Weather Decisions

[Oldguy]

Be careful here. Human nature is funny sometimes. If I'm are having some doubts, I text Joe. Joe, not wanting to look like a wimp, says it will probably OK. I don't want to be a bigger wimp than Joe, say I say I think it is OK too. So, we have both talked each other into something neither of us really feel good about.

Can't say that would never happen, but the guys have seen enough in our years to know pride and ego lead to problems in most every situation. Between SAR diving, emergency room traumas, Middle East operations and other life experiences, the four of us all know folks who made bad decisions or took incorrect information and made a life-altering decision. We have also been around to see the effect on those left behind. More often than not, our communications lead to flights being cancelled rather than affirming to go.

 

John

[Marauder]

I'm too green to have done this yet in aviation- but I can see it happening to me.  I've definitely fallen into this trap in other spheres, with deep regret.  The worst variant is when the person from whom you're seeking advice doesn't have as much at stake. Not hard to sound experienced and courageous when it's not your ass on the line...

I created a saying that I apply to aviation weather decisions; "Only a fool will ask a fool when it comes to foolish weather decisions". When I obtained my IR, I set personal minimums based on my 3Cs. It wasn't long before the older fools at my airport would comment about my conservative decision making. One of these idiots, I mean fools, was the same fool who flew a homemade NDB approach that took him over the road next to the airport. He survived.

What I have learned to do over the years is to develop a network of people who I trust for input to my decision-making. The final decision and I mean it could be my final decision, is mine to make. And if I find myself asking too many people for input, it should be a factor in the decision not to go.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[1964-M20E]

This past Friday I was supposed to fly with two friends from LS40 and KBTR to KSHV.  The weather was not cooperating so I canceled Thursday afternoon.  They needed to be there for a meeting I did not and both were happy with my decision.

When I woke up Friday morning there were thunderstorms were in the area and light to moderate precip.  That afternoon looking at the weather it would have been OK to get home but getting there would have been "fun" but isn't getting there half the fun anyway.

[Ftlausa]

The NexRad and ForeFlight colors can be very deceiving.  Yesterday I flew through multiple areas of yellow -- some were very light rain and a smooth ride, in other it was heavy rain and unpleasant turbulence.  I also agree that you have to keep an eye on the trend.  Green can go to red pretty fast.  Red is a rough ride.  

  

[flyboy0681]

Even the images on Flightaware can't be trusted. Here is my flight to the Bahamas, the arc that I took to join the airway was to avoid a huge buildup, yet it appears way south of my track in this image. The cloud formation was really closer to the top of the "3".

 

 

[Yetti]

If these two phrases are thought or said "it should be OK when this and that happen"  "we should be fine"   It is now a no go.  I have tested this new approach several times and it seems to work out pretty well.

 

[Robert C.]

I have found that learning how to use the skew-T chart very helpful with my weather decisions. This can tell you, relatively accurately, what the cloud tops are likely to be, what the real freezing level is, and winds. So for example, if the freezing level is 9,000 but the tops are only 5,000, I'm much more likely to go. 

http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/

Larry

back to the topic of whether you can out-climb the predicted rain: here is another really useful skew-T page that allows you to gauge ceilings and tops along your route: http://skewt.meteor.com/

 

[WardHolbrook]

When it comes to aviation weather training you can't do any better than this: https://avwxworkshops.com/index_guest.php

As far as book learn'n goes it's pretty hart to beat these two - Weather Flying by Robert Buck and Instrument Flying by Richard Taylor. You'll want the most recent editions of both books. They're available on Amazon.  

 

[Ned Gravel]

back to the topic of whether you can out-climb the predicted rain: here is another really useful skew-T page that allows you to gauge ceilings and tops along your route: http://skewt.meteor.com/

 

I use these too.  They do a really good job of pointing out where cloud tops will be an any point along the intended route of flight and do so for a three or four hour window.  For example, if a forecast shows moderate precipitation along the route, but the tops are no higher than 12,000' or so, I will not worry too much about the precip.  I do not really use them for the departure or destination because those are terminal environments with different wx criteria for me.

[1964-M20E]

Even the images on Flightaware can't be trusted. Here is my flight to the Bahamas, the arc that I took to join the airway was to avoid a huge buildup, yet it appears way south of my track in this image. The cloud formation was really closer to the top of the "3".

 

 

I have experienced this as well.

Keep in mind radar shows the rain is not where the clouds are building up.

 

I don't always fly but when I do, I fly safe.

Fly safe my friend.

 

 

 

 

[Yetti]

My understanding of FlightAware is that they snapshot the weather at the beginning of your track, or the end of the track, or some other random time.

[marks]

Remember, what you see, is what is there right now (maybe).  What you will get is what develops when you get there.  My flying involved hundreds of flights every day to commute from island to mainland and the flights were only twenty minutes or less.  So I have many hundreds of instrument approaches in serious fog, but I never got used to flying hundreds of miles crossing cold fronts.  If you create a record of being too careful over many years you have a great record. If you think that the chance of having serious problems is less than one chance in a hundred, then you can expect to have serious problems if you do that something hundreds of times.

[WardHolbrook]

Remember, what you see, is what is there right now (maybe).  What you will get is what develops when you get there.  My flying involved hundreds of flights every day to commute from island to mainland and the flights were only twenty minutes or less.  So I have many hundreds of instrument approaches in serious fog, but I never got used to flying hundreds of miles crossing cold fronts.  If you create a record of being too careful over many years you have a great record. If you think that the chance of having serious problems is less than one chance in a hundred, then you can expect to have serious problems if you do that something hundreds of times.

Yes sir, when it comes to experience there is a huge difference between 1000 hours of experience and one hour of experience repeated 1000 times.  

[kortopates]

My understanding of FlightAware is that they snapshot the weather at the beginning of your track, or the end of the track, or some other random time.

FlightAware's weather should not be a mystery. For completed flights, the weather picture is from the approx middle time period of flight and the data stamp in the bottom right hand corner tells you precisely. So historically, only the middle of the flight will reflect the  weather you experienced. For a flight in progress, not yet completed, its the current weather with the usual delays.
See the weather stamp in the example below:

[M016576]

As a relatively newly minted instrument pilot myself (February, 2014), I'm also very conservative and won't venture out yet into anything that is forecasted to be near minimums. I'm very comfortable flying in IMC (and really enjoy it), but when it's really bumpy I get uncomfortable, fearing I'll somehow get myself into something that I can't get out of. So the long and short of it is that while I'm still conservative, I push myself a little bit more each time so that I can get to the point where I'm ready for anything that may come my way. 

the only people that really enjoy flying IMC are the ones that haven't scared themselves yet.  There will come a day, though... I promise!  

 

Same goes for flying in low illum. At night.

[DonMuncy]

Flying "in" IMC is easy and not particularly scary. Flying up into the clouds gives me a few seconds of near panic until I get acclimated. Flying down out of the clouds is not too bad until I get to about 1000 AGL, and then the pucker factor keeps going up until I break out.

[M016576]

Flying "in" IMC is easy and not particularly scary. Flying up into the clouds gives me a few seconds of near panic until I get acclimated. Flying down out of the clouds is not too bad until I get to about 1000 AGL, and then the pucker factor keeps going up until I break out.

yeah... But would you ever say that you "really enjoy" flying in IMC?  

I get a sense of satisfaction after I've landed on a particularly challenging day, but I can't say that I've enjoyed flying in IMC in over a decade.  Give me a nice CAVU VFR flight- that I can enjoy... Unless I'm having mechanical problems.  I guess that's the price you pay for being paid to fly- sometimes you don't really have a choice.

[WardHolbrook]

I've got a couple of thousand hours of actual IFR and there comes a point when - IMC or VMC, Day or Night - it makes no difference it's just flying. I actually prefer IMC because it tends to keep the "less proficient" among us on the ground in conditions where being on your A game is really required. As far as enjoyment goes, after all of these years I still enjoy every moment in the air - whatever the conditions.   

[M016576]

I've got a couple of thousand hours of actual IFR and there comes a point when - IMC or VMC, Day or Night - it makes no difference it's just flying. I actually prefer IMC because it tends to keep the "less proficient" among us on the ground in conditions where being on your A game is really required. As far as enjoyment goes, after all of these years I still enjoy every moment in the air - whatever the conditions.   

I wish I had that sort of passion for all things flight.  When I'm sitting in the ready room after briefing and know I'm getting ready to go fly intercepts at night in IMC through icing conditions, and know that not only will the administrative actions of just getting to and from the airspace will be higher risk, let alone the intercepts with a new student, it feels like anything but "just flying." It's not the "all systems go" bit that worries me, it's when my systems start failing (and I constantly evaluate that in my mind, as well as reevaluate my risk level realtime)... I guess I had a few "bad luck" moments early in my career that leave me pretty conservative, but that's for another thread. I've got about 1000hrs of IMC, much of it horizon-less nights over the ocean in stratus and CB type weather (Navy pilot for 10 years... Go figure... But at least mountains arnt much of a problem!).  I'll take the VMC daytime any day over IMC- particularly if I can control it, and if I'm flying a single engine prop as opposed to a twin engine jet.  That said, I did end up trolling in IMC for an hour last weekend in the missile- so I guess I will accept the risk sometimes, depending on the conditions and scenario.  Different strokes for different folks.

starting a new thread: what's the worst thing that's happened to you in IMC...

Edited September 20, 2015 by M016576

[WardHolbrook]

I wish I had that sort of passion for all things flight.  When I'm sitting in the ready room after briefing and know I'm getting ready to go fly intercepts at night in IMC through icing conditions, and know that not only will the administrative actions of just getting to and from the airspace will be higher risk, let alone the intercepts with a new student, it feels like anything but "just flying." It's not the "all systems go" bit that worries me, it's when my systems start failing (and I constantly evaluate that in my mind, as well as reevaluate my risk level realtime)... I guess I had a few "bad luck" moments early in my career that leave me pretty conservative, but that's for another thread. I've got about 1000hrs of IMC, much of it horizon-less nights over the ocean in stratus and CB type weather (Navy pilot for 10 years... Go figure... But at least mountains arnt much of a problem!).  I'll take the VMC daytime any day over IMC- particularly if I can control it, and if I'm flying a single engine prop as opposed to a twin engine jet.  That said, I did end up trolling in IMC for an hour last weekend in the missile- so I guess I will accept the risk sometimes, depending on the conditions and scenario.  Different strokes for different folks.

starting a new thread: what's the worst thing that's happened to you in IMC...

Ten years in the Navy - Thank you for your service! That saying is on the verge of becoming quaint - like "Have a nice day." - but I truly mean it.

I guess I should have counted all of those hours at night out over the ocean or droning along between layers on countless coast-to-coast trips, but I never did; just the time actually spent in clouds. In jets it accumulates very slowly - you spend most of the time CAVU on top and what little IMC you get is on climbout (but at 3000 to 4000 fpm it doesn't take long to climb up through the scuz) or on descent and approach. 

I spent 35 years flying corporate jets and doing all of the training and stuff that goes along with that profession. Prior to that, I spent 10 years flying corporate and charter in pistons and turboprops. Prior to that, I just flew my Champ and Luscombe around a lot. I've spent my share of time playing around in the weather. I've come to find instrument flying much more relaxing and less stressful. Like I said earlier, there comes a point in your flying where everything is so ingrained and automatic that flying is just flying whether or not you're IFR in IMC or VMC, whether or not it's day or night. (All bets are off when it comes to VFR flying. Trying to continue VFR in deteriorating VMC or IMC is one of aviation's biggest killers. Night VFR, if not IFR ready and willing, isn't much safer.)

Don't take what I'm saying wrong. I am probably the most anal retentive guy you know when it comes to flight planning and weather and the need for an appropriate amount of recurrent training - the more the better. But, assuming you're flying within your limitations (personal and aircraft) and you're in a well maintained airplane appropriately equipped for what you're asking it to do then there's nothing too much to be concerned about. Over the years, I've never had a problem in the airplane that I hadn't experienced multiple times in the sim (usually while hand-flying an approach to minimums. ) It's not bravado, it's just hard won confidence backed up by training and experience. The key to all of this is to stay within your personal and aircraft limitations and the key to that is ongoing training and the exercise of good judgement. Those too are the subjects of another thread or two.      

[bonal]

As a low time pilot I am so impressed by the incredible amount of experience that lives here on Mooney Space. Even though I will never be able to come close to most all of you it continues to inspire me to keep learning and I thank all who take the time to share their knowledge 

[M016576]

Ten years in the Navy - Thank you for your service! That saying is on the verge of becoming quaint - like "Have a nice day." - but I truly mean it.

I guess I should have counted all of those hours at night out over the ocean or droning along between layers on countless coast-to-coast trips, but I never did; just the time actually spent in clouds. In jets it accumulates very slowly - you spend most of the time CAVU on top and what little IMC you get is on climbout (but at 3000 to 4000 fpm it doesn't take long to climb up through the scuz) or on descent and approach. 

I spent 35 years flying corporate jets and doing all of the training and stuff that goes along with that profession. Prior to that, I spent 10 years flying corporate and charter in pistons and turboprops. Prior to that, I just flew my Champ and Luscombe around a lot. I've spent my share of time playing around in the weather. I've come to find instrument flying much more relaxing and less stressful. Like I said earlier, there comes a point in your flying where everything is so ingrained and automatic that flying is just flying whether or not you're IFR in IMC or VMC, whether or not it's day or night. (All bets are off when it comes to VFR flying. Trying to continue VFR in deteriorating VMC or IMC is one of aviation's biggest killers. Night VFR, if not IFR ready and willing, isn't much safer.)

Don't take what I'm saying wrong. I am probably the most anal retentive guy you know when it comes to flight planning and weather and the need for an appropriate amount of recurrent training - the more the better. But, assuming you're flying within your limitations (personal and aircraft) and you're in a well maintained airplane appropriately equipped for what you're asking it to do then there's nothing too much to be concerned about. Over the years, I've never had a problem in the airplane that I hadn't experienced multiple times in the sim (usually while hand-flying an approach to minimums. ) It's not bravado, it's just hard won confidence backed up by training and experience. The key to all of this is to stay within your personal and aircraft limitations and the key to that is ongoing training and the exercise of good judgement. Those too are the subjects of another thread or two.      

I appreciate the thanks- I'm still in, 4 years now as a F-15 instructor pilot in the guard.  No more carrier landings.

I think we're coming from the same direction.  It's not the "flying" part about IFR (or in IMC conditions) that I find difficult (I find it automatic... Really, just as you describe), it's the constant planning for the unknown and the heightened risk that goes along with that.  When I'm VMC, the options are typically better.  An electrical failure, for example, is almost a non-event.  But IMC, fuel or electrical problems become a bigger factor.  In the mooney, losing an engine in IMC vs VMC is a pretty big difference.  

Like you mention, the IFR flying is pretty easy and relaxing... But it's not the flying that I don't like about being IMC.  

If you want to build actual IMC fast in a jet, fly hornets in the navy: the Boat has a tendency to drive you right into the thunderstorms for launch and recovery- lots of actual... And no IFR that govern you.  Think VFR type flight but in IMC.  Just you, your radar and maybe a petty officer on a cruiser to "help" a little with deconfliction.  Those were the days!

 

in the Eagle, wintertime brings snow storms.  But the going to and coming from the field is no different than any other jet- high penetration to an ils- and honestly, the weather out here in southern Oregon is pretty good generally.  Lots of icing though in the winter.

[atn_pilot]

Keep in mind that the following advice is from someone with many thousands of hours, so if you're someone with a fresh instrument ticket, you need to be a lot more conservative until you build experience in IMC. That said, here's how I do it:

1. NEXRAD is great, but it's not airborne weather radar. I trust it to a certain extent, but that's a limited extent. It's great for finding large gaps in lines, or finding the edge of a line, but it's useless for picking your way through a line. For that, you really need airborne radar, or at least a storm scope. I usually go around lines unless I can find a large gap on NEXRAD that is no more than dark green. And by large, I mean large. A 20 mile gap can fill in in mere minutes when there is enough lifting activity. Don't play around with small gaps unless you've got airborne radar, and even then you need a good amount of experience in reading the returns.

2. Heavy rain is no big deal. Sure, it wears out the paint, but I budget for new paint quicker than it needs it anyway. Stay away from the red at all cost, and stay away from yellow unless it's dispersing and you're absolutely sure that it's in the later stages of dissipating. Dark green is no big deal. I promise you, your engine is not going to die from rain ingestion. If it did, part 135 freight pilots would be dropping like flies.

3. Ceilings are a very individual subject. I don't hesitate at all to fly when ceilings are at minimums. Other people don't feel comfortable with ceilings below 1,000 ft, because they just don't have any experience flying real approaches. The reality is that even when the ATIS says the ceilings are at 200 ft, they almost never are in a practical sense. What you'll see almost every time when you fly that approach is that there is a ragged bottom at 200 ft, but you can generally see the runway lights by 500 feet. In many years of airline flying, much of it flying CAT III equipment that could land itself in 0/0 conditions, I almost never needed it. Usually when I briefed an autoland because the ATIS was saying ceilings were at or below CAT I minimums, I ended up seeing the runway long before then and clicking off the autopilot. So I usually just carry extra contingency fuel when weather is forecast at minimums, but it never leads to a no-go decision. My suggestion is to practice lots of approaches under the hood until you can do them as second nature. Then wait for days when it's smooth IFR, and take a buddy to be a second set of eyes on the instruments and fly a bunch of practice approaches in actual IMC. Do that a few times when the weather allows until you feel just as comfortable doing that as you do under the hood. I promise you, with enough practice, instrument approaches to minimums are no more hair raising than visual approaches. I hate to see pilots afraid to fly their airplanes just because they've never put in the time to get the practice to feel comfortable. But by all means, never go flying unless you are comfortable.

[Andy95W]

I was an Army pilot. But right after my landings everyone keeps asking me if I was in the Navy? 

I was Infantry.  People question whether I was even taught how to land an airplane.

[marks]

I've got a couple of thousand hours of actual IFR and there comes a point when - IMC or VMC, Day or Night - it makes no difference it's just flying. I actually prefer IMC because it tends to keep the "less proficient" among us on the ground in conditions where being on your A game is really required. As far as enjoyment goes, after all of these years I still enjoy every moment in the air - whatever the conditions.   

IMC or VMC is not "just flying".  Lose your engine in IMC like the poor guy we discussed with the Bonanza who crashed in Plainville, MA or my own experience where the mechanic failed to correctly reinstall the fuel pressure gauge resulting in a fire that killed the engine, and the result in  hard IMC is likely to be very different vs. VMC.  Clearly, you are very experienced and therefore it sounds like you may be a bit complacent regarding risks to equivocate both IMC and VMC as "just flying"'.  My opinion only, but complacency, even when related to competency, is another risk to manage.     .