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Need go/no go votes this AM


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And the answer is... Too much low IFR even en route to KROA. Southwest for $404 round trip wins... I will toast you all from my 737 seat... *sigh* Thanks everyone! Sent from my iPhone using Tapa

If there is ever a question about the outcome of a flight, don't go until the question is answered. Better to be on the ground wishing to be in the air........

When I need to make a go/no-go decision based on uncertain weather, I say to myself "I'm gonna think about this over a beer".  Then I open a beer and after the first sip I say to myself, "Well shit, I

According to Marauder's weather pictures, Lightning detection is going to be good to have...

-a-

I was just going to post that as well. The stuff off shore is straddling the coast. Good chance some of it will make landfall. Having a StormScope would help.

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 How would you feel about fly to KROA and rent a car?

 

I used to fly my Mooney into ROA fairly frequently.  Over the years I got snookered by the weather several times.  The ROA forecast is often wrong.  I guess the bowl of mountains makes ceiling/visibility a tough call.  The terrain makes "selective routing" tough, so going around weather is not usually an option.

On the plus side there are a bunch of runways/approaches to choose from.

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I have used the fly/drive option a couple of times.  Even commercial flights with connections can leave you short of your destination.  I have three really strong memories from those flights. Two of them were commercial flights.  

Keep in mind that driving in some of that weather may be a challenge as well...

-a-

 

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$500 on Southwest completes your mission and you get two drinks either way.  But I agree with Carusoam, today may even give the airlines a reason to 2nd guess. 

I have used the fly/drive option a couple of times.  Even commercial flights with connections can leave you short of your destination...

-a-

 

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I used to fly my Mooney into ROA fairly frequently.  Over the years I got snookered by the weather several times.  The ROA forecast is often wrong.  I guess the bowl of mountains makes ceiling/visibility a tough call.  The terrain makes "selective routing" tough, so going around weather is not usually an option.

On the plus side there are a bunch of runways/approaches to choose from.

KROA is forecast 2500 ft ceilings, and is practically VFR now, would that make you trust KROA to go?

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And the answer is... Too much low IFR even en route to KROA. Southwest for $404 round trip wins... I will toast you all from my 737 seat... *sigh* Thanks everyone!

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Have stormscope. How would you feel about fly to KROA and rent a car? Only proceed beyond KROA if ceilings are 800 or better...

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It becomes a question of your personal minimums. As I mentioned earlier, I am okay flying over a 20 mile patch of below 1000' ceilings, but to fly hundreds of miles of it is a different scenario.

Anthony mentioned above in his post about a lot of good airports along the coast in case of an emergency. I tend to disagree with my esteemed colleague from New Jersey (too much of that politics thread). They are only good if you are dealing with a problem. If you are in a true emergency, where you need to get down now, I would rather have decent ceilings nearby than hope to stretch a glide to an airport with low ceilings.

It's a tough call, weigh your comfort with the weather and let that and your gut help you decide.

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Well done! A great mentor told me not to ever do something with gps, XM, or whatever gadget  that you would not do with out it. 

You'll be looking out the window of that 737 smiling at all the scud today.

"Drink sir"?... Yes please!

 

-Matt

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If I ever really felt the need to ask strangers on an internet forum whether or not to make a flight I'd scrub it out of hand.  If it isn't blatantly clear that the flight is within my capabilities I don't make it no matter what anyone says.

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And the answer is... Too much low IFR even en route to KROA. Southwest for $404 round trip wins... I will toast you all from my 737 seat... *sigh* Thanks everyone!

 

 

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FTW! As my kids would say. It takes a far better pilot to cancel a trip than it does to push their limits. 

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If I ever really felt the need to ask strangers on an internet forum whether or not to make a flight I'd scrub it out of hand.  If it isn't blatantly clear that the flight is within my capabilities I don't make it no matter what anyone says.

Here is the thing. It was well within my capabilities but outside my risk tolerance.... And these discussions are helpful for everyone that participated...

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When I need to make a go/no-go decision based on uncertain weather, I say to myself "I'm gonna think about this over a beer".  Then I open a beer and after the first sip I say to myself, "Well shit, I can't fly anyway because I've been drinking!"

 

 

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If I ever really felt the need to ask strangers on an internet forum whether or not to make a flight I'd scrub it out of hand.  If it isn't blatantly clear that the flight is within my capabilities I don't make it no matter what anyone says.

Sure, but then you wouldn't have learned the little tidbit about Roanoke TAFs often being wrong because of its location relative to the mountains. I filed that in the memory banks in case I'm ever headed that way. The board gives you access to people from the area with local knowledge, which I consider always useful. I know I learned from various people's views on what is acceptable (to them) risk and it helped me calibrate my own risk tolerances.

"Strangers?" perhaps, but many of us know each other from having met at events and/or through this forum. I don't see anything wrong with wanting to test your own thinking, especially with people who you know will care about the quality of your choices.

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Just curious, would a FIKI piston-twin have changed the go-no go decision for those voting no? 

I can't say as I don't have a twin. My recommendation was based mostly on the likelihood of completing the mission and the options if you could not. It looks like a lot of risk for not much reward. It was very likely that you would could end up back at home in a single or twin. There is a risk for engine failure in a single and widespread IFR does drive that point home for a single engine pilot.

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If there is ever a question about the outcome of a flight, don't go until the question is answered.

Better to be on the ground wishing to be in the air........

sums it up

the fact that you're asking for opinions tells me you're already at least slightly uncomfortable.

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