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WilliamR

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  1. Please note, when converting to an Encore, the brakes are the hardest to source. When Maxwell Aviation did my upgrade to Encore, despite telling me verbally and in writing they had all the parts including the brakes for the upgrade, they did not, which caused delays. William
  2. 1. Mooney prices went up 35% -50% on average since early 2020 from my inexact analysis (this is a private market). On a dollar basis, 231s typically went up less than 252s that went up less than Bravos and so on. 2. My 252 unscheduled maintenance costs averaged $75.00/hr or about $8,000/yr on top of any annual inspection costs (inspection, not maintenance that came out of the inspection) and other recurring costs based on hours (mags, prop, oil changes, etc). Turbo engine overhauls are $$$$ as noted above. I'm paying for a 252 engine overhaul now. All-in overhaul costs including freight, remove, and replace; $96,569.00. 10 years ago that would have been close to $75,000. All in, over 16 years, I spend about $110.77/hr in scheduled and unscheduled maintenance for a 252 excluding accruals for paint/interior and engine overhaul. None of this includes any upgrades. 3. I've noticed inventory growing (during Covid, at one time, there was only one 252 for sale) in 2022 and 2023. Sales prices have only modestly moderated, if at all in 2023. That compared to the early Piper Malibu market which I also watch very closely. There, inventory is materially up and sales prices are materially down. However, that market saw >50% market increase since 2020. 4. I watch the economy very closely including the general aviation market. It's my job. Assuming no major events, my guess is the Mooney market will see some modest increase in inventory and moderating of prices. I don't see pre-Covid prices unless there is a major, major event. So far, two major wars, and threats to GA from all angles (when it's there ever a threat?) really haven't made a dent in pricing. Operating costs are another story. Ask 5 economists what the market will do and you'll get 6 answers. 5. It's possible Mooney has been out of business (manufacturing) more than it has been in business. Viability of parts likely isn't going to change materially over the next several years. Lots of parts go into Mooneys that are not made by Mooney or if made by Mooney, that can't be replicated for a price. Then there is salvage as a parts source.
  3. I would agree. Especially, as the company said as much. Besides the quality issue, the bigger issue is a gross margin and working capital problem. Again, very common. Labor and commodity prices really hit hard last year for lots of companies. Look at the price of aluminum. Down from last year, but still very high on a historical basis. These are fixable issues, though. Van's turnaround consultants should be able to show a good path forward given the long historical success of the product. No, kit prices will likely not stay the same. GA is not all doom and gloom. I know of one seasoned GA company that is in the bank market now for a capital raise that is being very well received. Wrapped up a div recap on another this last spring that was an institutional deal. Saw a refi/upsize on another all bank deal this past summer that was oversubscribed. This is not stupid, cheap money chasing deals. That market died 18 mos. ago. William
  4. I've flown one or two K models with the manual system. As noted, this wasn't some work around. It was purpose built with an STC. Unfortunately, there was no annunciator like the vacuum or electric ones. So, I can't help. William
  5. @manu damaschinif you are a serious investor/purchaser, I would recommend calling Johnny Pollack through the company's phone number in the US at 800-456-3033. There may be a business broker who has a 1st stage deck to share. Johnny can get you in touch with who that is. To answer your question, the structure is very likely a C Corp. Hope that helps. I'm sure the company would appreciate any capital infusion it can get. William
  6. I recently purchased a FREM TSIO-360-SB replacing an MB. Most boutique engine shops were minimum 5 months and really they were closer to 6+ mos. Most also offered a'la cart pricing for things like exhaust, accessories, etc. So, it took work to compare costs to the all in- option that Continental/Airpower provides, but I was able to do it. I also considered any warranties. Given the shops I choose had good reps and had been in business decades, any counterparty risk from a warranty was minimal and comparable to the larger Airpower/Continental in my book. I went with the FREM given the shorter turn around time and total all in cost apples to apples was within a few thousand (couple percent of total installed cost) of using a boutique shop. I ordered the engine June 1 and it was shipped Sept. 23rd (I was warned at purchase delivery may take longer than the 75 days initially quoted). I see from my invoice the FREM engine cost was $85,224.00 assuming a core of $19,000. Core is due in Dec. As part of the overhaul I am upgrading to the Encore gross weight. I think that was another $17,500 with labor and parts (probably could be done cheaper, but I wanted turn-key and didn't want to be bothered shopping and collecting parts on my own). William
  7. The ceramic waxes have wildly less tolerance to heat that is often seen on the belly of an aircraft due to exhaust gases and breather oil and much less durability than a ceramic coating. This can be seen in a simple test taking a thin application on glass. Let dry for a couple days. Then see which is easier to remove. The wax will much more easily come off. That's why those waxes are so popular; can't f' it up. Mess up ceramic coating, and you're buffing it off and starting over. The pro ceramic coatings only sold to dealers and shops that have gone to training are even more durable. F that up and something more abrasive than buffing is needed to remove. If you want to reapply every 10 hours and worried about messing things up, then go with the wax. The right nose gear door to my plane takes the brunt of exhaust gases. It lost most of its ceramic coating protection in ~75 hours. The belly was ~125 hours. Note, ceramic coatings only need one coat. The second coat won't adhere to the first due to the now smooth finish. A good paint correction will make things a lot easier, too. No matter what, regular cleaning and protection of the belly is good insurance. Those exhaust gases are really corrosive, sticky, and hard to see on white paint. William
  8. seats and guides are laser cut rather than honed rotocoils break thus ending the valve rotation
  9. Big engine, low horsepower. Looks a lot like a Fleet but with a rounded tail. William
  10. Summary: I think your cost modeling is pretty dead on. I track my costs very, very closely after 20+yrs of Mooney ownership. Good luck on hangar space in ATL metro. $6,000/yr is maybe a little light. I didn't think LZU had any hangar space avail. and tie downs were thin, but that's a quick call to see avail and rates. Isn't Harbour Air something in the $550+ range for a hangar? Annual (inspection only) is a bit heavy. Probably $2,750 on average. However, $4,000 probably is well loaded for one time items plus routine maintenance costs. I split out annual cost (about $2,750) from other routine maint. like 500/hr mag inspections, vacuum pumps, etc that have short lives and then use the accrual method to derive an hourly cost of those things. Oil analysis is likely a little high. Should be about $35-50/oil change. My XM subscription is about $75/month using the boat subscription (same functionality as the aviator subscription), but honestly, I can't figure out what subscription they are charging me for (nor can they it seems). As noted, assume about $450-$550/yr for GPS subscription. Annual taxes for a $100,000 plane will run you about $2,000/yr. I think my bill is closer to $2,800/yr for an '86 252 in Chamblee/Dekalb County. Hope this helps. William
  11. Except if you want a daily driver with near equal performance, lower bills, or want to win at Le Mans (yes, I'm aware Ferrari just won, but Porsche has more wins and the most consecutive wins). Btw, anyone who compares a Lancair 4PT to a Columbia or even an ES should really understand the wildly different airframe features. William
  12. Matt, since you're at PDK, first I would suggest getting on the hangar and tie down wait list. The hangars are not expensive for the location, but the wait list is long (many years). Tie downs are likely still on a waitlist. No matter what plane you get, you will want that. Second, buy your last plane first. While a turbo Mooney is a large transition from say an 172/Archer, it's a big jump, but not insurmountable. There are people who jump from their PPL training right into an Acclaim. Training and commitment is key here. Cruising in the flight levels is both easier and harder just like instrument flying. Third, even jumping from a J to a K or an M, insurance will ask for training when stepping up. At your flight time, with no retract time, insurance will want at least 25 hours of retract and make specific training out of the gate. Living that dream with a new owner now with a J on the NW ramp. Do consider operating costs. A Bravo all in (maintenance accrual, fuel, ins, hangar, etc.) will be a little north of $300/hr. My 252 costs all in about $270/hr to fly. There's a thread floating around here of operating costs where I think I posted my financial model. Try and find that. I'm on the NE ramp with a 252 and live very close. I do a fair amount of checkouts/instruction including Mooneys on the field. Feel free to shoot me a PM. You're asking the right questions. Never hurts to be thinking two or three steps ahead. Happy to answer any questions or show you a few Mooneys. William
  13. Correct, getting a full route amendment right after departure can happen, but why not stack the odds in your favor? I mainly fly up and down the east coast of the US and northern Caribbean and instrument rated since 1991. I fully admit I have not seen it all. Picking up a clearance in the air (assuming VFR/VMC) is fine if that's what one wants to do. It's just not my preference. William
  14. I remember that run to the plane after getting the clearance by pay phone; passengers already loaded. Thanks for the ground lesson. I will look for the bill in the mail. I've never been a big fan of picking up an IFR clearance on departure, especially single pilot. Copying a full route clearance is a lot of heads down time in a VFR environ. Throw in some turbulence and hands are full, but that's me. William
  15. That makes sense, thanks. I missed the advise intentions time...clearance void at 18:30z advise by 18:35z. That's clearly a 91.123(a) violation; "When an ATC clearance has been obtained, no pilot in command may deviate from that clearance unless an amended clearance is obtained...". I assumed no one would take off squawking a void code. W
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