Ben E.

M20J Valuation

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6 minutes ago, bluehighwayflyer said:

For instance, since you used 10 years as a benchmark on three occasions, let's turn the tables around for a moment and assume that you have purchased and now owned your Mooney for those same 10 years.  Do you plan to now overhaul the engine and propellor and apply new paint regardless of their current condition?  Probably not.  Does this mean that you are deferring maintenance?  I would again say that it does not.  Yet those are your expectations as a buyer?  Why?  You also say that you want a regularly flown 27 year old Mooney, yet you don't want one that has been flown more than 3000 hours, or 109 hours per year.  What happens if you really enjoy your Mooney and fly it 200 hours a year, or only 50?  Should a prospective first time buyer pass it over because it doesn't match a list that he or she read once on an Internet forum?

Yes, if I have owned the plane for 10 years, then I would expect to not be able to sell the plane for what I purchased it for, unless I had tended to those issues.  If I buy this "unicorn" for $130k now, then in 10 years if I hadn't overhauled the engine (and let's assume it was still 600SMOH for pricing equivalency and the same total airframe time) and had not overhauled the prop, and I had let the paint go dull and get nicks everywhere then I would not expect to get $130k for it when I sold it.  If someone offered me $110k for that plane then I'd probably take it.  When engines, paint, avionics and all the other high priced items age, depreciate, and deteriorate then they should reduce the value of the plane.  

This 10 year benchmark isn't set in stone but it makes sense for a 1990s bird.  A nicely maintained plane probably shouldn't have paint, interiors and avionics that are 27 years old.  I'm not saying that a plane with 27 year old everything can't be well maintained and a good plane, it's just not the plane I'm looking for and it shouldn't be priced the same as a 27 year old plane with 10 year old or younger everything.  I'm not trying to get the latter plane for the price of the former plane.  I'm willing to pay for it.

Regarding the 200 hours vs 50, I don't get your point.  I want a plane that was flown regularly unless I'm paying a low end price, which is not what I'm looking to do.  Keep in mind that I'm talking about a 1990s plane.  My point is that if we say 75 hours a year on average is regular, then after 26 years it would reach 2000 hours and be overhauled.  Since we are on year 27 right now for a 1990, that would be a recent overhaul and fit my criteria.  If the plane was flown on average 100 hours, then the plane would have been overhauled 7 years ago.  If the plane was only flown 50 hours a year, then it would be 1350 SNEW and I'm not looking to pay a lot for a 27 year old engine that will need an overhaul soon.

These are just personal preferences.  I want a nice plane, not just a good plane. 

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Your reasoning is sound, I think we're just trying to enlighten you to the realities of the market. From 90-98, I think there were only a couple hundred J's produced so you've already severely limited your pool of candidates. There were more produced in '77 alone than in all of the 90's. I'll concede that as the J matured, it got many better features compared to my '77, but you can get most of them by the '84 model year. (I'm slowly adding those to my J, making my unicorn)

Depending where you live, you might have annual property tax based on the age of the plane. In KS, that goes away for personal aircraft that are 30 years old, so I avoided a lot of tax buying a 30 year old plane. YMMV.

I hope you're not as picky regarding paint scheme, interior design, etc. I'd rather do those myself to my specs vs. buying what someone else did and paying a premium for their tastes just because it was done recently.

You might need to settle for a nice, healthy horse and install your own horn. ;)

Sent from my LG-LS997 using Tapatalk

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Ok ill bite.   First of all, go to your local parking lot and try and find a 1990s car.  Now having found it check whether it is a nice sunny sunday afternoon, because it probsbly will be. Noone will take out their old perfect car in the rain.

 If you want an aircraft from 1990 then the interior WILL be tired unless it has been replaced in the past one or two years, the engine the same, the exterior the same and why do you need a gns430 etc.   Basically what you want is a "perfect plane" almost new, one careful lady owner etc etc.  As you KNOW from car buying they dont exist, so why do you expect them to in the aeroplane world?   You need to do what others have done and suggested which is to buy a "reasonable model", then "invest" money to make her yours.   First work out the mission, then choose the palne.  If you are serious ifr then get the avionics right before purchase.  Tanks can be fixed, paint and interior can be fixed ( at a reasonable price) .   Avionics are f'ing expensive however.

 An aircraft as you have described i would pay 150k for.  You can buy mine for 180 if you like (thats uk pounds)  

 

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There are a number of j's on controller that could work - most seem like nice options.

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3 hours ago, Hyett6420 said:

Ok ill bite.   First of all, go to your local parking lot and try and find a 1990s car.  Now having found it check whether it is a nice sunny sunday afternoon, because it probsbly will be. Noone will take out their old perfect car in the rain.

 If you want an aircraft from 1990 then the interior WILL be tired unless it has been replaced in the past one or two years, the engine the same, the exterior the same and why do you need a gns430 etc.   Basically what you want is a "perfect plane" almost new, one careful lady owner etc etc.  As you KNOW from car buying they dont exist, so why do you expect them to in the aeroplane world?   You need to do what others have done and suggested which is to buy a "reasonable model", then "invest" money to make her yours.   First work out the mission, then choose the palne.  If you are serious ifr then get the avionics right before purchase.  Tanks can be fixed, paint and interior can be fixed ( at a reasonable price) .   Avionics are f'ing expensive however.

 An aircraft as you have described i would pay 150k for.  You can buy mine for 180 if you like (thats uk pounds)  

 

I want/need a WAAS GPS so I can fly RNAV approaches to lower minimums, it can interface with an ADS-B out transponder, and because the non WAAS versions of the 430 are no longer supported.  I don't think it's unreasonable to want a GPS that was manufactured in the last 20 years if you're willing to spend six figures on a plane.  You said it yourself, get the avionics right before purchase.  That's what I'm trying to do.  I'm trying to get as many other expensive things before I get the plane as well.  I don't think that's unreasonable.  I get the point that several people have made that these types of planes are rarer.  That's why I have to be willing to take more time and spend more money to find the right plane.  To use your car analogy, most early 1990s cars can be had for a few thousand dollars.  But if you're willing to spend a few thousand more you can find the same year and model that has been repainted, had the interior reupholstered, have less miles on the engine, had a rebuilt transmission, etc.  

If you're willing to pay 150,000 quid for a plane that I described, then I will definitely reach out to you if I'm ever selling in the future :)  

VREF for a 1990 M20J with 2500TT, 500SMOH, KFC150 (I'd settle for a KAP 150, century 2000, Stec 55x/60-2, or something else without a flight director), GTN653 (they don't even value a 430W, which I would accept), and GPSS is $130,100.  

I know of a '90J with Aspen, two axis autopilot, newish paint and interior, and a recent overhaul from a great shop that actually sold for $125k and needed about $10k in work.

I saw a 1996 M20J that recently sold with a Garmin G600, 530W, 430W and great engine , paint and interior, that was asking $150k. (beautiful plane by the way:  http://flyperformance.com/aircraft/1996-mooney-m20j-201-mse-n9137u/)

I'm just trying to figure out what a realistic valuation is.

 

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Just to echo what @Hyett6420 said...

@Ben E., you talk about the pool being 116 Mooney's on controller (as an example). But you're looking for a J and there are only 25 of them. And since you want a '90's J, now you're down to 7.  The pool is actually very small. Which will mean it's much more unlikely you'll find the combination you're looking for.

In the end, if you're gonna own a Mooney, you're gonna make some compromises.  The secret to success in this game is to compromise on the right things and hold firm on other things.

I'd certainly hold firm on a good autopilot (and your acceptable list is good), and a WAAS GPS. I would not, however worry about GPSS as it's a $1500 upgrade. I'd also not worry about ADSB. If you've got WAAS, ADSB is a cheap upgrade.

I like your requirement for a regularly flown engine, but my preference would be between 500 and 1000 hours SMOH. I'd be willing to go higher or lower, but priced in accordingly.

I'll give you the desire for good paint, but I would not spend too much trying to get a recent interior. Interiors are not all that expensive and if you do it yourself, you get the look you want.  

Best of luck with the search... if you ever find this bird, grab it quick and don't let it go.

 

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I think a realistic valuation is up to you as a buyer you obviously have a real strong idea of the worth of these Mooneys so why not go find it and be sure to include lots of photos for us to enjoy. 

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Personally I would not worry about the waas gps. I'd look for the panel layout that you like and make sure everything else in the panel / airframe is how you want it. With the type of money you are talking about an upgrade would be no big deal.  I'd be looking for a 430 non waas unit. People are paying stupid money for some of the used gps units. I've upgraded my Mooney from 530/430 -> 530w/430w -> 750/650 and never thought I was wasting money. 

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Ben,

You are getting to the fun stage.  The last guy that came through with a similar thought process ended up with a very nice Cirrus...  speed and efficiency didn't mean much to him.  Fancy modern stuff was more important...

 

1) Realistic valuation is what both the buyer and seller agree to.

Nothing more, nothing less...

 

2) Ben, you will understand this better when you get to the other side...

Or you understand this already, but haven't found a way to lighten the attitude towards current owners...

 

3) I understand that you have plenty of money to by the plane that fits your mission.  Great way to start.  There are some here that are unable to afford your list of planes.

 

4) Most owners aren't professional machine salesmen.  Don't expect that they can be.

 

5) If you want to deal with a pro sales guy (I did), go see All American. They post fair prices from which you can try your best at the  negotiation game...

 

It's quite possible that I mis-understood where you are going.

 

What you asked for doesn't really exist.  There is no blue book of Mooney ownership beyond what is printed by Jimmy and David at the website Somebody posted.

 

6) There are various places to look for planes for sale.  Each comes with a different flavor.

- Trade-a-plane... a lot of normal owners selling their plane

- Controller...  a lot of companies that sell planes

- Barnstormers...  a place where a lot of projects can be found

- MS... a place where known owners sell their planes. (Get to know the owner)

 

7) Keep in mind people around here are trying to be helpful.

 

8) the plane you want exists.  It is going to be slightly more expensive than you want to spend. It is going to be missing at least one thing that you want.  Another thing is going to be more worn that is acceptable to you.   And that's OK...

 

9) Some first annuals are expensive.  Not all first annuals...

 

Don't forget the PPI and the TT... yes, they cost money to. You get to choose how much and to what extent.  Never is required.  They just make good sense.

PP thoughts only.  I sold a plane once...

Best regards,

-a-

 

 

 

 

Edited by carusoam

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1 minute ago, carusoam said:

7) Keep in mind people around here are trying to be helpful.

 

Definitely, and I appreciate all the input guys.  I'm hearing different positions from people here, which is great.  I'm trying to think through those positions and find the balance point of this collective wisdom that makes sense for me and what I'm looking for.  And I look forward to properly joining the Mooney community.

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Ben, See this post:  It doesn't have everything on your list like the age, 2900 lb gross, but it certainly looks to hit a lot of your bullet points.

 

 

Edited by Rmag

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40 minutes ago, Rmag said:

Ben, See this post:  It doesn't have everything on your list like the age, 2900 lb gross, but it certainly looks to hit a lot of your bullet points.

 

 

Lol, I knew someone would say something like this when I saw that post.  This hits a lot more points that I had indicated.  I'm not looking for something  crazy. As per my original post, I want a '90s plane with a 430W (common), functioning autopilot (common), and an engine, paint, and interior that were tended to sometime from Bush's second term to now (and with regard to the latter two, I'm even more flexible).  Really what I wanted though, was advice on valuation for such a plane.

 Also, no disrespect to the owner, but that plane is overpriced.  Having said that, I wish him the best of luck, it's a beautiful plane.

Now, if that 1996 J with the G600 was still for sale at $150k then I'd seriously consider it.  

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A 1978 J with all of your requirements just showed up in the for sale section.  

 

1 hour ago, JCD said:

For Sale:  Immaculate 1978 M20J 201! Newer Paint (9 out of 10), Newer Interior (9 out of 10), All Glass Avionics, New Engine, Low Time Prop! You
won't find a better value on the market for a pristine M20J 201.
This is a turn key aircraft with exceptional maintenance history. Fly 150kts True Airspeed at 8.7GPH ROP!! This Aircraft won't last long as you
won't find a better cared for and equipped Mooney 201 on the market. Last two owners have always hangared aircraft. Aircraft is in Arizona.

I am selling the Airplane to go to a high performance airplane. This is an excellent Aircraft that I have poured a bunch of money and time into.

 

Give me a call if you have any questions:  Justin Dyster; 480-254-7627

 

Complete logbooks and additional pictures available at: https://www.dropbox.com/sh/642e57qb1mcyy9l/AACoHGxIg6K0GVlRZSnqDPpQa?dl=0   

Trade-A-Plane: https://www.trade-a-plane.com/search?category_level1=Single+Engine+Piston&make=MOONEY&model=M20J+201&listing_id=2256517&s-type=aircraft

N33YZ_Spec-Sheet_3202017.pdf

 

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Just now, Garryowen said:

A 1978 J with all of your requirements just showed up in the for sale section.  

 

 

You're late to the show my friend.  See Rmag's post.  There are a lot of late 70s M20Js that have all my wants except the '90s airframe, no need to focus on this one.

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1 hour ago, Rmag said:

Ben, See this post:  It doesn't have everything on your list like the age, 2900 lb gross, but it certainly looks to hit a lot of your bullet points.

 

 

Sorry Dan - You beat me to it lol. 

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1 minute ago, Ben E. said:

You're late to the show my friend.  See Rmag's post.  There are a lot of late 70s M20Js that have all my wants except

Can't say we're not looking out for you (or at least tying to spend your money :D). 

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2 minutes ago, Garryowen said:

Can't say we're not looking out for you (or at least tying to spend your money :D). 

Well I definitely appreciate that!  

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44 minutes ago, Ben E. said:

Also, no disrespect to the owner, but that plane is overpriced.

I can see where he gets it though with the newer paint and interior and the three Aspens, and the engine computer, etc.  Not sure if the STEC 30 has the GPSS though.  He does have the 430 WAAS version.  He has some coin in that ship.

Edited by Rmag

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7 minutes ago, Rmag said:

I can see where he gets it though with the newer paint and interior and the three Aspens, and the engine computer, etc.  Not sure if the STEC 30 has the GPSS though.  He has some coin in that ship.

Keep doing your research and learning about models, years, equipment, avionics, etc... for example, an Aspen PFD will include GPSS by default. So if there's an Aspen installed, you can assume the GPSS is there also.

If there is no Aspen, and you find that GPSS isn't installed, it's actually a very simple and relatively cheap upgrade. 

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Just now, Rmag said:

I can see where he gets it though with the newer paint and interior and the three Aspens, and the engine computer, etc.  Not sure if the STEC 30 has the GPSS though.  He has some coin in that ship.

Definitely.  The GPSS is relatively cheap, so I'm sure he wouldn't skimp there.  I'm curious why he went with the Stec-30 instead of something a few thousand more with much better performance.  I mean overpriced in that it doesn't fit the price range that just about anyone would be in for a late 70s J, and there are newer, cheaper planes that show up on the market with similar avionics.

Having said all that, I do love looking at the pictures and fantasizing.  

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One thing is for sure, once you compromise and purchase that J, a week later the holy grail of great deals will go on the market  ;0)

Good luck with your search.

 

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Just now, dfgreene61 said:

One thing is for sure, once you compromise and purchase that J, a week later the holy grail of great deals will go on the market  ;0)

Good luck with your search.

 

Isn't that the truth.  

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An STEC 30 is perfectly fine for this class of plane, especially with WAAS and GPSS (which I have, I'm biased!) It doesn't require an expensive AI for inputs, and have extra boxes/wiring/annunciator/etc to maintain.

Sent from my LG-LS997 using Tapatalk

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Just now, KSMooniac said:

An STEC 30 is perfectly fine for this class of plane, especially with WAAS and GPSS (which I have, I'm biased!) It doesn't require an expensive AI for inputs, and have extra boxes/wiring/annunciator/etc to maintain.

Sent from my LG-LS997 using Tapatalk
 

Don't get me wrong, I think it's a great autopilot.  I'm just saying if I'm spending buku money on top of the line IFR avionics, I'm going to go with an autopilot that can couple an approach.

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12 minutes ago, gsxrpilot said:

Aspen PFD will include GPSS

Duh, I wasn't thinking there.  I was looking at the the Stec-30, and GPSS is an option.  

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