Need go/no go votes this AM

[peevee]

Just curious, would a FIKI piston-twin have changed the go-no go decision for those voting no? 

for me? out there, yes

around here, no. Single engine service ceilings too low on most twins

[Danb]

My decision was similar except I'm higher time pilot, I was to go to the summit and cancelled last night...I was influenced by Dr Moir ..wrongly..which hit home since I was at the AC. PPP..

i did fly out of crappy Kilg but north to Windsor Canada...looking back at the weather that was actual ..the trip would have been no problem..I took the safe choice since I had the word   If ..in it..

so im here 55degrees windy  vs. warm fla..wx..but alive

you made the correct decision because you based it on your experience not other folks experience..of which you will gain by doing what you did..analyze, think what could go wrong, chech.recheck..doubt yourself  on and on..But that is what experience is,,have an extra drink on your flight home

 

BTW  I am bummed to not be in Panama City Fl. 

 

 

 

 

 

[gsengle]

Ps the weather was as forecast but most of the flight (as witnessed from a southwest 737) would have been spent in the sunshine above ~6000 tops. Not much turbulence. Ceilings were maybe 600 on landing which was later than I would have landed... All about risk management and avoiding flying over widespread low IMC in a single...

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[Marauder]

Ps the weather was as forecast but most of the flight (as witnessed from a southwest 737) would have been spent in the sunshine above ~6000 tops. Not much turbulence. Ceilings were maybe 600 on landing which was later than I would have landed... All about risk management and avoiding flying over widespread low IMC in a single...

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Don't second guess yourself. You don't have a second turbine... oops you never had the first one.

[Robert C.]

My decision was similar except I'm higher time pilot, I was to go to the summit and cancelled last night...I was influenced by Dr Moir ..wrongly..which hit home since I was at the AC. PPP..

i did fly out of crappy Kilg but north to Windsor Canada...looking back at the weather that was actual ..the trip would have been no problem..I took the safe choice since I had the word   If ..in it..

so im here 55degrees windy  vs. warm fla..wx..but alive

you made the correct decision because you based it on your experience not other folks experience..of which you will gain by doing what you did..analyze, think what could go wrong, chech.recheck..doubt yourself  on and on..But that is what experience is,,have an extra drink on your flight home

 

BTW  I am bummed to not be in Panama City Fl. 

 

 

 

 

 

ditto, but both of you are a lot more experienced than I am

Original flight plan was to go via RDU to KECP. But I had changed my flight plan last night to go via WV and West of the Appalachians so I knew I'd be able to get there comfortably. What caused me to cancel the trip to the Summit was the return. With Joaquin on the way in and all the uncertainty about weather on Sunday and Monday I decided that discretion was the better part of valor.

Mike was very understanding...so we'll try again next year

[takair]

Sometimes that little voice in your head is right and you just never know why.  Really pisses you off, especially when you are driving under blue skies, but I'm convinced that sometimes that little voice keeps us around to fly another day.  

[Danb]

Rob

You are 100% correct!..right now I'm really pissed off, but my wife is on her vacation just another place...she would have been bored anyway..next yr. I'll try to plan it with another Mooney pilot.

 

 

[Marauder]

Rob

You are 100% correct!..right now I'm really pissed off, but my wife is on her vacation just another place...she would have been bored anyway..next yr. I'll try to plan it with another Mooney pilot.

 

 

I'll go with you. Just need to plan it out longer...

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[Hank]

Ya'll can start planning now, Mike's already listed tentative dates dependent upon availability of the FAA/USAF altitude chamber.

hope to finally meet you. Just leave your chicks in the henhouse. Funny thing is, my C has almost the epsame useful load as your F, at 969 lbs when filled with 5-1/2 hours' fuel.

[steingar]

Sure, but then you wouldn't have learned the little tidbit about Roanoke TAFs often being wrong because of its location relative to the mountains. I filed that in the memory banks in case I'm ever headed that way. The board gives you access to people from the area with local knowledge, which I consider always useful. I know I learned from various people's views on what is acceptable (to them) risk and it helped me calibrate my own risk tolerances.

"Strangers?" perhaps, but many of us know each other from having met at events and/or through this forum. I don't see anything wrong with wanting to test your own thinking, especially with people who you know will care about the quality of your choices.

If you need to kown about Roanoke TAFs might be good to ask someone about them.  That said, something I do miss about the old flight centers was the folks in them were locals and knew the local conditions.  Now its just the lowest common denominator looking at a screen.  Boards like this can be invaluable in that regard.

That said, any decisions about the flight are the responsibility of the PIC and no one else.  For that reason no one else's opinions of what is and what isn't flyable belong in my cockpit.  You of course may do as you see fit.

I posted about "strangers" with some trepidation, since I can imagine lots of folks here know each other.  But I do think the PIC should be able to make up his or her own mind about what to do.  Don't really want to be in the cockpit with someone needs second guessed.  Like I said, the second I think I have to ask the flight is scrubbed.  Never crashed an airplane by staying home.  Heck, I'm likely to drive 6 hours tomorrow instead of fly two because the forecast looks like liquid crap.

[gsengle]

As the pilot in question, who asked for opinions, I believe I made clear that I was PIC and was in no way abdicating any responsibility for making my own determination, and being capable of making my own determination. That I would make my own decision.

That said, it is a strength, not a weakness, to solicit other opinions. Think of it as crowdsourced CRM.

I didn't need the group's input, but I appreciated it, it was helpful, and it goes to the best in these groups that we verbalize these thought processes so that we might all learn from each other's experiences and knowledge.

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[WardHolbrook]

Hi!  Mooney Ovation, TKS, instrument rated/current, but not a ton of low approaches.  Was originally planning on flying from KBAF to KRDU today, across a bunch of crud into a region of relatively low ceilings.  Freezing levels above 13,000, might be able to stay on top for much of the flight according to PIREPS.  Some winds, but not much turbulence in pireps.  Convective sigment.  Do have adsb weather.  Don't like flying over widespread low ifr, however, looks like some of the area I'm going to will have 800-1000 foot, mixed with some 500 ft ceilings, but better rest of flight...

Would you go?  Take a look for me?  Why/Why not?

Please excuse me if I echo what other advice you may have been given on this thread. I haven't read all of the posts yet. Here's my take on it...

If you are not totally confident in your ability to master the conditions pertaining to any given flight then you have no business taking that flight, don't put others in the position of have to make your PIC decisions for you. Period. In the past, I shared a hanger with a retired Army colonel who spent his career flying helicopters. About a year or so before he retired, he got a chance to fly a C-12 (Military King Air 200). The problem was that he had enough rank that he was able to pick and choose the flights he took and he didn't like flying in weather so he didn't. After he retired he found a job flying a King Air 200 for a company in town. It was a Part 91 gig and he had all the training and time that their insurance company required so he was able to jump right in. The problem was that the boss wanted to go when the boss wanted to go. I can't tell you how many times my friend would call me late at night or early in the morning and ask my opinion as to whether or not he should go. I would always tell him that I wouldn't go under those conditions. (And if I would have been him, I would not have gone.) I even flew with him a few times to help him with his skills, abilities and confidence. This went on for about 3 or 4 months. One day his boss was out at the airport after his pilot had canceled on him; we were getting ready to blast off in the Lear. I was flying with a contract pilot who wasn't aware of the situation with the KA pilot. The pilot's boss went over to my copilot and started talking to him about the weather. My guy told him that it was plenty good. As you can guess, the guy's boss was pretty miffed and it went down hill from there for my friend. He was let go and they hired another guy with more "real world" and more applicable experience. 

This kind of thing also goes for pilots of larger aircraft. Several years ago I had just shot an approach to minimums in a snow storm at a small college town in the mid-west. After we put the airplane to bed for the night we walked into the FBO and were approached by the crew of a charter DC-9 out of Florida. (Not that being out of Florida had anything to do with it.) They were waiting for the college team to show up so that they could depart. Both pilots pilots looked to be quite young. They came up to us and started asking us about all types of questions about the weather, the departure etc. This was more than the expected "PIREP" it was basic stuff that struck both of us as being quite strange that they would be asking basic stuff like that.

I guess it goes to show that just because you can get though a check ride doesn't mean that you can be comfortable in the day-in, day-out operations of the license or ratings that you hold. If you've got any questions as to what you can or can't do it's time to address the "license to learn" aspect that I'm sure someone mentioned to you after you got the rating. Don't feel like I'm picking on you or singling you out, I'm not. Every single one of us has been exactly where you are at and have had those same questions. I'll tell you what I tell my students and the guys I've flown with - get yourself the latest editions of a couple of books: "Weather Flying" by Buck and "Instrument Flying" by Taylor. Buck has an entire chapter on how to get comfortable with a new or little used instrument rating. Read those books though - cover to cover - a couple of times. Take notes. It will help you. Finally, spend some time every 6 months with a CFII. Keep your skills up. Remember currency does not equate to proficiency. 

  

Edited October 2, 2015 by WardHolbrook

[gsengle]

Had you read the thread, I started with stating (third post in I think) that I would make my own decision - I believe I went out of my way to make this point. I felt this was a useful case study for the community given the complexity of the scenario. Moreover the discussion went to the difference between "capable" and acceptable risk which is an important distinction. I was *capable* and my aircraft was *capable* of making the flight. The weather was forecast above minimums with no icing. However, like a pilot whose fatal accident was also discussed here at length, flying a single over widespread low IMC is a risk management discussion. If anyone feels that I was in any way abdicating any PIC responsibility, make your case, but I don't see it.

Ps not that it matters but I've read those books been a pilot for 23 years, believe myself to be a careful and conscientious pilot, am instrument rated and current, including actual, and have many many hundreds of hours cross country. I completely concur that a pilot must be able to make their own judgement and that if unsure, it's a no-go. But I also believe these forums keep us all thinking and learning.

Pps I would have run LOP, in case we needed more controversy

-Greg

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[Marauder]

Please excuse me if I echo what other advice you may have been given on this thread. I haven't read all of the posts yet. Here's my take on it...

If you are not totally confident in your ability to master the conditions pertaining to any given flight then you have no business taking that flight, don't put others in the position of have to make your PIC decisions for you. Period. In the past, I shared a hanger with a retired Army colonel who spent his career flying helicopters. About a year or so before he retired, he got a chance to fly a C-12 (Military King Air 200). The problem was that he had enough rank that he was able to pick and choose the flights he took and he didn't like flying in weather so he didn't. After he retired he found a job flying a King Air 200 for a company in town. It was a Part 91 gig and he had all the training and time that their insurance company required so he was able to jump right in. The problem was that the boss wanted to go when the boss wanted to go. I can't tell you how many times my friend would call me late at night or early in the morning and ask my opinion as to whether or not he should go. I would always tell him that I wouldn't go under those conditions. (And if I would have been him, I would not have gone.) I even flew with him a few times to help him with his skills, abilities and confidence. This went on for about 3 or 4 months. One day his boss was out at the airport after his pilot had canceled on him; we were getting ready to blast off in the Lear. I was flying with a contract pilot who wasn't aware of the situation with the KA pilot. The pilot's boss went over to my copilot and started talking to him about the weather. My guy told him that it was plenty good. As you can guess, the guy's boss was pretty miffed and it went down hill from there for my friend. He was let go and they hired another guy with more "real world" and more applicable experience. 

This kind of thing also goes for pilots of larger aircraft. Several years ago I had just shot an approach to minimums in a snow storm at a small college town in the mid-west. After we put the airplane to bed for the night we walked into the FBO and were approached by the crew of a charter DC-9 out of Florida. (Not that being out of Florida had anything to do with it.) They were waiting for the college team to show up so that they could depart. Both pilots pilots looked to be quite young. They came up to us and started asking us about all types of questions about the weather, the departure etc. This was more than the expected "PIREP" it was basic stuff that struck both of us as being quite strange that they would be asking basic stuff like that.

I guess it goes to show that just because you can get though a check ride doesn't mean that you can be comfortable in the day-in, day-out operations of the license or ratings that you hold. If you've got any questions as to what you can or can't do it's time to address the "license to learn" aspect that I'm sure someone mentioned to you after you got the rating. Don't feel like I'm picking on you or singling you out, I'm not. Every single one of us has been exactly where you are at and have had those same questions. I'll tell you what I tell my students and the guys I've flown with - get yourself the latest editions of a couple of books: "Weather Flying" by Buck and "Instrument Flying" by Taylor. Buck has an entire chapter on how to get comfortable with a new or little used instrument rating. Read those books though - cover to cover - a couple of times. Take notes. It will help you. Finally, spend some time every 6 months with a CFII. Keep your skills up. Remember currency does not equate to proficiency. 

  

Ward -- I think your post is actually having an opposite effect than you intended -- at least for me. I like the fact that gsengle is asking. Tells me he is valuing the input of others to help him collect viewpoints of HIS decision making. Isn't that the basis of CRM?

It is the ones who don't ask that worry me. The ones who end up like the doctor in Delaware who ran out of fuel and died next to US 1. Or the 3 guys who flew up from Florida in an F and died outside Norfolk in low IMC.

As for the weather on the east coast it still is crappy and is only going to get worse as the hurricane comes inland. My weather station is showing 3 inches of rain since yesterday and it is still raining.

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[WardHolbrook]

I understand what you're saying and I agree with you but (there's always a but) whenever I encounter a scenario that begins with stuff like "Need go/no go votes this AM" and " Would you go? Take a look for me? Why/Why not?"  I have to assume the worst possible scenario. As I pointed out, I've had a couple of instances in the past where my concerns were justified. Under those scenarios I will ALWAYS default to "He11 no, you shouldn't go." It's not right to ask people to make PIC decisions for you and it's not a position that I'm going to allow myself to be placed in. And above all, if a pilot isn't up to competently making those types of decisions and competently flying his/her aircraft under those conditions they have absolutely no business making that flight and, if there happens to be passengers involved, it rises to a whole new level of negligence. I make no apologies for that position.

As for as my personal position of single-engine (piston or turboprop) IFR flying it's quite simple...

There are caveats associated with the operation of any aircraft. The big caveat when it comes to singles is when the engine quits on you, you will be landing shortly. Hopefully, as a result of good judgement or dumb luck, you will be VFR over survivable terrain because you'll be "up close and personal" with it in very short order. You can rationalize and play the odds all you want, but It's a fools errand to use statistical probabilities as justification as to how, where and when you fly any airplane - piston or turbine, single or multi.

It's about this time when someone pipes up about the safety record of our modern engines, after all they almost never quit. And I agree, but over the years I've had just enough engine failures to be very skeptical about using statistics to justify any type of operation. The only smart answer a person can give to the question "What are my chances of an engine failure?" is "Sooner or Later". Since we can't pick the time or the place of the event, I believe it's wise to limit our exposure to those places and conditions where one has little or no control over the outcome. A successful outcome - no injuries, not necessarily no aircraft damage - under those situations requires luck. I made a decision, early on in my professional flying career, to limit my dependency upon luck. Hence, you won't find me flying singles - piston or turboprop - at night, LIFR, or anywhere - hostile terrain or open water - that I don't have someplace to put it down safely IF/WHEN the engine quits. You have to be able to see in order to land.

It's pretty obvious what my position would be for the conditions given on that particular morning. I wouldn't go. Not with a significant portion of the route with ceilings between 500' and 1000'. If I was flying a twin it would be a no-brainer.  

 

 

 

[carusoam]

How does somebody get better at PIC decision making other than asking the opinion of similar pilots with similar machines?

How does somebody get their decisions checked before going off and doing something with less than perfect?

I applaud the OP for asking.

I applaud the community for allowing me to take part in the discussion.

I applaud Steingar for being part of the community and speaking honestly.

I probably find the opinion can be worded to not be so aggressive.  It takes time to fit in with Mooney pilots of all ages and experience levels.  There is no prize for being the best Mooney pilot.

This weather is really crappy,

-a-

[DonMuncy]

Ordinarily, I don't weigh in on discussions like this, but I think this is an important discussion. When I see responses that seem to say "you are an idiot for asking", I cringe, as it may deter others from asking questions. My opinion is that it is critical in ones thought process as to why the OP was asking.

If one is asking others to decide for him whether to make a flight, he is dead wrong. As others have stated, this decision absolutely must be made by you, as PIC. However, asking what others opinions and thought processes they use in making these decisions, is perfectly valid, and important. These are some of the most difficult decisions we face as pilots. I we waited until everything was perfect and presented zero risk before we made a flight, we would only fly on perfect VFR days, and perhaps never fly at all. The only way you can ever expand your abilities to fly IFR is to push your limits. However, pushing your limits beyond your capabilities is very dangerous. So the answer is; there is no real answer. It is an individual decision that no one can make for you.

So, no help at all. Push yourself, but very slowly and very carefully. Err on the side of caution.   

[gsengle]

Yes if evaluating the ask based on just the subject line, then you should rightfully steer clear of advising a potentially hapless pilot. And perhaps I could have worded it better, but I still think this conversation was a positive for the community. The details emerged as part of the conversation. Perhaps I could have asked others how they would look to "evaluate the scenario" rather than imply a "vote", but I did try to make clear that I'm PIC and all discussion aside, all inputs aside, it was my responsibility and indeed my life on the line!

I think hangar talk (that's what this is) can be a healthy way to help others to understand the risks that experience haven't yet taught them.

Re: the reliability of piston singles, I've had one engine failure where I glided to a runway in a rental Arrow in 1995 (required overhaul but never got the full details), another emergency landing where a piston stopped firing for an unknown reason in my Arrow around 2010 (spalled intake valve lifter caused early overhaul) and then a emergency/precautionary landing with a clogged injector/dead cylinder in cruise in my Ovation. I tell everyone who will listen that time spent over low IMC in a single is rolling the dice (or for that matter on a moonless night), and from a risk management point of view unacceptable to me, as I always want at least one if not more "outs". Most of my go/no go thought process boiled down to interpreting ceilings (I usually want to see mostly 1000) and understanding whether I could even get part of the way and rent a car (VFR at origin)

It's just reality that capability is not the same thing as acceptable risk, and we should keep them both in mind. One says can I do this safely. The other says will it still have a reasonable chance of a good outcome should the feces hit the fan. As wonderful as our machines are, they aren't jets with multiple engines, pressurization, etc etc. -Greg

PS our machines do glide well so by going up highish in the northeast, I can almost always glide to a runway or interstate.

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[Danb]

 

Anthony well said, now I need to work on my grammar to respond in a clear and concise manner.

Ward your obviously are a very experienced pilot and your response was based on Greg using the forum to decide whether to go or not. Greg mentioned many times he wanted opinions from some more experienced pilots to ascertain if his decision making abilities are concrete and how he could use the opinions of  the forum in the future. 

You mentioned he should read the two great books most of us have read, he stated has also has read them. That was a way you gathered some of your knowledge and inserted it into your personal memory bank exactly what he is doing by asking the question for our opinions in an effort to become a better pilot.

There's to much bashing and not enough help in this world, I only hope it doesn't infest this forum, as it apparently has.

 

Edited October 3, 2015 by Danb