 1400 mountain standard time (MST) depicted an unstable vertical environment which would allow mixing of the wind on the lee side of the terrain. Winds as high as 55 knots could occasionally reach the surface. Satellite imagery between 1300 and 1400 MST recorded a large amount of standing lenticular cloud near all of the mountainous terrain around the accident site. These clouds indicated the presence of a mountain wave environment. At 0322 and 1134, the National Weather Service issued wind advisories for the accident area that warned of a west of southwest wind between 25 and 35 miles per hour (mph) with gusts to 50 mph.

A Weather Research and Forecasting (MRF) model was created to simulate the accident's weather conditions. The WRF model indicated that the accident site at the accident time was located within a turbulent mountain wave environment, with low-level wind shear, updrafts and downdrafts, downslope winds, and an environment conducive for rotors.

The pilot did not receive a weather briefing and it is not known what weather sources the pilot referenced prior to takeoff.

Typically you don't get these sorts of conditions in the flatter eastern half of the country. 

I remember that one.

About 5 years ago I was planning to ski with some friends at Angle Fire. It was a severe clear day, but the winds were howling, which is not unusual at Angle Fire. When I got over the first ridge past Taos I was getting tossed like a bug in white water. I said "Screw This" and turned around and landed at Taos. My friends had no problem driving another 20 miles to pick me up. Besides the beer is better in Taos. I swear that airport has the worst winds on the planet. Once I was there and there was like a 30 knot crosswind from the west at one end of the runway and a 30 knot crosswind from the east at the other end.

 

"A Weather Research and Forecasting (MRF) model was created to simulate the accident's weather conditions. The WRF model indicated that the accident site at the accident time was located within a turbulent mountain wave environment, with low-level wind shear, updrafts and downdrafts, downslope winds, and an environment conducive for rotors"

This is a normal day at Angle Fire.....

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