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Need go/no go votes this AM


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Hi!  Mooney Ovation, TKS, instrument rated/current, but not a ton of low approaches.  Was originally planning on flying from KBAF to KRDU today, across a bunch of crud into a region of relatively low ceilings.  Freezing levels above 13,000, might be able to stay on top for much of the flight according to PIREPS.  Some winds, but not much turbulence in pireps.  Convective sigment.  Do have adsb weather.  Don't like flying over widespread low ifr, however, looks like some of the area I'm going to will have 800-1000 foot, mixed with some 500 ft ceilings, but better rest of flight...

Would you go?  Take a look for me?  Why/Why not?

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Agreed, and anyone posting their opinion, know that I'll make my own judgement, just want other opinions, partially as a learning experience... Just hate to turn 2.5 hour flight into 12 hour drive.... But I will if need be.

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Greg,

i was going today to the Mooney Summit and planned a lunch stop just past KRDU (at KHRJ). Last night I changed the route to go West of the Appalachian mountains for the very reason you are now (re)considering your options.

just this morning I cancelled my trip because I don't want to deal with Joaquin on the way back onSunday or Monday.

good luck, and fly safe.

robert

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Hi!  Mooney Ovation, TKS, instrument rated/current, but not a ton of low approaches.  Was originally planning on flying from KBAF to KRDU today, across a bunch of crud into a region of relatively low ceilings.  Freezing levels above 13,000, might be able to stay on top for much of the flight according to PIREPS.  Some winds, but not much turbulence in pireps.  Convective sigment.  Do have adsb weather.  Don't like flying over widespread low ifr, however, looks like some of the area I'm going to will have 800-1000 foot, mixed with some 500 ft ceilings, but better rest of flight...

Would you go?  Take a look for me?  Why/Why not?

I took a brief look at this morning. The departure decision is not so hard. Weather looks good at the departure airport. But you have low ceilings (IFR or LIFR) on the 2nd half of your route and it is not expected to improve all day. Your options if you can't get into your destination don't look that great. Mountains to the west, ocean to the east and low ceilings across most of the region. The best alternative would be too far to be practical, or back to home. Seems like an exercise of futility. I would scrub the mission. It's possible but Southwest has a flight that can get you in by 2:00pm. Better. 

Edited by PMcClure
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On the other thread I posted the east coast pictures with the ceilings. I also pulled up the TAFs for you route. It is a lot of IFR along the coastal route. The TAFs show increasing surface winds later as well and not much improvement throughout the day.

Personally for me, it would be a wait and see with a strong lean towards a no go. Knowing old Joaquin is headed through our area also poses the question can you wait him out later this weekend?

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Anyone see where my post landed?

it didn't show up here...

-a-

now here is what I was thinking.... (Found the post and moved back here)

I looked. (WingX delivered weather)

What I see...

First half of the trip has VFR, but bands of rain continue in the direction of your flight.

Second half of the trip has low ceilings everywhere around KRDU.  Current Wind speeds are not very fast.  The weather will be changing with time...

What time will you be departing?

My concerns are probably different than yours.  

I prefer flying at high altitudes to add long gliding distance to the tool box. The East coast is full of airports in the event of emergency. Adjusting your flight plan to be more safe and less efficient may help relieve some stress...

I like ceilings above 1k' for the ability of setting up an off field landing that does not include houses.

Flying a FIKI O Is as good a tool as any.

Monitoring the weather on ADSB will show where the rain showers are at and the direction they are going.

With my lack of IFR currency, I would prefer not landing in those bands of rain. They are currently showing brighter colors than garden variety greens.

What is your plan B?

best regards,

-a-

 

Edited by carusoam
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They have hangar space at rdu as of now so I'm not worried about being there but yes I could have trouble getting back. Unfortunately I have to be there by 7am tomorrow, so if I don't fly I'll go commercial or drive :-o

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They have hangar space at rdu as of now so I'm not worried about being there but yes I could have trouble getting back. Unfortunately I have to be there by 7am tomorrow, so if I don't fly I'll go commercial or drive :-o

 

 

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The "have to be there" would be the final reason I would scrub the mission and drive or fly commercial. 

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The nice thing about KRDU is that its a big towered airport with several different approaches including the ILS approach, but you may have a problem identifying an alternate with 600 or 800 ft ceilings.

The main/other principal risk factor is the lack of options if something goes wrong. With such a wide swath in deep IFR conditions I chose to avoid the dilemma but appreciate you don't have that option as KRDU is your destination.

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So I'd probably file 10k feet and would depart at maybe 10am. Yes lots of glide options... I can put six hours of fuel on board... Plan b is return to origin and drive or catch commercial flight (or do this in the first place).

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Posting this kind of question tells me you have already made your decision its a no go. Take a commercial flight and arrive stress free. Even if you made the flight there would be so many things that would have you ramped up on your alert meter you would not really benefit much by making the flight yourself.

I am a VFR only guy so I don't know much. IFR makes you a better pilot but also make decision making more complex. If you GO  I wish you a safe journey 

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So I'd probably file 10k feet and would depart at maybe 10am. Yes lots of glide options... I can put six hours of fuel on board... Plan b is return to origin and drive or catch commercial flight (or do this in the first place).

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I think what would influence my decision the most is the widespread nature of what you are looking at. The "out" options become a lot less. A more westerly route takes you away from all that.

The second thing would be the uncertainty of the incoming storm. If you need to be back Monday, it will be in our area around the same time. It isn't a passing front, it is a Stage 3 hurricane will mean there may be a good 24 hours of disruption.

Mooneymite has it right...

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With an airplane that gives you plenty options such as the ability to climb high, and the fuel to turn around and go home, I'd go. I would just make sure I have good alternates, and several of them, along with the option to climb high and go home.

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If icing were possible even with FIKI it would add one too many factors for today, but icing is up at 13,000 and above... Also an approach to 500 or 600 is no big deal. I'm just recalling the crash outside Boston not too long ago with an approach in low IFR, not enough ceiling below to pick a landing spot when the engine failed...

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If icing were possible even with FIKI it would add one too many factors for today, but icing is up at 13,000 and above... Also an approach to 500 or 600 is no big deal. I'm just recalling the crash outside Boston not too long ago with an approach in low IFR, not enough ceiling below to pick a landing spot when the engine failed...

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That exactly the challenge with a widespread area of IFR conditions. I gave up flying over extended areas with less than 1000' ceilings. I'll take my chances over 20 miles of low conditions, but not 1000 miles of it.

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