I'm not very adroit with the mechanical stuff, so I probably won't answer to your satisfaction. But, here goes....
In the process of trying to diagnose, we had already replaced the engine leads and sent the mags out for a serious once-over (a full overhaul wasn't deemed necessary). Since I was leaning very aggressively during ground operations, and STILL getting some weirdness during mag checks on run-up, my A&P decided to double-check the cylinder compressions (as mentioned, it just sent thru annual in May). Sure enough, cylinder #3 was sketchy. And, then I found a logbook entry from about 500 hours ago where that cylinder was acting up a little bit. But, as far as I can tell, nothing significant was ever done about it. Since I was (very luckily) able to find a brand new cylinder, I decided to replace it.
That, along with a minor adjustment with the mixture control, seems to have covered a multitude of sins.